{"id":306063,"date":"2024-03-06T07:41:31","date_gmt":"2024-03-06T06:41:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306063"},"modified":"2024-03-06T07:41:33","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T06:41:33","slug":"seismic-update-on-rapid-drop-off-of-sst-forecasted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306063","title":{"rendered":"Seismic update on rapid drop off of SST forecasted"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY JOE BASTARDI:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The startling drop off in (Sea Surface Temperatures) SSTs forecasted by the US-generated CFSV2 is not that big a deal in the La Nina areas. We knew that was coming last year and said so as part of the climate hypothesis I have developed. But it\u2019s the rest of the ocean that is amazing. If the CFSV2 is to be believed, the drop from now to November is unprecedented.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The Indian Ocean drop is mind-boggling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I have been pushing there is next to no way of knowing what is going on till after it occurs.  Our data buoys only cover an area of 1 every 111,200  square miles down to 6,000 ft, laughable given the average depth of the ocean is 14k feet and it has 99% of the energy of the ocean-atmosphere system. Its almost as if  the powers that be don\u2019t want to know what is happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I mentioned that I would report what Dr Viterito is supplying me with. Here is the latest:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hi Joe,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are seeing a leveling of mid-ocean global seismic activity. Here is the latest data from the GCMT catalog:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Two things to note here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1) The final tally isn\u2019t in yet for 2023. GCMT\u2019s catalog is 3 to 4 months behind (they currently have 2023 complete through October).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My note. This is what I am talking about. We have to wait to see if what you see starting above is continuing. What is going on is to sustain the warmth you need to keep it at high levels, any reversal would lead to cooling. Again, once the buoys see the cooling, this can get into the model. But who knows what the heck is going on. That the model is seeing this kind of drop is already startling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to Dr Viterito. By the way, there does seem to be a significant drop in total activity, and that may be a precursor to mid-ocean frequencies.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The correlations between global temperatures and our seismic signal are way too high (0.73) for this all to be a coincidence. Here is the complete analysis through the end of 2023:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

2) Global temperatures lag the seismic signal by 2 years. (My note: this would seem to argue that the warmer it is, the quicker a response may occur, which might make sense as it\u2019s tough to keep things so extreme\u2026 lesser variations would have a longer lag.) This year has started out very  warm (0.88 deg C above base) and even modest cooling will bring this back to recent norms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My note: This is laughable, if not negligent. It\u2019s absurd to that we think we can figure out what is going on in the ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equally important is that the ARGO deep data (the data from 6,000 m) is very sparse. As of 2019, there were something like 65 Argo Deep buoys in place, and, as it stands now, there are only a few hundred in operation. Furthermore, the total ARGO deep database will be derived from 1250 buoys. On a global scale, that\u2019s one deep buoy for every 111,200 square miles of ocean (or one deep buoy for each 333 x 333-mile grid square)!! Furthermore, plans are for it to be a concentrated network, with the majority of units situated in the tropical oceans and the Western Boundary Currents, not the mid-ocean ridges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I liked to tell my students, this is the B<\/strong>est A<\/strong>vailable D<\/strong>ocumented data, or BAD <\/strong>data for short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a final anecdote, I used to also tell my students that weather forecasting is akin to creating a painting, whereas climate analysis is like watching the paint dry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to me:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, this is going to be very interesting. But what a shame that we are making all these judgments on what is driving all this without looking at the source of most of the energy. But if the CFSV2 is right, this can not be explained from man-made sources. It\u2019s likely getting data showing cooling and if we see that there was a drop off, the hypothesis would have to have some merit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The startling drop off in (Sea Surface Temperatures) SSTs forecasted by the US-generated CFSV2 is not that big a deal in the La Nina areas. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":306071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The startling drop off in (Sea Surface Temperatures) SSTs forecasted by the US-generated CFSV2 is not that big a deal in the La Nina areas. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691827425,691827426,691820699],"class_list":{"0":"post-306063","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-best-available-documented-bad","9":"tag-indian-ocean","10":"tag-sea-surface-temperatures","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Ocean-sun-thailand.jpg?fit=2508%2C1672&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1hCv","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":403748,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403748","url_meta":{"origin":306063,"position":0},"title":"An early look at winter","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The threat of a cold winter looms. 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