{"id":303853,"date":"2024-02-22T15:36:40","date_gmt":"2024-02-22T14:36:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303853"},"modified":"2024-02-22T15:36:43","modified_gmt":"2024-02-22T14:36:43","slug":"out-of-transmission-revisited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303853","title":{"rendered":"Out Of Transmission Revisited"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Byce\u2019s Substack<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robert Bryce<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cenergy transition\u201d depends on massive expansions of our high-voltage transmission grid. But capacity additions are falling, and per-mile costs and utility product costs are soaring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proponents of the much-hyped \u201cenergy transition\u201d frequently claim that rapid decarbonization of the electricity sector can only be achieved with huge expansions of America\u2019s high-voltage transmission grid. We are told those expansions, totaling tens of thousands of miles of new capacity, must be completed in the next decade or two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once this \u201cgrid modernization<\/a>\u201d has been completed, the new grid will deliver juice from vast areas of rural America that have been paved with solar panels and wind turbines to consumers living in distant cities. In doing so, this new grid will deliver us to the Valhalla of \u201ca net-zero economy with high electrification of transport, industry, and buildings by midcentury<\/a>,\u201d in which, presumably, everyone is using \u201cclean\u201d energy that\u2019s too cheap to meter.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s a terawatt-size disconnect between the rhetoric and the reality. America isn\u2019t building anything close to the amount of high-voltage transmission capacity that the wind promoters, solar advocates, and spreadsheet jockeys claim is needed. Indeed, the latest numbers from Atlanta-based C Three Group show that the amount of new high-voltage transmission (230kV and above) built annually in the United States is flat or declining. Furthermore, the cost of building new high-voltage capacity and the components needed to expand the electric grid is skyrocketing. Meanwhile, all across rural America,  transmission projects are facing fierce resistance from local communities and some Native American tribes. Let\u2019s take a look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, the U.S. added about 1,251 miles of new high-voltage capacity. That\u2019s significantly below the average number of miles added to the U.S. power grid over the past two decades. According to C Three, which has the best information on transmission trends in the U.S., about 1,677 miles of new high-voltage capacity was added annually to the grid between 2008 and 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As seen in the graphic above, new capacity additions peaked in 2013, when Texas completed the CREZ lines<\/a>, a system of HV lines spanning some 3,600 miles. That $7 billion project is significant because the CREZ lines were all built intrastate. That is, they didn\u2019t cross any state boundaries, which made the permitting process much easier. In addition, Texas has very little federal land and relatively few state parks<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Costs are also soaring. Before diving into those numbers, reviewing the hype is essential. Last February, in the original \u201cOut Of Transmission<\/a>\u201d published in these pages,  I explained that billionaire investor John Doerr, who has funded a \u201csustainability\u201d school at Stanford University and is giving hundreds of millions of dollars to climate activist groups, claims we need enormous expansions of the grid to accommodate more wind and solar projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his 2021 book Speed & Scale: An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now<\/a><\/em>, Doerr lays out what he calls \u201cKey Emission Reduction Policies\u201d including a clean electricity standard that could, in theory anyway, cut emissions by at least 50% by 2025 and 100% by 2040. In what amounts to a footnote, Doerr explains that his modeling assumes \u201ca doubling of the transmission system above business as usual.\u201d But Doerr didn\u2019t deign to explain how that doubling will happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In that same article, I explained that in 2022, the Biden administration announced a $2.5 billion fund<\/a> to help bankroll the buildout of the nation\u2019s high-voltage transmission system. I cited a May 10, 2022, press release from the Department of Energy<\/a> which said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Independent estimates indicate that we need to expand electricity transmission systems by 60% by 2030, and may need to triple it by 2050 to meet the country\u2019s increase in renewable generation and expanding electrification needs.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Also, in February 2023, the Department of Energy released the \u201cNational Transmission Needs Study<\/a>,\u201d which claims the U.S. needs to build 47,300 gigawatt-miles of new power lines by 2035. The study didn\u2019t define gigawatt-miles. But it did say that \u201cin future scenarios with moderate load but high clean energy assumptions,\u201d the U.S. will need \u201ca 57% growth in today\u2019s transmission system.