{"id":305080,"date":"2024-02-27T08:57:29","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T07:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305080"},"modified":"2024-02-27T08:57:32","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T07:57:32","slug":"the-climate-cargo-cult","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305080","title":{"rendered":"The Climate Cargo Cult"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"412\" data-attachment-id=\"305085\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=305085\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?fit=1536%2C874&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1536,874\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0-climate-carga-cult\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?fit=723%2C412&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?resize=723%2C412&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-305085\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?resize=1024%2C583&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?resize=300%2C171&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?resize=768%2C437&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?resize=1200%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?w=1536&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Julius Sanks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn general, we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this new law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation nature, with experiment or experience, compare it directiy with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn\u2019t make any difference how beautiful your guess is. It does not make any difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is \u2014 if it disagrees with experiment it is wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LIxvQMhttq4?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014 Dr Richard Phillips Feynman, Nobel Laureate,&nbsp;<em>The Character of Physical Law<\/em>&nbsp;(1999)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can watch him making the point&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=LIxvQMhttq4\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Would that we had Dr Feynman\u2019s ethical approach today! His thinking about the scientific process went beyond comparing theory with experiment. He was also well aware of other ways science could go wrong. In 1974 he gave the CalTech commencement speech. He titled it \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/calteches.library.caltech.edu\/51\/2\/CargoCult.htm\">Cargo Cult Science<\/a>.\u201d This speech is arguably the greatest speech on science ever presented. Why? Because in it, he examines&nbsp;<em>completeness<\/em>. Sadly, I have not found a video of him presenting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For those who are unfamiliar with the Cargo Cult, it appeared in various forms in Melanesia during the early to mid-20th Century. The best known, and the one to which Dr Feynman refers, was the John Frum Movement. During World War II, these cultists observed the belligerents using aircraft to move cargo, either by air-drop or landing on airstrips. Wanting this wealth for themselves, though knowing nothing about aviation, they tried to replicate factors they had observed. As Dr Feynman put it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>During the war they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they\u2019ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his head like headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas \u2014 he\u2019s the controller \u2014 and they wait for the airplanes to land. They\u2019re doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looked before. But it doesn\u2019t work. No airplanes land. So I call these things Cargo Cult Science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they\u2019re missing something essential, because the planes don\u2019t land.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/calteches.library.caltech.edu\/51\/2\/CargoCult.htm\">https:\/\/calteches.library.caltech.edu\/51\/2\/CargoCult.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dr Feynman then goes on to explain researchers should not only describe their findings; they should also report anything they know of that might make their findings invalid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And that is the link to the Climate Cargo Cult. Global Climate Warming Change alarmism is replete with examples of cherry-picked data, irrelevant data, bad logic, deception, and stuff that is just plain wrong. There is also a lot of wishful thinking and, of course, fear-mongering. Alarmist claims are often ridiculously easy to debunk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recent example relates to Greenland. A University of Leeds team, as described in a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.leeds.ac.uk\/news-environment\/news\/article\/5511\/greenland-s-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-being-replaced-by-vegetation\">press release<\/a>, claims melting ice is causing all kinds of problems there:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>An estimated 11,000 sq miles or 28,707 sq kilometres of Greenland\u2019s ice sheet and glaciers have melted over the last three decades, according to a major analysis of historic satellite records.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The total area of ice loss is equivalent to the size of Albania, and represents about 1.6 % of Greenland\u2019s total ice and glacier cover.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Where there was once ice and snow, there is now barren rock, wetlands and areas of shrub.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.leeds.ac.uk\/news-environment\/news\/article\/5511\/greenland-s-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-being-replaced-by-vegetation\">https:\/\/www.leeds.ac.uk\/news-environment\/news\/article\/5511\/greenland-s-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-being-replaced-by-vegetation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"362\" data-attachment-id=\"305083\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=305083\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0800x400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized.jpg?fit=800%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"800,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0800&amp;#215;400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0800x400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized.jpg?fit=723%2C362&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0800x400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized.jpg?resize=723%2C362&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-305083\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0800x400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized.jpg?w=800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0800x400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized.jpg?