{"id":305277,"date":"2024-02-28T18:02:38","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T17:02:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305277"},"modified":"2024-02-28T18:02:41","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T17:02:41","slug":"no-atlantic-council-climate-change-is-not-making-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-unlivable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305277","title":{"rendered":"No, Atlantic Council, Climate Change is Not Making the Middle East and North Africa \u201cUnlivable\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A recent essay from The Atlantic Council, a \u201cnonpartisan organization that galvanizes U.S. leadership and engagement in the world,\u201d claims that the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are facing an \u201cexistential threat\u201d due to climate change. This is false. The countries in the region are mostly hot and arid climates, but there is no data showing that climate change is making things worse for them. In fact, by almost every measure imaginable, life is improving across MENA as the planet modestly warms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The essay, titled \u201cClimate crisis fuels change in MENA region<\/a>,\u201d actually does not discuss climate change very much at all in the body text. The vast majority of the report focuses on economic, political, and legal freedom, inequality, and prosperity in the region. The phrase \u201cclimate change\u201d only appears four times in the entire piece, all thrown into the concluding section, and what mention is made about it is entirely unsubstantiated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author Rabah Arezki claims that MENA is \u201cextremely exposed to the existential threat posed by climate change,\u201d and that it is \u201csimply making the Middle East and North Africa unlivable at a faster rate than any other region.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arezki goes on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSpecifically, temperatures have reached record highs and a water crisis is looming in the region, which could lead to heightened domestic tensions and interstate conflicts. The crisis is made worse by the inadequate governance of the water sector and other utilities, which has exacerbated the frustration of the citizenry over poor public services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The region also needs to transition away from fossil fuels. Oil prices have been persistently high and this has provided some respite to the many oil-exporting countries in the region. Yet, as the world moves away from fossil fuels, the vast reserves of oil and natural gas with which MENA is endowed will eventually become stranded\u2014and so will the capital investment in the sector.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These claims are factually incorrect. Almost all metrics that show how \u201clivable\u201d a country is have been getting better over time, not worse, amid recent warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP has skyrocketed in the MENA region since even just the 1990s, increasing by about 447 percent according to\u00a0data<\/a>\u00a0from the World Bank. (See figure below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Arezki claims that the region needs to transition away from fossil fuels, even as he admits that most of the gain in GDP for the region is due to the development, use, and international sale of fossil fuel\u2019s found there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if countries in Europe and North America \u201cmoved away\u201d from fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation, the vast majority of products in the world, including renewable energy products like wind turbines and solar panels, are manufactured with plastics and other materials that come from hydrocarbons. These products are not so easily abandoned. Other countries, like China<\/a>, have shown no interest at all in actually decreasing their fuel consumption, and so to claim that the reserves of oil and gas in MENA will become \u201cstranded\u201d is foolish on two fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crop yields are not being negatively impacted by any water crisis or heat, supposedly driven by climate change, rather yields are improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, cereal crop production and yields have improved substantially across Northern Africa and the Middle East over the last few decades. (See figure below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Since 1990:<\/p>\n\n\n\n