\u201d Given that the current grid has about 240,000 miles of high-voltage capacity<\/a>, that would require building roughly 136,000 miles of new capacity. The same report says, \u201cBy 2040, new transmission deployment is projected between 100,000 and 185,000 GW-mi (115,000 GW-mi median), a doubling in size of today\u2019s transmission system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last November, Jesse Jenkins, who heads the Zero Lab at Princeton University, told Utility Dive<\/em> that \u201cBy 2035 alone we\u2019re going to need to add about 75,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines<\/a>, enough to run from New York City to Los Angeles and back 15 times\u2026That sounds like a lot for a country not used to building big things. But we have built big things in the past, this is not unprecedented, and shouldn\u2019t be viewed as impossible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jenkins may be correct that it \u201cshouldn\u2019t be viewed as impossible.\u201d But the odds  of the U.S. building 75,000 miles of new high-voltage transmission over the next 10 years are, as my father used to say, \u201cslim and none, and Slim left town.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The math here is so simple even a Ph.D. could do it. Jenkins claims the U.S. must build 75,000 miles of transmission in 10 years, or 7,500 miles per year. But there\u2019s no precedent \u2014 none<\/em> \u2014 for adding that much capacity. Indeed, constructing that much new transmission would require a four-fold increase in the average number of line miles built annually since 2008. Furthermore, that pace of new capacity would have to be sustained for a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hard truth about the alt-energy\/net-zero\/energy transition hype is that almost no one \u2014 including Doerr, DOE, Jenkins, reporters at big media outlets, pundits, and others \u2014 has bothered to do the math. They did not calculate how much transmission we are building every year or how long it may take to achieve significant expansions of the power grid. In other words, it\u2019s easy to talk about adding transmission capacity. But building high-power lines is hard. Really hard. And the cost of building them is soaring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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According to C Three, recently acquired by Yes Energy<\/a>, each mile of new high-voltage capacity added to the grid in 2023 cost about $3.95 million. As seen in the figure above, that\u2019s nearly triple the per-mile cost recorded in 2008. During a recent phone interview, C Three\u2019s president and founder, Jean Reaves Rollins, told me that \u201ca big chunk\u201d of the surge in costs \u201cis due to the soaring cost of acquiring right of way and dealing with permits and regulatory compliance.\u201d Rollins, who has worked in the utility sector for decades, said building any high-power infrastructure is challenging. For instance, installing a 345kV substation, she said, can take three to five years. It requires experienced linemen, engineers, and lots of heavy equipment. \u201cThese big infrastructure projects don\u2019t happen quickly. The grid is enormously complex,\u201d she said. \u201cIt requires hundreds of suppliers and a lot of complicated engineering, not to mention acquiring rights of way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rollins is doubtful that significant quantities of new greenfield transmission will be built in the next few years. \u201cAbout the only way to add new capacity today is to upgrade the existing high-voltage transmission line you have,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the cost and difficulty of acquiring rights of way, electric utilities across the country are seeing staggering cost increases in the products they need to maintain and upgrade the grid. Matt Brandrup, the CEO of the Wisconsin-based Rural Electric Supply Cooperative, recently sent me the latest information on price increases for commodities like conductor and transformers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brandrup,\u00a0who was on the Power Hungry Podcast last March<\/a>, told me that \u201cRESCO\u2019s 2023 average electric utility product cost inflation rate on the distribution and transmission products we sell (transformers, underground\/overhead conductor, related hardware, poles, etc) finished at just over 10%.\u201d He noted that over the past three years, \u201cTransformers (single-phase transformers that feed the homes and small business and the larger three-phase transformers that feed the larger businesses and industrial type of loads) have all increased by\u00a050 to 75% depending upon the manufacturer.