{"id":301611,"date":"2024-02-13T12:49:45","date_gmt":"2024-02-13T11:49:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301611"},"modified":"2024-02-13T12:49:47","modified_gmt":"2024-02-13T11:49:47","slug":"february-arctic-ice-jumps-over-15-wadhams-a-month-early","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301611","title":{"rendered":"February Arctic Ice Jumps Over 15 Wadhams a Month\u00a0Early"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average in the last 12 years occurs on day 62 at 15.07M before descending. Most years are able to clear 15M, but in the five previous years only 2014 and 2016 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short. Now on February 11, 2024 (day 42) Arctic ice extent has already leaped over that bar 20 days early.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The graph shows how rapidly the Arctic froze this year, reaching 14.4M km2 extent already on January 24.  Then the extent waffled around that level, until suddenly a Hockey Stick shape appeared when 600k km2 of ice was added in just the last four days. That is 400k km2 above average, and well above many other years, including 2006.  SII is also lagging at 400k km2 lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table shows the distribution of ice compared to day 45 averages and other years on that day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region<\/strong><\/td>2024042<\/strong><\/td>Day 45 Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2024-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2006045<\/strong><\/td>2024-2006<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>15040629<\/td>14687838<\/td>352791<\/td>14419407<\/td>621223<\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>1070983<\/td>1070317<\/td>667<\/td>1069711<\/td>1273<\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>966006<\/td>965761<\/td>245<\/td>966006<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>1087137<\/td>1087131<\/td>6<\/td>1087103<\/td>35<\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>897845<\/td>897837<\/td>8<\/td>897773<\/td>71<\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>934647<\/td>908486<\/td>26161<\/td>932726<\/td>1920<\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>662793<\/td>582078<\/td>80715<\/td>530801<\/td>131992<\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>825638<\/td>622774<\/td>202864<\/td>579677<\/td>245961<\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>1340370<\/td>1456370<\/td>-115999<\/td>1227497<\/td>112873<\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>854860<\/td>853383<\/td>1478<\/td>852715<\/td>2145<\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>1260903<\/td>1260579<\/td>325<\/td>1257433<\/td>3470<\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>3233243<\/td>3208074<\/td>25168<\/td>3198987<\/td>34255<\/td><\/tr>
 (12) Bering_Sea<\/td>631508<\/td>700745<\/td>-69237<\/td>889518<\/td>-258010<\/td><\/tr>
 (13) Baltic_Sea<\/td>136308<\/td>90991<\/td>45317<\/td>79904<\/td>56404<\/td><\/tr>
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk<\/td>1101713<\/td>923694<\/td>178019<\/td>759197<\/td>342516<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Pacific basins show a moderate deficit in Bering Sea offset by a large 178k km2 surplus in Okhotsk.  Baffin Bay is down 120k km2, offset by Greenland Sea over 200k km2 and Barents up 81k km2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These results fly in the face of those claiming for years that Arctic ice is in a \u201cdeath spiral.\u201d  More sober and clear-eyed observers have called out the alarmists for their exaggerations.  A recent example comes from Allan Alsup Jensen at Nordic Institute<\/strong> of Product Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, Denmark.  His December 2023 paper is Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.<\/strong><\/a>  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2007 no significant decline has been observed<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The NSIDC<\/strong> website, IPCC\u2019s report<\/strong>s and some scientific papers have announced that the Arctic<\/strong><\/em>
Sea ice extent,<\/strong> when it is lowest in September<\/strong> month, in recent years has declined dramatically,<\/strong><\/em>
and<\/strong> in few decades the sea ice is supposed to disappear completely in the summer.<\/strong> In that way<\/em>
new and shorter ships routes will open up north of the continents.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The facts are<\/strong>, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual<\/em>
variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007<\/strong>. However, before that time period,<\/em>
from 1978 to 1996, the downward trend was minimal<\/strong>, and<\/strong> in the last 17 years from 2007 to 2023<\/strong><\/em>
the downward trend has also been about zero.<\/strong> Therefore, there is no indication that we should<\/strong><\/em>
expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely<\/strong>, as predicted, in one or two decades.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Regarding the extent of the\u00a0summer (February) sea ice at the Antarctic<\/strong>, the downward trend during the years 1979-2021 was very small but in 2022 and 2023 a considerable decline was observed, and a decline was also clearly observed for the whole period of\u00a02007- 2023.<\/strong>\u00a0That was in contradiction to what happened in the Arctic. The pattern of the annual levels was not the same for the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating\u00a0different drivers in the North and the South.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 4: The minimum extent of the sea ice at Antarctic
in February month 1979-2023 (data\u00a0from NSIDC.org)<\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

These data show that there is\u00a0no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic<\/strong><\/em>
and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations<\/strong>\u00a0in the atmosphere as<\/em>
proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual
\nvariations and it has\u00a0declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":301621,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual\nvariations and it has\u00a0declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823383,691826899,691818605,691826900,691826898],"class_list":{"0":"post-301611","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-691823383","9":"tag-allan-alsup-jensen-at-nordic-institute","10":"tag-arctic","11":"tag-arctic-sea-ice-extent","12":"tag-february-arctic-ice","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/OIGP-2.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1gsH","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":305175,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305175","url_meta":{"origin":301611,"position":0},"title":"Big 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