{"id":301408,"date":"2024-02-12T14:19:44","date_gmt":"2024-02-12T13:19:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301408"},"modified":"2024-02-12T14:19:47","modified_gmt":"2024-02-12T13:19:47","slug":"tipping-is-optional","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301408","title":{"rendered":"Tipping Is Optional"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"301419\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=301419\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,768\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AMOC-1024&amp;#215;768-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301419\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=800%2C600&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/02\/11\/tipping-is-optional\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was greeted this morning by a CNN headline saying \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/09\/climate\/atlantic-circulation-collapse-weather-climate\/index.html\">Critical Atlantic Ocean current system is showing early signs of collapse, prompting warning from scientists<\/a>\u201c. YIKES! Be very afraid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CNN article opens by saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather \u2014 leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scary stuff, all right. It is referring to a study in Science magazine,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk1189#body-ref-R2\">Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s the resurrection of another \u201ctipping point\u201d scare. And of course, despite the title, rather than being \u201cphysics-based\u201d this study is actually \u201cmodel-based\u201d. It\u2019s a study of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC). Here\u2019s what the AMOC looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"553\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"301410\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=301410\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-graphic.webp?fit=553%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"553,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AMOC-graphic\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-graphic.webp?fit=553%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-graphic.webp?resize=553%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-graphic.webp?w=553&amp;ssl=1 553w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-graphic.webp?resize=230%2C300&amp;ssl=1 230w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 1. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC). Red is surface currents, orange is descending, blue is deep return currents. Graph at the bottom shows the AMOC flow measured at 26.5\u00b0N, in units of Sverdrups (abbreviated \u201cSv\u201d, 1 Sv = 10<sup>6<\/sup>\u00a0cubic meters per second)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, actually, they do start out with physical measurements, viz:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Continuous section measurements of the AMOC, available since 2004 at 26\u00b0N from the RAPID-MOCHA array, have shown that the AMOC strength has decreased by a few Sverdrups (1 Sv = 10<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;m<sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;s<sup>\u22121<\/sup>) from 2004 to 2012, and thereafter, it has strengthened again.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not mentioned is that this increase in the AMOC strength has continued up until the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/os.copernicus.org\/articles\/16\/863\/2020\/os-16-863-2020.pdf\">latest study<\/a>&nbsp;in 2018. So in the real world, there\u2019s no indication of any collapse in the AMOC. There\u2019s no \u201ctipping point\u201d in sight, it\u2019s actually slightly strengthening \u2026 go figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So why do they say there\u2019s a possible tipping point that could lead to a collapse?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A model, of course. In this case, it\u2019s the CESM, the Community Earth System Model. What they did was to start up the model, then add modeled freshwater very gradually to the modeled North Atlantic, presumably simulating a melting of the Greenland ice or somesuch which might shut down the AMOC. Here\u2019s their description:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A quasi-equilibrium approach is followed by adding a slowly varying freshwater flux anomaly F<sub>H<\/sub>&nbsp;in the North Atlantic over the region between latitudes 20\u00b0N and 50\u00b0N. This freshwater flux anomaly is compensated over the rest of the domain, as shown in the inset of Fig. 1A. We linearly increased the freshwater flux forcing with a rate of 3 \u00d7 10<sup>\u22124<\/sup>&nbsp;Sv year<sup>\u22121<\/sup>&nbsp;until model year 2200, where a maximum of F<sub>H<\/sub>&nbsp;= 0.66 Sv is reached.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And what did they find? Well, they found that in the model year 1,758, which in our terms is the year 3782 AD, the AMOC fell off a cliff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IMPENDING TIPPING POINT CATASTROPHE IN 3782 AD! EVERYONE PANIC!!!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"541\" data-attachment-id=\"301412\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=301412\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?fit=720%2C541&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,541\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-153\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?fit=720%2C541&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?resize=720%2C541&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-153.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 2. Model results showing AMOC tipping point. Figure 1A from the study linked above.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now if you follow my work, you\u2019ll know that I often ask the most impertinent questions. So I got to thinking \u2026&nbsp;<em>just how much modeled fresh water have they added?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Trigger Warning:<\/strong>\u00a0the next part involves that dreaded creature \u201cmath\u201d, so if you\u2019re allergic to math, just skip to the last line of the bold section below \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"567\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"301413\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=301413\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-154.png?fit=567%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"567,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-154\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-154.png?fit=567%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-154.png?resize=567%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-154.png?w=567&amp;ssl=1 567w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-154.png?resize=236%2C300&amp;ssl=1 236w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To continue with the mathiness, when the tipping point occurred in 3782 AD, they were adding 0.527 Sverdrups (\u201cSv\u201d) of fresh water (top scale, Figure 2). That means on average over the entire period, they were adding half of that, 0.264 Sverdrups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, a Sverdrup is a million cubic meters per second. So over the 1,758 model years from the start up to the tipping point, they\u2019ve added a total of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>0.264 Sv * 10<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;cubic meters per second\/Sv * 1758 years * 31,556,926 seconds per year \/ 10<sup>9<\/sup>&nbsp;cubic meters per cubic kilometer =<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>14,629,305 cubic kilometers of modeled fresh water added.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, fourteen million cubic kilometers of water, that\u2019s a very big number. So let\u2019s compare it to something that\u2019s also very big \u2026 say the total volume of water in the entire Greenland Ice Cap. Here\u2019s that comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"628\" data-attachment-id=\"301415\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=301415\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-155.png?fit=720%2C628&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,628\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-155\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-155.png?fit=720%2C628&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-155.png?resize=720%2C628&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301415\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-155.