\u201d He continued, noting that the cost of primary underground conductor, the wire used in main underground circuits, has jumped by 50%, and the cost of overhead conductor (the wire used to feed pole-mounted transformers) has increased by 45%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As seen above, utility product costs have climbed steadily since 2017. Brandrup broke down the impact of this inflation on electric coops and other electricity providers. \u201cA $10,000,000 work plan budget (total cost of materials purchased by that member) in 2020 would now cost our member $14,800,000 in 2024 if they purchased the same exact material,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the construction and cost issues, transmission projects are being hindered by local opposition. In my May 26, 2023 piece, \u201c47,300 Gigawatt-Miles From Nowhere<\/a>,\u201d I wrote about the 345 kV Cardinal-Hickory Creek transmission project that aims to move juice from Iowa to Wisconsin. That 102-mile project, which initiated public involvement in 2014<\/a>, is now 98% complete. But it has been delayed by multiple legal challenges and is expected to cost $500 million, or roughly $5 million per mile, far more than the $3.9 million figure I cited above. The project includes 1.3 miles of wire that cross the Mississippi National Wildlife and Fish Refuge. In 2021, several conservation groups sued to stop the project. A lawyer for the plaintiffs explained the litigation is \u201creally an effort to preserve our public conservation lands from encroachment from massive transmission lines and pipelines<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October, in an embarrassing move, the Bureau of Land Management rescinded approval of the Rock Creek Wind Gen-Tie transmission line in southeast Wyoming after the Albany County Conservancy sued it. As reported in <\/a>Cowboy State Daily<\/a><\/em>, the line:  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Was proposed to connect the Rock Creek Wind project to two larger transmission lines that will carry wind energy out of Wyoming. The lawsuit claimed the approval process was improperly done, without required public notification and without opportunities for public participation, including public comments. All of that is required as part of the National Environmental Policy Act.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Last month,  the San Carlos Apache tribe, Tohono O\u2019odham Nation, the Center for Biological Diversity, and Tucson-based Archaelogy Southwest sued to stop the construction of a $10 billion high-voltage transmission project<\/a> that aims to connect a wind project in New Mexico to consumers in southern Arizona. The groups filed suit in federal court alleging that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management failed to comply with federal statutes when it approved the 500-kV  SunZia Southwest Transmission Project<\/a>. The 32-page complaint alleges<\/a> the $8 billion project will cause \u201cserious, irreversible adverse effects on Tribal cultural sites and sacred areas, including areas with human remains.\u201d They are seeking a restraining order or injunction to stop the project and require federal agencies to adhere to the provisions of the National Historic Preservation Act and Administrative Procedures Act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 6, two Minnesota counties \u2014 Meeker and Chippewa \u2014 adopted one-year moratoriums on wind and solar projects<\/a> because local regulators were concerned that the projects would result in the construction of transmission lines across their counties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s also widespread opposition on the East Coast to the proposed transmission projects needed to bring power ashore from offshore wind projects<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I could cite many more examples of the opposition to transmission here. But the punchline here is obvious: the high-voltage grid is expanding very slowly, the costs associated with it are soaring, and the opposition to such a vast expansion is real and growing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These facts indicate that the \u201cenergy transition\u201d to a grid mainly powered by far-flung wind and solar projects will not happen. That means we must use the existing rights of way and wires to the fullest extent possible. I will close by repeating what I wrote last year in \u201c47,300 Gigawatt-Miles From Nowhere<\/a>.\u201d I explained we won\u2019t see a quick expansion of the high-voltage grid:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Because of the physical limits on the system. Given these limits, policymakers aiming to decarbonize the electric sector should be looking at ways to utilize existing infrastructure, including wires and transformers, by building new nuclear plants on the sites where coal- or gas-fired power plants are being retired. That\u2019s what TerraPower hopes to do in Kemmerer, Wyoming<\/a> and other locations. In short, the electric grid we have today is largely the electric grid we are going to have. We should not be spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build a grid designed to accommodate the low power density of weather-dependent renewables like wind and solar. Instead, we should be building high-power-density, weather-resilient generation that can exploit our existing grid. That, of course, means nuclear energy.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

