{"id":300905,"date":"2024-02-10T12:32:29","date_gmt":"2024-02-10T11:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300905"},"modified":"2024-02-10T12:32:32","modified_gmt":"2024-02-10T11:32:32","slug":"climate-change-row-as-british-scientists-claim-day-after-tomorrow-modelling-is-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300905","title":{"rendered":"Climate change row as British scientists claim \u2018Day After Tomorrow\u2019 modelling is wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prediction by Dutch team that vital Atlantic system could reach a tipping point and trigger new ice age has been \u2018forced\u2019, say experts.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aclimate model predicting a devastating \u2018Day After Tomorrow\u2019 collapse of ocean systems has been criticised for relying on \u2018entirely unrealistic\u2019 scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Dutch team from Utrecht University published work in the journal of Science Advances this week suggesting that the\u00a0Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation<\/a>\u00a0(AMOC) could reach a tipping point, triggering a new ice age. The Telegraph<\/a> has the story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AMOC transports heat and salt throughout the world\u2019s oceans and helps regulate the global climate, driving the Gulf Stream that keeps Britain warmer than it should be for its northerly latitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the apocalyptic science fiction film The Day After Tomorrow, the ocean system is disrupted by climate change<\/a>, plunging the northern hemisphere into a permanent winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although ice-core data suggests the AMOC can switch off, recent sophisticated modelling has not been able to reproduce the effect, leading many scientists to think a collapse is unlikely to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new study claims to have shown that AMOC is \u201con route to tipping\u201d, a prospect that the authors say is \u201cbad news for the climate system and humanity\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However British scientists warned that the outcome had been \u201cforced\u201d by using unlikely variables, such as assuming large influxes of freshwater into the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof Jonathan Bamber, director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre at Bristol University, said: \u201cThey did this by imposing a huge freshwater forcing to the North Atlantic that is entirely unrealistic for even the most extreme warming scenario over the next century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTheir freshwater forcing applied to the North Atlantic is equivalent to six cm\/year of sea level rise by the end of the experiment, which is more than seen during the collapse of the ice sheet that covered North America during the last glaciation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that the AMOC is unlikely to collapse this century, and many scientists do not believe it will fail even if the climate continues to warm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observational data for the ocean system only goes back to 2004, making it difficult to predict, and because it spans the globe, most models cannot account for all the nuances and influences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commenting on the new research, Prof Andrew Watson, of Exeter University, said \u201cThey say it suggests that \u2018the present day AMOC is on route to tipping\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Push it quite hard\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis sounds alarming, but it\u2019s important to note that this is not the same as saying collapse is going to happen imminently. They have to run their model for a long time (1,700 years) and push it quite hard to make the collapse happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cModels are not reality. The real system may be more, or less, prone to collapse than this model suggests.\u201d<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full story here<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prediction by Dutch team that vital Atlantic system could reach a tipping point and trigger new ice age has been \u2018forced\u2019, say experts.
\n\u201cModels are not reality. The real system may be more, or less, prone to collapse than this model suggests.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":300908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Prediction by Dutch team that vital Atlantic system could reach a tipping point and trigger new ice age has been \u2018forced\u2019, say experts.\n\u201cModels are not reality. The real system may be more, or less, prone to collapse than this model suggests.\u201d","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824517,691818056,691818153,691826839],"class_list":{"0":"post-300905","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-meridional-ocean-circulation-amoc","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-models","11":"tag-day-after-tomorrow","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/03465233.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ghj","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":253777,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253777","url_meta":{"origin":300905,"position":0},"title":"\u201cThe Day After Tomorrow\u201d to Happen in the Next Few Decades?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A claim that a \u201cThe Day After Tomorrow\u201d style global warming driven ice age is imminent \u2013 but we\u2019ve been looking at the wrong ocean.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\u2019s waters\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica\u2019s waters","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarcticas-waters"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/055a3d048fd1d079e9a7f3d2e565dfe91.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/055a3d048fd1d079e9a7f3d2e565dfe91.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/055a3d048fd1d079e9a7f3d2e565dfe91.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/055a3d048fd1d079e9a7f3d2e565dfe91.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/055a3d048fd1d079e9a7f3d2e565dfe91.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269746,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269746","url_meta":{"origin":300905,"position":1},"title":"Climate Disaster Study: Gulf Stream Could Collapse as Early as 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An AMOC collapse is believed to have caused the\u00a0Younger Dryas, an abrupt return to Northern Hemisphere ice age conditions which occurred 12,900 years ago, which lasted over a thousand years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417967,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417967","url_meta":{"origin":300905,"position":2},"title":"Yahoo\u2019s Waning Ocean Current Claims Are Hyperbolic and False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Yahoo News article, \u201cExperts warn ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean will be direct threat to dozens of nations: \u2018Consequences for at least 1,000 years to come,\u2019\u201d by Timothy McGill, claims a new modeling study shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC,) would intensify Southern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":203446,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=203446","url_meta":{"origin":300905,"position":3},"title":"Model vs Model: Is the North Atlantic Current Collapsing?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall h\/t Dr. Willie Soon; 12,900 years ago, the North Atlantic Current failed, likely\u00a0due to the emptying of an enormous glacial lake. This catastrophic lake failure is believed to have disrupted ocean currents, which led to an abrupt return to ice age conditions which lasted for over\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-38.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-38.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-38.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-38.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414279,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414279","url_meta":{"origin":300905,"position":4},"title":"\u00a0Is The Gulf Stream Really Collapsing? Debunking Another Climate Doomsday Claim","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The idea that global warming could paradoxically shut down the Gulf Stream, plunging Europe into a new cold spell\u2014a scenario popularized by the film\u00a0The Day After Tomorrow\u2014is a powerful narrative.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270100,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270100","url_meta":{"origin":300905,"position":5},"title":"Wrong, USA Today, Ocean Currents Aren\u2019t Near Collapse","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This claim is based on computer model projections of the future based assumptions about past ocean current behavior and the factors which drive ocean currents. Actual data and its use is limited.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ocean\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ocean","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ocean"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=300905"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300905\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":300911,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300905\/revisions\/300911"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/300908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=300905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=300905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=300905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}