{"id":299135,"date":"2024-01-30T18:29:29","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T17:29:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299135"},"modified":"2024-01-30T18:31:14","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T17:31:14","slug":"no-al-jazeera-climate-change-is-not-worsening-human-trafficking-in-sierra-leone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299135","title":{"rendered":"No, Al Jazeera, Climate Change Is Not Worsening Human Trafficking in Sierra Leone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recent article at Al Jazeera titled \u201cIn Sierra Leone, climate change worsens human trafficking of the poor<\/a>,\u201d claims that human trafficking is exacerbated by alleged impacts of climate change like flooding and crop failures. Data, however, indicate that sea level rise and meteorological (weather-related) flooding is not getting worse in any way that can explain the capital of Sierra Leone\u2019s flood problems. In addition, that the erratic nature of of major food crops seem to line up with civil strife more than climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The vast majority of the Al Jazeera story is about human trafficking, how desperate people are tricked into being trafficked, and the suffering that traffickers inflict on vulnerable people. There is one short section that nods to climate change, arguing that it exacerbates the problem by destroying homes with flooding and mudslides, and \u201cunpredictable rainfall\u201d causing bad harvests of crops and forcing farmers to move into overcrowded cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al Jazeera writer, Olivia Acland, writes that Sierra Leone is among the top 10 percent of countries listed as being vulnerable to climate change, giving no source for that figure, and explains that a third of the population lives in coastal regions where homes are more vulnerable to \u201cworsening floods.\u201d Acland goes on to claim some islands are \u201cgoing underwater,\u201d and \u201c[e]ach year, flash floods tear through Freetown,\u201d the country\u2019s capital, killing residents. In 2021 and 2022 400 floods reportedly struck Freetown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acland implies that sea level rise is one of the reasons why the flooding is so severe, but data for the region is scarce. The nearest station in Africa is in Takoradi, Ghana, about 826 miles away as the crow flies, and sea level rise rates can change dramatically over much shorter distances, so these comparisons must be taken with a grain of salt. The Takoradi station data<\/a> as published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration measures an average of about 3.32 mm\/year of rise, which is in line or a little higher than estimated global averages<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the rate of sea level rise annually is so small it can\u2019t account for repeated flooding. Local geographical conditions have driven flooding in recent years, not climate change. First, Freetown is located on a peninsula right off the river delta and estuary of the Rokel river, the largest in Sierra Leone. These kinds of locations, as discussed in previous Climate Realism<\/em> posts (here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>) are notorious for flooding and land instability. River deltas and estuaries are very dynamic by nature, and when human development comes in and more impermeable surfaces like roads and concrete are built, water has nowhere to go but to flood the city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather data for Sierra Leone<\/a> does not indicate that recent decades have seen more rainfall than previous, so that isn\u2019t a legitimate part of the equation either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is not noted by the article is that the killer mudslides from 2017 were due to the combination of heavy downpours and unregulated construction and development<\/a> which destabilized the sides of Sugarloaf mountain and caused large portions of it to slide off onto the villages below. Other stories<\/a> about the deadly mudslides acknowledge that deforestation on the mountains has reduced their natural erosion control and makes mudslides more likely when heavy downpours occur. It is likely that these conditions also contributed to more recent mudslides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor does crop production data on main staple crops for Sierra Leone (cassava, sweet potatoes, and rice) show a climate signal. While Cassava has seen some pretty severe fluctuations, these do not often coincide directly with weather events, but more strongly with civil unrest or the end of major periods of civil unrest. For example, looking at the production data in Figure 1 below, Cassava production massively took off in 2002. That year happens to be the very year that was the official declared end of a bloody civil war which lasted from 1991 until the end of 2001.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In 2014 through 2016, Sierra Leone suffered through an Ebola epidemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the volatility, production of each of Sierra Leone\u2019s staple crops have increased substantially since 1990:<\/p>\n\n\n\n