What I wrote last May still applies today. If we are serious about reducing CO2 emissions from the electric sector, that means building lots and lots of nuclear reactors. Building lots of new nuclear won\u2019t be cheap, quick, or easy. But it will be far more manageable (and probably more affordable) than trying to string tens of thousands of miles of new transmission lines across the American West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The \u201cenergy transition\u201d depends on massive expansions of our high-voltage transmission grid. But capacity additions are falling, and per-mile costs and utility product costs are soaring.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":303862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The \u201cenergy transition\u201d depends on massive expansions of our high-voltage transmission grid. 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Instead of defending itself against the escalating increase in electricity prices due to the high CO2 levy for power plants, capacities of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNGzE8_skynr5QJrljnGlBy8SHgOg2b58RqjRtEYT9vzEzDoD5L6xTphCjJRqShG28l7a4lFUAqiD_1E2i8myZfDIXea_4XVaiykpxG3DT3vTUunbNTVOLXfeHGxPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C757&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNGzE8_skynr5QJrljnGlBy8SHgOg2b58RqjRtEYT9vzEzDoD5L6xTphCjJRqShG28l7a4lFUAqiD_1E2i8myZfDIXea_4XVaiykpxG3DT3vTUunbNTVOLXfeHGxPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C757&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNGzE8_skynr5QJrljnGlBy8SHgOg2b58RqjRtEYT9vzEzDoD5L6xTphCjJRqShG28l7a4lFUAqiD_1E2i8myZfDIXea_4XVaiykpxG3DT3vTUunbNTVOLXfeHGxPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C757&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNGzE8_skynr5QJrljnGlBy8SHgOg2b58RqjRtEYT9vzEzDoD5L6xTphCjJRqShG28l7a4lFUAqiD_1E2i8myZfDIXea_4XVaiykpxG3DT3vTUunbNTVOLXfeHGxPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C757&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNGzE8_skynr5QJrljnGlBy8SHgOg2b58RqjRtEYT9vzEzDoD5L6xTphCjJRqShG28l7a4lFUAqiD_1E2i8myZfDIXea_4XVaiykpxG3DT3vTUunbNTVOLXfeHGxPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C757&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":271685,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271685","url_meta":{"origin":303853,"position":4},"title":"Biden\u2019s Impossible Dream: US Wind & Solar Energy \u2018Transition\u2019 Pure\u00a0Fantasy","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Believe the MSM, and you\u2019d think that the grand wind and solar \u2018transition\u2019 is a race that\u2019s already won. Peel the onion back, however, and you\u2019ll find a very different picture, indeed. The wilder claims from rent-seekers the louder the cheers of witless approval from the stands.","rel":"","context":"In \"cost of batteries\"","block_context":{"text":"cost of batteries","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cost-of-batteries"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":403011,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403011","url_meta":{"origin":303853,"position":5},"title":"Germany: Amprion CEO warns- power shutdowns threaten in autumn","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The energy supply in Germany is facing critical months. Christoph M\u00fcller, head of the transmission system operator Amprion, expects power shutdowns and very high electricity prices. At the same time, he doubts the coal phase-out and sees the energy transition endangered by a lack of power plant capacities.","rel":"","context":"In \"coal phase-out\"","block_context":{"text":"coal phase-out","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=coal-phase-out"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMW35-MbNWTsJuv_XZ2kVV5qPcuT7_iRpBpCSskWxoJmZwLRpl66qOMPCKULkboQK_vt_5IsZGGXsl0YSQJsh87LVAbwcBx6mHSFMiO9Zs8iuL8RBxNDV1N4FaC9bfVCshurUJoacbcViR53VZ3K4vfZrPGcg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMW35-MbNWTsJuv_XZ2kVV5qPcuT7_iRpBpCSskWxoJmZwLRpl66qOMPCKULkboQK_vt_5IsZGGXsl0YSQJsh87LVAbwcBx6mHSFMiO9Zs8iuL8RBxNDV1N4FaC9bfVCshurUJoacbcViR53VZ3K4vfZrPGcg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMW35-MbNWTsJuv_XZ2kVV5qPcuT7_iRpBpCSskWxoJmZwLRpl66qOMPCKULkboQK_vt_5IsZGGXsl0YSQJsh87LVAbwcBx6mHSFMiO9Zs8iuL8RBxNDV1N4FaC9bfVCshurUJoacbcViR53VZ3K4vfZrPGcg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMW35-MbNWTsJuv_XZ2kVV5qPcuT7_iRpBpCSskWxoJmZwLRpl66qOMPCKULkboQK_vt_5IsZGGXsl0YSQJsh87LVAbwcBx6mHSFMiO9Zs8iuL8RBxNDV1N4FaC9bfVCshurUJoacbcViR53VZ3K4vfZrPGcg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMW35-MbNWTsJuv_XZ2kVV5qPcuT7_iRpBpCSskWxoJmZwLRpl66qOMPCKULkboQK_vt_5IsZGGXsl0YSQJsh87LVAbwcBx6mHSFMiO9Zs8iuL8RBxNDV1N4FaC9bfVCshurUJoacbcViR53VZ3K4vfZrPGcg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=303853"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":303863,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303853\/revisions\/303863"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/303862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=303853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=303853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=303853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}