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-155.png?resize=300%2C262&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 3. Comparison of the volume of water contained in the Greenland Ice Cap with the volume of freshwater added to the model from the start of the run until the tipping point.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mind boggles \u2026 like I said, tipping is optional \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not much else left to say about that. I\u2019m reminded of two of Mark Twain\u2019s quotes, viz:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">and<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Mississippi between Cairo and New Orleans was twelve hundred and fifteen miles long one hundred and seventy-six years ago. . . . Its length is only nine hundred and seventy-three miles at present. \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In closing, here\u2019s a bit of history regarding so-called \u201ctipping points\u201d from the unquestioned king of climate alarmism, NASA\u2019s very own Dr. James Hansen \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"712\" height=\"628\" data-attachment-id=\"301416\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=301416\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-156.png?fit=712%2C628&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"712,628\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-156\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-156.png?fit=712%2C628&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-156.png?resize=712%2C628&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-301416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-156.png?w=712&amp;ssl=1 712w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-156.png?resize=300%2C265&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Riiight \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here in our redwood forest home near the Northern California coast, the giant storms of the Pineapple Express have rolled on by. Torrential rain, gale-force winds. We were without power for five days, trees and power poles down everywhere. Our fossil-fueled generator worked like a champ \u2026 and after the storm, today is sunny. So I climbed onto the roof, cleaned the gutters, and washed the skylights. What\u2019s not to like?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My very best to all,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>As Usual<\/strong>: I ask folks to quote the exact words they\u2019re discussing, it avoids endless misunderstandings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>My Other, Often Controversial, Writings<\/strong>: My blog is \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com\/\">Skating Under The Ice: A Journal of Diagonal Parking in a Parallel Universe<\/a>\u201c. And over on X, aka Twitter, I just today got my 10,000th follower \u2026&nbsp;@weschenbach for those interested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I was greeted this morning by a CNN headline saying \u201cCritical Atlantic Ocean current system is showing early signs of collapse, prompting warning from scientists\u201c. YIKES! Be very afraid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":301419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"I was greeted this morning by a CNN headline saying \u201cCritical Atlantic Ocean current system is showing early signs of collapse, prompting warning from scientists\u201c. YIKES! Be very afraid.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691826885,691826886,691826888,691826887],"class_list":["post-301408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-current-amoc","tag-cnn-article","tag-community-earth-system-model-cesm","tag-model-based","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1gpq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":270153,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270153","url_meta":{"origin":301408,"position":0},"title":"No CNN, Gulf Stream is Not\u00a0Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/29\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The averaged AMOC projections from\u00a0climate models\u00a0under all the IPCC emissions\u00a0scenarios all show an AMOC decline, but not a collapse (a \u201chigh confidence\u201d conclusion). Some individual climate model runs do show a future collapse in the AMOC, so the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":301408,"position":1},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417967,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417967","url_meta":{"origin":301408,"position":2},"title":"Yahoo\u2019s Waning Ocean Current Claims Are Hyperbolic and False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Yahoo News article, \u201cExperts warn ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean will be direct threat to dozens of nations: \u2018Consequences for at least 1,000 years to come,\u2019\u201d by Timothy McGill, claims a new modeling study shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC,) would intensify Southern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":440435,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=440435","url_meta":{"origin":301408,"position":3},"title":"New Study Narrows AMOC Projections to ~51% Weakening by 2100, But Direct Observations Show Recent Stabilization","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/19\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cCritical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought\u201d This headline, which appeared in April 2026 media coverage, refers directly to the Portmann et al. paper. The study uses statistical observational constraints (real temperature and salinity data) on CMIP6 climate models. It concludes that the models projecting the largest\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-New-Study-Narrows-AMOC-Projections-to-51-Weakening-by-2100-But-Direct-Observations-Show-Recent-Stabilization.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-New-Study-Narrows-AMOC-Projections-to-51-Weakening-by-2100-But-Direct-Observations-Show-Recent-Stabilization.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-New-Study-Narrows-AMOC-Projections-to-51-Weakening-by-2100-But-Direct-Observations-Show-Recent-Stabilization.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-New-Study-Narrows-AMOC-Projections-to-51-Weakening-by-2100-But-Direct-Observations-Show-Recent-Stabilization.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-New-Study-Narrows-AMOC-Projections-to-51-Weakening-by-2100-But-Direct-Observations-Show-Recent-Stabilization.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301708,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301708","url_meta":{"origin":301408,"position":4},"title":"No, CNN and Other Media Outlets, Climate Change Is Not Causing the Ocean Circulation to Collapse","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/14\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent CNN headline, \u201cCritical Atlantic Ocean current system is showing early signs of collapse, prompting warning from scientists\u201c misleads its readers into believing that a collapse of a critical Atlantic Ocean current is pending. This is false.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-current-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00SEI_165307949.webp?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00SEI_165307949.webp?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00SEI_165307949.webp?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00SEI_165307949.webp?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00SEI_165307949.webp?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272988,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272988","url_meta":{"origin":301408,"position":5},"title":"The &#8216;Gulf Stream&#8217; will not collapse in 2025: What the alarmist headlines got wrong","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Those following the latest developments in climate science would have been stunned by the jaw-dropping headlines last week proclaiming the\u00a0\"Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests\"\u2014which responded to a\u00a0recent publication in\u00a0Nature Communications.","rel":"","context":"In \"alarmist headlines\"","block_context":{"text":"alarmist headlines","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alarmist-headlines"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=301408"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301408\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":301420,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301408\/revisions\/301420"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/301419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=301408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=301408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=301408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}