{"id":300586,"date":"2024-02-07T18:02:15","date_gmt":"2024-02-07T17:02:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300586"},"modified":"2024-02-07T18:02:18","modified_gmt":"2024-02-07T17:02:18","slug":"what-drought-amazon-data-show-little-overall-rainfall-change-in-300-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300586","title":{"rendered":"What Drought? Amazon Data Show Little Overall Rainfall Change in 300 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hysteria reigned supreme as recent global mainstream media headlines blamed last year\u2019s drought in the Amazon basin on human-caused climate change. The BBC<\/a> reported that without human involvement, the drought may have been a once in 1,500 year event. Damian Carrington of the Guardian<\/em><\/a> said it \u201chit the maximum \u2018exceptional\u2019 level on the scientific scale\u201d, whatever that means. Those of a more sceptical persuasion might note that the scares arose from computer models funded by the green billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham. In fact, rainfall in the area has shown little cyclical deviation across nearly 300 years, severe droughts are common in the basin, particularly in El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> years, and temperatures in Brazil have risen by only 0.6\u00b0C since 1900 \u2013 considerably less than rises claimed for the northern hemisphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scares emanated from World Weather Attribution (WWA)<\/a>, a green activist unit run out of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College. The take-out figure, reproduced around the media, was that the event was 30 times more likely to happen due to what the Guardian<\/em> called \u201cglobal heating\u201d. The climate crisis is \u201csuper-charging\u201d extreme weather across the planet, informs a clearly very disturbed Carrington, and the Amazon rainforest is already thought to be close to a \u201ctipping point\u201d into a drier state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calm down. Not according to work\u00a0published last September<\/a>\u00a0by two geo-scientists in the American Meteorological Society\u2019s\u00a0Journal of Climate.\u00a0<\/em>The graph below tracks rainfall going back to 1760 and shows a remarkably consistent cyclical pattern up to present times. The graph also shows that severe droughts were not uncommon in the historical past \u2013 events that are also recorded in copious writings from the time.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The scientists used proxy evidence provided by tree rings to calculate rainfall and found that recent high and low flow anomalies on the Amazon river \u201cmay not have exceeded the natural variability of precipitation and stream-flow during the 19th century\u201d. Recent river-level extremes may have been equalled or possibly exceeded in the pre-industrial 1800s, they added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its way the WWA fills a gap<\/a> in the pseudoscientific market. Much to the irritation of activists, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has largely refused to be drawn on any increasing signal in natural disasters such as droughts, hurricanes and wildfires. Using what it claims to be \u201cpeer-reviewed\u201d methods, WWA computer models first simulate a climate with no human involvement that does not exist, and then compare it with another simulation that is supposed to reflect the involvement of humans burning hydrocarbons. Any weather event at a local level that is magnified in the second scenario \u2013 magic words can be applied at this point \u2013 is said to be due to human-caused climate change.  \u201cI can think of no other area of research where the relaxing of rigour and standards has been encouraged by researchers in order to generate claims more friendly to headlines, political advocacy and even lawsuits,\u201d is the verdict of the distinguished science commentator Roger Pielke Jr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The WWA accepts the influence of a strong\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>\u00a0causing drought in the Amazon last year,\u00a0but said its study showed climate change was the main driver of the event, \u201cthrough its influence on higher temperatures\u201d. It is a little warmer in Brazil than 120 years ago as the planet has naturally bounced back from the Little Ice Age. But the tropics generally show much less warming than parts of the northern hemisphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Temperature in Brazil (World Bank<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above temperature graph for Brazil has been published by the World Bank<\/a> and it shows a rise from 1901 to 2022 of just 0.6\u00b0C. In fact on a five-year smoothing trend it displays a near 0.3\u00b0C fall between 2017 and 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The billionaire-funded WWA and its faithful poodle press pack are clearly attempting to fill global populations with alarm about a collapsing climate and the need for a supra-national, collectivist Net Zero solution. WWA co-founder and regular BBC contributor Dr. Friederike Otto is quite clear about the political message<\/a> being promoted. She noted that it was \u201cvery worrying\u201d that human-caused climate change was the driver of the devastating drought in the Amazon last year. \u201cOur choices in the battle against climate change remain the same in 2024 \u2013 continue to destroy lives and livelihoods by burning fossil fuels, or secure a healthy, liveable future by rapidly replacing them with clean renewable energy.