{"id":300896,"date":"2024-02-10T10:23:48","date_gmt":"2024-02-10T09:23:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300896"},"modified":"2024-02-10T10:23:50","modified_gmt":"2024-02-10T09:23:50","slug":"climate-change-is-not-behind-lake-meads-decline-overuse-and-poor-management-are","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300896","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change Is Not Behind Lake Mead\u2019s Decline, Overuse and Poor Management Are"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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By H. Sterling Burnett<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With an atmospheric river dumping trillions of gallons precipitation on California and other western states, some news outlets have asked how the precipitation might affect Lake Mead, suggesting that the rainfall will do little for the lake or the Colorado River basin which feeds it because it\u2019s drying out due to climate change. Although it is true that the current storm will likely do little to reverse Lake Mead\u2019s decline in the long-term, the reason for its decline is not climate change, but instead, overuse and poor management of the reservoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A number of mainstream media outlets ran stories in recent days remarking on the fact that the recent atmospheric river event is dumping more water in a few days than Lake Mead, America\u2019s largest reservoir by volume, can hold at full capacity. On February 7, for example, Newsweek, ran two stories on the heavy rains, \u201cBomb Cyclone To Dump More Water Than in Lake Mead on California<\/a>,\u201d and \u201cAtmospheric Rivers Won\u2019t Refill Lakes Mead and Powell, says expert<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These two stories were largely straight forward reporting, the kind of honest journalism Americans used to expect from the media outlets. Newsweek did not attribute the present atmospheric river or Lake\u2019s Mead or Powell present water levels to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, Lake Mead\u2019s water levels are dominated, not by a single rainfall event, affecting areas primarily downstream of the reservoir, but by seasonal snowpack across the course of the winter which, when it melts over time, flows into the lake, its feeder streams, and Lake Powell above it, which is the primary source of stream flow feeding Lake Mead. Last season\u2019s record snowfall on mountains of the Colorado River Basin boosted lake levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Courthouse News<\/a> and the Missoula Current<\/a> each ran stories covering a trial in which climate activists are suing U.S. Department of the Interior for setting a management plan that fails to account for the impacts of climate change, which they claim is causing lake and river levels to fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As detailed at Climate Realism<\/em>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>, for example, this is not the first time climate activists, often with the support of the mainstream media, have falsely claimed climate change has caused a precipitation decline in the Western United States, which they blame for recent declines in Lake Mead, the Great Salt Lake, and Lake Tahoe. Mismanagement is part of the story of the decline in some Western rivers, reservoirs, and lakes, but there is no evidence long-term climate change is contributing to the decline. Myriad other factors are, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Newsweek reports, Lake Mead did reach its lowest measured water levels since filling in history in 2022<\/a>, but it had similar low-level seasons in from 1955-1957 and again in 1964 and 1965, nearly 70 and 60 years of global warming ago, respectively, when temperatures were cooler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Drought Monitor<\/a> reports that under 35 percent of the Colorado river basin, touching on seven states and parts of northern Mexico, is currently suffering any drought, and only approximately 3 percent of the area is suffering extreme or exceptional drought. A review of the history shows that record lake levels were recorded between 1965 and 1983, with Lake Mead remaining consistently above average through 2002, a representing a 37-year period of sustained above average water levels, even as temperatures were rising. As is noted in Climate at a Glance: Water Levels \u2013 Lake Mead<\/a>, after 37 years of abundance, some decline was bound to eventually occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, the Colorado River Basin has on average experienced below average precipitation, but it is in the arid West so that is to be expected. The U.S. drought monitor shows some years with severe, widespread drought for extended periods of time, and some years in which less than 10 percent of the basin was experiencing any drought at all. Regardless there is no clear trend of droughts of increasing intensity that would suggest climate change was causing a sustained decline in precipitation across the basin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since climate change can\u2019t be shown to be contributing to Lake Mead\u2019s decline, we must examine other factors which might, and there are many. The National Park Service<\/a> (NPS) discusses two factors contributing to Lake Mead\u2019s decline that are entirely ignored by climate alarmists: sedimentation and evaporation. Concerning evaporation, the NPS writes, \u201c[e]vaporation in the area is extremely high and represents a significant water loss [equaling] \u2026 almost 10% of the average annual inflow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the NPS cites research which suggests that by 1970 the build up of sediment behind the Hoover Dam had already robbed Lake Mead of approximately 12 percent of its volume. Some of that sediment has likely compacted since then, but over the 54 years since that study study was done sediment has continued to flow into Lake Mead and accumulated, so its volume had undoubtedly shrunk even more. Sustained dredging operations would both increase Lake Mead\u2019s volume and provide valuable, fertile soil for those who might want it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most important single factor in Lake Mead\u2019s decline, however, is the tremendous growth in population for the region. Arizona and Nevada are two of the fastest growing states in the United States. The number of agricultural, urban, and industrial users of water from Lake Mead and its feeder rivers has grown tremendously in the past 30 years. More people farming in, living in and building homes, golf courses, businesses, in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico, means more demand for water from Lake Mead, whether or not precipitation in the basin has declined. Since 1993:<\/p>\n\n\n\n