{"id":306012,"date":"2024-03-05T18:24:41","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T17:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306012"},"modified":"2024-03-05T18:24:44","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T17:24:44","slug":"confronting-the-fear-of-climate-disasters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306012","title":{"rendered":"Confronting The Fear Of Climate Disasters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"488\" data-attachment-id=\"306017\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=306017\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?fit=1200%2C810&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,810\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0climate-crisis-0117201\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?fit=723%2C488&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?resize=723%2C488&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-306017\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?resize=1024%2C691&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?resize=300%2C203&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?resize=768%2C518&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From The <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.friendsofscience.org\/2024\/03\/04\/confronting-the-fear-of-climate-disasters\/\">Friends of Science Calgary<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Contributed by Robert Lyman \u00a9 2024. Robert Lyman\u2019s bio can be read&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.friendsofscience.org\/2019\/05\/29\/robert-lyman-background-and-experience\/\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Proponents of the thesis that humans are causing catastrophic climate change insist that changes in the earth\u2019s climate observed over the past century and a half are causing significant increases in extreme weather events and major economic losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Confronting-the-Fear-of-Climate-Disasters-FINAL.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Confronting-the-Fear-of-Climate-Disasters-FINAL.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-bf943b48-e889-4e23-968c-e964eed136f3\" href=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Confronting-the-Fear-of-Climate-Disasters-FINAL.pdf\">Confronting-the-Fear-of-Climate-Disasters-FINAL<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Confronting-the-Fear-of-Climate-Disasters-FINAL.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-bf943b48-e889-4e23-968c-e964eed136f3\">Herunterladen<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">United Nations organizations often support this view. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regularly issues reports on climate change and weather as though the two are inexorably linked. In May 2023, the WMO published a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/news\/economic-costs-of-weather-related-disasters-soars-early-warnings-save-lives\">report<\/a>&nbsp;entitled&nbsp;<em>Economic costs of weather-related disasters soars but early warnings save lives<\/em>. The reported economic losses rose significantly from about USD$184 billion in the 1970s to about USD 1.47 trillion from 2010-2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) periodically issues reports describing how disasters, linked allegedly to climate change, are harming agriculture and food security. In 2023, it issued a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/documents\/card\/en?details=cc7900en\">report<\/a>&nbsp;entitled&nbsp;<em>The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security<\/em>. It warned that \u201c<em>disasters are producing unprecedented levels of damage and loss to agriculture around the world\u2026Research aimed at deciphering the impact of climate change on agriculture indicates that climate change is likely to lead to more frequent anomalies and a decrease in agricultural production.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both reports neglected to provide context for their findings. In more than 80 percent of the disasters in the developed countries cited by the WMO, the economic losses were equivalent to less than 0.1 per cent of the countries\u2019 gross domestic product.<strong>&nbsp;Over the period 2000 to 2021 the global value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing rose by 84 percent from about USD 2.0 trillion to USD 3.7 trillion per year. In other words, global agricultural production was not \u201creduced\u201d by disasters<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seeks to define and assess what it considers to be real or potential adverse effects of climate change. Every few years the IPCC publishes an \u201cassessment report\u201d in which it attempts to set out the state of the knowledge. The most recent report was the Sixth Assessment Report, published in 2021. The executive summary of this report states that evidence of observed changes in extremes and their attribution to human influence has strengthened, in particular for extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones and compound extremes (including dry\/hot events and fire weather).It gives an impression, reflected in media reports, that the world faces a grave situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A more detailed reading of the assessment reveals an entirely different conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most revealing part of the report concerns the probability and timing of the emergence of \u201cclimate impact drivers\u201d and the related \u201cimpacts\u201d and the IPCC\u2019s collective judgments about whether the impacts are already occurring or may be expected to emerge in future. The only impacts for which the IPCC has a \u201chigh confidence\u201d of impacts already increasing are in mean air temperature, extreme heat, mean ocean temperature, and atmospheric carbon dioxide at the surface. There is also \u201chigh confidence\u201d of decreases in the dissolved oxygen in the ocean and in lake, river and sea ice. There is a \u201cmedium confidence\u201d that ocean salinity at the surface has already occurred. There is also \u201cmedium confidence\u201d that decreases in cold spells and in permafrost have already occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the rest of the potential climate impacts, there is a \u201clow confidence in the direction of change\u201d of most of the impacts that get almost endless media attention, including precipitation, aridity, drought, fire weather, cyclones and severe wind storms, snow and sea ice, sea levels, coastal erosion, ocean acidity and air pollution.&nbsp;<strong>The dire outcomes that so many in governments and the media predict are, in many cases, not confidently foreseen by the IPCC scientists even under the worst-case scenarios.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maybe the mainstream media should report this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the period 2000 to 2021 the global value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing rose by 84 percent from about USD 2.0 trillion to USD 3.7 trillion per year. In other words, global agricultural production was not \u201creduced\u201d by disasters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":306017,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Over the period 2000 to 2021 the global value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing rose by 84 percent from about USD 2.0 trillion to USD 3.7 trillion per year. In other words, global agricultural production was not \u201creduced\u201d by disasters.