{"id":299670,"date":"2024-02-04T13:32:48","date_gmt":"2024-02-04T12:32:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299670"},"modified":"2024-02-04T13:32:51","modified_gmt":"2024-02-04T12:32:51","slug":"u-s-a-temperature-trends-1979-2023-models-vs-observations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299670","title":{"rendered":"U.S.A. Temperature Trends, 1979-2023: Models vs. Observations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
wallup.net<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Roy Spencer, PhD.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 2nd, 2024 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Updated through 2023, here is a comparison of the \u201cUSA48\u201d annual surface air temperature trend\u00a0as computed by NOAA<\/a>\u00a0(+0.27 deg. C\/decade, blue bar) to those in the CMIP6 climate models for the same time period and region (red bars). Following Gavin Schmidt\u2019s concern that not all CMIP6 models should be included in such comparisons, I am only including those models having equilibrium climate sensitivities in the IPCC\u2019s \u201chighly likely\u201d range of 2 to 5 deg. C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Approximately 6 times as many models (23) have more warming than the NOAA observations than those having cooler trends (4). The model trends average 42% warmer than the observed temperature trends. As I allude to in the graph, there is evidence that the NOAA thermometer-based observations have a warm bias due to little-to-no adjustment for the Urban Heat Island effect, but our latest estimate of that bias (now in review at Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology) suggests the UHI effect in the U.S. has been rather small since about 1960.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note I have also included our UAH lower tropospheric trend, even though I do not expect as good agreement between tropospheric and surface temperature trends in a regional area like the U.S. as for global, hemispheric, or tropical average trends. Theoretically, the tropospheric warming should be a little stronger than surface warming, but that depends upon how much positive water vapor feedback actually exists in nature (It is certainly positive in the atmospheric boundary layer where surface evaporation dominates, but it\u2019s not obviously positive in the free-troposphere where precipitation efficiency changes with warming are largely unknown. I believe this is why there is little to no observational evidence of a tropical \u201chot spot\u201d as predicted by models).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we now switch to a comparison for just the summer months (June, July, August), the discrepancy between climate model and observed warming trends is larger, with the model trends averaging 59% warmer than the observations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For the summer season, there are 26 models exhibiting warmer trends than the observations, and only 1 model with a weaker warming trend. The satellite tropospheric temperature trend is weakest of all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that \u201cglobal warming\u201d is a greater concern in the summer, these results further demonstrate that the climate models depended upon for public policy should not be believed when it comes to their global warming projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For the summer season, there are 26 models exhibiting warmer trends than the observations, and only 1 model with a weaker warming trend. The satellite tropospheric temperature trend is weakest of all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":299679,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"For the summer season, there are 26 models exhibiting warmer trends than the observations, and only 1 model with a weaker warming trend. The satellite tropospheric temperature trend is weakest of all.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691822920,691818087,691826707,691826708,691818161,691826709,691826706],"class_list":{"0":"post-299670","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-cmip6-climate-models","9":"tag-global-warming","10":"tag-noaa-observations","11":"tag-surface-evaporation","12":"tag-temperature-trends","13":"tag-tropospheric-trend","14":"tag-u-s-a","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=2048%2C1367&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1fXo","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":421404,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421404","url_meta":{"origin":299670,"position":0},"title":"Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends, 1979-2025: The Epic Climate Model Failure Continues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"As a follow-on to my\u00a0recent post\u00a0regarding global surface air temperature trends (1979-2025) and how they compare to climate models, this is an update on a similar comparison for tropical tropospheric temperature trends, courtesy of tabulations made by John Christy. It also represents an update to my popular\u00a0\u201cepic fail\u201d blog post\u00a0from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-greenhouse-gas-ghg"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254196,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254196","url_meta":{"origin":299670,"position":1},"title":"40 years of expert failure: New NOAA STAR satellite temperatures only show half the warming that climate models do","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An all new reanalysis of the STAR satellite data finds markedly lower temperature trends for the last 40 years. The big deal about this is that this third dataset suddenly supports the original UAH satellite data, not the other RSS system, and not the \u201csurface thermometers\u201d sitting near hot tarmacs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate modelers\"","block_context":{"text":"climate modelers","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-modelers"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":299201,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299201","url_meta":{"origin":299670,"position":2},"title":"Spencer vs. Schmidt: My Response to RealClimate.org Criticisms","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"What follows is a response to Gavin Schmidt\u2019s blog post at RealClimate.org entitled\u00a0Spencer\u2019s Shenanigans\u00a0in which he takes issue with my claims in\u00a0Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models. As I read through his criticism, he seems to be trying too hard to refute my claims while using weak (and even non-existent)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0climatemodels-average-vs-satellite.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0climatemodels-average-vs-satellite.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0climatemodels-average-vs-satellite.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0climatemodels-average-vs-satellite.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0climatemodels-average-vs-satellite.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420929,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420929","url_meta":{"origin":299670,"position":3},"title":"Surface Air Temperature Trends, Climate Models vs Observations, 1979-2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"This is just a short update regarding how global surface air temperature (Tsfc) trends are tracking 34 CMIP6 climate models through 2025. The following plot shows the Tsfc trends, 1979-2025, ranked from the warmest to the coolest.","rel":"","context":"In \"(Tsfc) trends\"","block_context":{"text":"(Tsfc) trends","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=tsfc-trends"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252720,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252720","url_meta":{"origin":299670,"position":4},"title":"NOAA Confirm UAH Tropospheric Temperature Trends","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The troposphere climate record has been heavily debated for two reasons. First, it\u2019s where climate models say the effect of warming due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) will be the strongest, especially in the mid-troposphere.","rel":"","context":"In \"NOAA\"","block_context":{"text":"NOAA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=noaa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":225018,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=225018","url_meta":{"origin":299670,"position":5},"title":"50-Year U.S. Summer Temperature Trends: ALL 36 Climate Models Are Too Warm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019ll get right to the results, which are pretty straightforward.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Charles_Rotter_Its_too_hot_d414324d-638e-432e-94cb-ece1f3e33994.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Charles_Rotter_Its_too_hot_d414324d-638e-432e-94cb-ece1f3e33994.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Charles_Rotter_Its_too_hot_d414324d-638e-432e-94cb-ece1f3e33994.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Charles_Rotter_Its_too_hot_d414324d-638e-432e-94cb-ece1f3e33994.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=299670"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299670\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":299681,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299670\/revisions\/299681"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/299679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=299670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=299670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=299670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}