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0800x400-0-0-1-80-greenland_2_resized.jpg?resize=768%2C384&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Above Sydgletscher looking to Bowdoin Fjord, at Qaanaaq, north-west Greenland<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Since the 1970s, the region has been warming at double the global mean rate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.leeds.ac.uk\/news-environment\/news\/article\/5511\/greenland-s-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-being-replaced-by-vegetation\">https:\/\/www.leeds.ac.uk\/news-environment\/news\/article\/5511\/greenland-s-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-being-replaced-by-vegetation<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The press release publicizes&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-024-52124-1\">this paper<\/a>, which contains a lot of whining about climate change and its effect on Greenland. The paper opens, \u201cLand cover responses to climate change must be quantified for understanding Arctic climate, managing Arctic water resources, maintaining the health and livelihoods of Arctic societies and for sustainable economic development. This need is especially pressing in Greenland, where climate changes are amongst the most pronounced of anywhere in the Arctic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How fast is the ice melting? 30 years to melt 1.6% is&nbsp;<s>0.000533%<\/s>&nbsp;0.053% per year. That does not seem very fast. Indeed, at that rate it will take&nbsp;<s>18,750<\/s>&nbsp;187,500 years for the ice to disappear; but only if the ice is not replaced during future winters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>That is Climate Cargo Cult science.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Julius Sanks is an engineer and manager with experience developing weather forecasting systems and environmental satellites, among other things.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That is Climate Cargo Cult science.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":305085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"That is Climate Cargo Cult science.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818087,691818252,691821088],"class_list":{"0":"post-305080","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-global-warming","10":"tag-greenland","11":"tag-pseudoscience","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-climate-carga-cult.jpeg?fit=1536%2C874&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1hmE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":430605,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=430605","url_meta":{"origin":305080,"position":0},"title":"Climate Change and CO2 Derangement Syndrome","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/12\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"From January 2023 to April 2024, the temperature rose by a full degree Celsius. This increase was spectacular and inexplicable. The warming during the entire industrial period (from 1850 to the present), the main reason for the IPCC\u2019s concerns, was about one full degree Celsius. Established names in climate science,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0AQNz-3v_GUn7bhBqsq0byriNLYF6ycCo45QH7ELe2ZWCrgWn-ySePgmhDfB21nb3nn7qfa_7RgBKE8ObxFA7LNI8u44gTkbN1qUhL2K-YkoWfCG0psr_sRcVRJf8wA.jpeg?fit=1080%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0AQNz-3v_GUn7bhBqsq0byriNLYF6ycCo45QH7ELe2ZWCrgWn-ySePgmhDfB21nb3nn7qfa_7RgBKE8ObxFA7LNI8u44gTkbN1qUhL2K-YkoWfCG0psr_sRcVRJf8wA.jpeg?fit=1080%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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Elephants","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A new cargo cult is wedded to the notion that sunshine and breezes is all we need for peace and prosperity.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/0Screenshot-2022-09-09-101618.png?fit=919%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/0Screenshot-2022-09-09-101618.png?fit=919%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/0Screenshot-2022-09-09-101618.png?fit=919%2C671&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/0Screenshot-2022-09-09-101618.png?fit=919%2C671&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":207668,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=207668","url_meta":{"origin":305080,"position":2},"title":"The Guardian Stumbles into the \u201cTruthful Reporting\u201d Trap When it Comes to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent\u00a0press release\u00a0about a study from The Ohio State University (OSU) titled \u201cScience coverage of climate change can change minds \u2013 briefly,\u201d states \u201c[a]ccurate beliefs fade quickly, especially if challenged.\u201d The Guardian\u00a0newspaper\u00a0covered the story, but they blew the \u201caccurate beliefs\u201d mantra in the first sentence of their story by stating:\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar 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the \u201cClimate Crisis\u201d was not found in Greece \u2013 your computer would have reported \u201cError 404:\u00a0 Climate Crisis Not Found\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate crisis\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate crisis","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/02284607-R-Buckminster-Fuller-Quote-There-is-no-energy-crisis-only-a-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/02284607-R-Buckminster-Fuller-Quote-There-is-no-energy-crisis-only-a-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/02284607-R-Buckminster-Fuller-Quote-There-is-no-energy-crisis-only-a-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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Withdrawn!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/10\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"On January 29, a coalition of state Attorneys General from red states, led by the AG of West Virginia (JB McCuskey), had sent a letter to Judge Robin Rosenberg, the Director of the Center, asking for immediate withdrawal of the offending chapter.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate 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