\u201d But whatever the political agenda, the product of attribution models is not scientific proof. In fact they prove nothing since they fail the most important principle of the scientific process \u2013 they cannot be tested and shown to be either true or false. In the end they are just opinions, and it is to the increasing discredit of much mainstream media that they are treated as anything else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ottos of this world might think they can stop the climate changing, but back on the real planet the Amazon seems to be getting along just fine. Deforestation is a real problem but that has nothing to do with a changing climate, and is solvable at a political level. Improving the standard of living for people living in the Amazon region by encouraging more hydrocarbon use might help. Last week the\u00a0Daily Sceptic\u00a0<\/em>reported<\/a>\u00a0on the accelerated rate of global \u2018greening\u2019 caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the last two decades. This growth can be seen in the map below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Leaf Area Index (LAI) 10-year growth\/trend by region (blue\/green represents high growth\/trend)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The entire Amazon region has not shown as much leaf growth as India, Europe and eastern equatorial Africa. It has yet to hit the \u201cmaximum exceptional level on the scientific scale\u201d, as the Guardian <\/em>probably wouldn\u2019t note, but it hardly suggests an area in vegetative decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em>\u00a0Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hysteria reigned supreme as recent global mainstream media headlines blamed last year\u2019s drought in the Amazon basin on human-caused climate change. The\u00a0BBC\u00a0reported that without human involvement, the drought may have been a once in 1,500 year event. Damian Carrington of the\u00a0Guardian\u00a0said it \u201chit the maximum \u2018exceptional\u2019 level on the scientific scale\u201d, whatever that means. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":300595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Hysteria reigned supreme as recent global mainstream media headlines blamed last year\u2019s drought in the Amazon basin on human-caused climate change. The\u00a0BBC\u00a0reported that without human involvement, the drought may have been a once in 1,500 year event. Dami","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691826701,691821611,691819134,691819743,691819348,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-300586","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-amazon","9":"tag-amazon-rainforest","10":"tag-climate-alarmism","11":"tag-climate-propaganda","12":"tag-drought","13":"tag-net-zero","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00shutterstock-1292310916.webp?fit=1320%2C742&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1gca","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":299641,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299641","url_meta":{"origin":300586,"position":0},"title":"Media Outlets Continue Spreading False Amazon \u201cRecord Drought\u201d Claims","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Each of these news outlets ignored or at a minimum displayed ignorance of the fact that an even worse drought occurred in 1865, well before climate change was even an issue.","rel":"","context":"In \"Amazon\"","block_context":{"text":"Amazon","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amazon"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0amazon-media-drought-climate.jpg?fit=1200%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0amazon-media-drought-climate.jpg?fit=1200%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0amazon-media-drought-climate.jpg?fit=1200%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0amazon-media-drought-climate.jpg?fit=1200%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0amazon-media-drought-climate.jpg?fit=1200%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":199500,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=199500","url_meta":{"origin":300586,"position":1},"title":"No, Time Magazine, Climate Change is Not Worsening Drought","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent\u00a0Time\u00a0magazine article says human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and number of droughts around the world. These claims are false. Drought tracking data show no meaningful trend in severity or frequency of drought globally. Referencing a recent United Nations report,\u00a0Time\u2019s article, \u201cClimate Change Will Make Droughts Longer, More\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0flower-gca2ad7e92_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C933&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0flower-gca2ad7e92_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C933&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0flower-gca2ad7e92_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C933&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0flower-gca2ad7e92_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C933&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0flower-gca2ad7e92_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C933&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":411179,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411179","url_meta":{"origin":300586,"position":2},"title":"The Guardian and Guterres Are Wrong: Science Shows No Climate \u2018Tipping Points\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in\u00a0The Guardian, \u201cChange course now: humanity has missed 1.5C climate target, says UN head,\u201d claims that the planet is in grave danger of passing climate \u201ctipping points,\u201d as it is now inevitable that 1.5\u00b0C warming will be breached. 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These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle.\u201d That\u2019s actually a good definition.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=300586"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300586\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":300596,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300586\/revisions\/300596"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/300595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=300586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=300586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=300586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}