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691822332,691819743,691822868,691827412,691827413],"class_list":{"0":"post-306012","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-disasters","9":"tag-climate-propaganda","10":"tag-extreme-weather-events","11":"tag-food-and-agriculture-organization-fao","12":"tag-ipcc-scientists","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climate-crisis-0117201.jpg?fit=1200%2C810&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1hBG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":258084,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258084","url_meta":{"origin":306012,"position":0},"title":"Canada\u2019s green extremism is leading to disaster for its\u00a0economy and\u00a0political\u00a0elites","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A new paper from Net Zero Watch warns Canadian politicians that the economic and social pain they are causing through sweeping decarbonisation policies will soon become critical, and that the public will soon turn on them.","rel":"","context":"In \"Net zero\"","block_context":{"text":"Net zero","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=net-zero"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2023-05-19-at-09.50.26.png?fit=1200%2C627&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2023-05-19-at-09.50.26.png?fit=1200%2C627&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2023-05-19-at-09.50.26.png?fit=1200%2C627&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2023-05-19-at-09.50.26.png?fit=1200%2C627&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2023-05-19-at-09.50.26.png?fit=1200%2C627&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278643,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278643","url_meta":{"origin":306012,"position":1},"title":"Let\u2019s Not Pursue \u201cPeak Oil\u201d \u2013 The Risks to Society of a Global Oil Shortfall Due to Climate Fear","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cPeak Oil\u201d refers to the hypothetical point at which global crude oil production will hit its maximum rate, after which production will start to decline.\u00a0 At the forthcoming COP 28 conference in Dubai, a major agenda item will concern whether all parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00mad-max-fury-road-01.webp?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00mad-max-fury-road-01.webp?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00mad-max-fury-road-01.webp?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00mad-max-fury-road-01.webp?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00mad-max-fury-road-01.webp?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291790,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291790","url_meta":{"origin":306012,"position":2},"title":"The COP28 charade","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u2018All the world\u2019s a stage, and all the men and women merely players\u2019, wrote William Shakespeare. He might have been foreseeing the show recently concluded in Dubai, where over 100,000 people reportedly came to play their roles at COP 28, the 28th major climate policy summit.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0NZW_Charade.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0NZW_Charade.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0NZW_Charade.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0NZW_Charade.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0NZW_Charade.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":263419,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263419","url_meta":{"origin":306012,"position":3},"title":"Not Worth the Money \u2013 The Costs and Benefits Of Global Climate Policies","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate modelers attempt to predict the trends in global greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of these trends on the concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalents in the atmosphere, the consequent changes in average global temperatures and climate and then the effects of those changes on the world\u2019s economy and society, as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-stealing-money.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1146&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-stealing-money.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1146&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-stealing-money.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1146&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-stealing-money.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1146&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-stealing-money.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1146&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291517,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291517","url_meta":{"origin":306012,"position":4},"title":"Outcome Of COP 28 \u2013 Just The Facts","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 28th\u00a0Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 13, 2023. According to various reports, more than 100,000 people attended the conference and its associated events.","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5 degrees C. goal\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5 degrees C. goal","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5-degrees-c-goal"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0COP28-United-Arab-Emirates.jpg?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0COP28-United-Arab-Emirates.jpg?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0COP28-United-Arab-Emirates.jpg?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0COP28-United-Arab-Emirates.jpg?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0COP28-United-Arab-Emirates.jpg?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":230610,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=230610","url_meta":{"origin":306012,"position":5},"title":"AFR: 10 Climate Disasters in 5 Years Cost $1.5 Trillion","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"How much of that $1.5 trillion do they blame on climate change, vs natural storms which would have happened anyway?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00clip_image014-1.webp?fit=605%2C465&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00clip_image014-1.webp?fit=605%2C465&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00clip_image014-1.webp?fit=605%2C465&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=306012"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306012\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":306019,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306012\/revisions\/306019"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/306017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=306012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=306012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=306012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}