{"id":299049,"date":"2024-01-30T12:25:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T11:25:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299049"},"modified":"2024-01-30T12:25:26","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T11:25:26","slug":"carbon-dioxide-causes-much-less-warming-than-is-commonly-believed-new-paper-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299049","title":{"rendered":"Carbon Dioxide Causes Much Less Warming Than is Commonly Believed, New Paper Finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further holes have been blown in the \u2018settled\u2019 scientific view that humans are responsible for all or most of the changes in the climate by burning hydrocarbons. Three scientists, including Atmospheric Professor Yi Huang of McGill University, have reduced by nearly 40% the basic amount of warming caused by a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide \u2013 a figure commonly used to promote the global warming scare. In addition they cast doubt on the ability of CO2<\/sub> to heat the atmosphere beyond the levels already passed in the pre-industrial age. \u201cTransmissivity in the CO2<\/sub> band centre is unchanged by increased CO2<\/sub> as the absorption is already saturated,\u201d they note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If correct, of course, this work destroys the \u2018settled\u2019 climate science that back the collectivist Net Zero project. The findings are likely to be ignored by the mainstream media. Indeed, on past form some activist journalists and scientists<\/a> may seek to get the paper retracted. For the time being, it is published<\/a> by the American Meteorological Society in its Journal of Climate<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another sensational finding is that higher levels of CO2<\/sub> seem to actually cool Antarctica. \u201cThe [doubled CO2<\/sub>] forcing in polar regions is strongly hemispheric asymmetric and is negative in the Antarctic,\u201d write the scientists. None of this will be a surprise to regular readers since it would appear to be confirmed by observations that the region has shown \u201cnearly non-existent warming\u201d over the last 70 years<\/a>. The recent \u201cmind-blowing\u2019\u201d scare over low levels of winter sea ice has been debunked by evidence from early weather satellites showing similar levels in 1966.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main paper is behind a paywall but an excellent summary of its contents<\/a> is provided by the science blog No Tricks Zone<\/em>. The science is complex with the \u2018Abstract\u2019 explaining that the paper evaluates the \u201cspatiotemporal variation of the instantaneous, longwave CO2<\/sub> radiative forcing at both the TOA [top of the atmosphere] and surface\u201d. In plain terms, the work investigates the rise in temperature at three levels in the atmosphere as the Earth adjusts its thermal balance from heat trapped by so-called \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gases. Using a watts per square metre formulation (3.7 W\/m2<\/sup>), it is commonly held by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that a doubling of CO2<\/sub> will lead to a rise in temperature at the TOA of 1.2\u00b0C. The scientists have reduced this number to 2.26 W\/m2<\/sup>, a 39% reduction down to a temperature rise of 0.72\u00b0C. At the surface, the rise is only 0.55\u00b0C. Large parts of the globe are measured at 0 W\/m2<\/sup> including below zero for Antarctica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The inconvenient idea that CO2<\/sub> \u2018saturates\u2019 above certain atmospheric levels, possibly at levels lower than current concentrations, has long been dismissed, but it does have the advantage of explaining the higher gas levels seen in the past. Carbon dioxide only absorbs heat in narrow bands on the infrared spectrum and it commonly overlaps with other warming gases such as ubiquitous water vapour. \u201cThe water vapour and CO2<\/sub> overlapping at an absorbing band prevents absorption by additional CO2<\/sub>,\u201d observe the authors. The water vapour usually damps the doubled CO2<\/sub> forcing by reducing the energy additional CO2<\/sub> can absorb, they add.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The W\/m2<\/sup> figure is a vital building block in attempts to put a figure on the final temperature rise caused by a doubling of CO2<\/sub>, a process known as climate sensitivity. Scientists also point to other influences, or forcings, on climate and these include feedback from many sources such as evaporation, ice albedo (reflection) and clouds. For a \u2018settled\u2019 scientific narrative, it is remarkably little understood how such feedback actually happens. In fact, it is probably beyond accurate measurement in a chaotic, non-linear atmosphere. The results of climate models over 40 years would appear to confirm that last statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of this has stopped activist scientists claiming double CO2<\/sub> warming between 2-6\u00b0C. It is essentially a made-up figure often called an hypothesis \u2013 science-speak for an opinion. Despite claims it cannot be \u2018denied\u2019, it is not a \u2018theory\u2019 or a \u2018law\u2019. It is an opinion that has remained unproven for over 50 years. Not a single science paper can tell us what the climate sensitivity figure is \u2013 activists are free to speculate that temperatures will rise by up to 6\u00b0C, but others suggest it is well below 1\u00b0C and indistinguishable from natural climate variation. Despite all this, a majority of science papers preach climate doomsday scenarios<\/a> using RCP 8.5 \u2018pathway\u2019 modelled data that suggests the global temperature will rise by up to 4\u00b0C within less than 80 years. Other activists use computer models to claim that they can attribute single bad weather events to long-term changes in the climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this is pseudoscience since it\u2019s non-falsifiable and hence doesn\u2019t meet the test of a scientific hypothesis. It is however the lynchpin of the argument that there\u2019s no point in debating climate science and all heretics should be silenced in the interest of drastic Net Zero-inspired economic and societal control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the\u00a0<\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Further holes have been blown in the \u2018settled\u2019 scientific view that humans are responsible for all or most of the changes in the climate by burning hydrocarbons. Three scientists, including Atmospheric Professor Yi Huang of McGill University, have reduced by nearly 40% the basic amount of warming caused by a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide \u2013 a figure commonly used to promote the global warming scare. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":299051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Further holes have been blown in the \u2018settled\u2019 scientific view that humans are responsible for all or most of the changes in the climate by burning hydrocarbons. Three scientists, including Atmospheric Professor Yi Huang of McGill University, have reduced","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818076,691826603,691826604,691826605],"class_list":{"0":"post-299049","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-co2","9":"tag-journal-of-climate","10":"tag-no-tricks-zone","11":"tag-professor-yi-huang","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIGP-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1fNn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":323585,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=323585","url_meta":{"origin":299049,"position":0},"title":"New Scientific Evidence That CO2 Emissions Can\u2019t Warm Atmosphere Because it is \u201cSaturated\u201d Published in Peer-Reviewed Journal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Further scientific evidence has emerged to suggest that the Earth\u2019s atmosphere is \u2018saturated\u2019 with carbon dioxide, meaning that at higher levels the \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gas will not cause temperatures to rise. A group of Polish scientists led by Dr. Jan Kubicki have published three papers recently, and according to the science\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Carbon dioxide\"","block_context":{"text":"Carbon dioxide","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":358601,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=358601","url_meta":{"origin":299049,"position":1},"title":"Science Shock: CO2 is Good for the Planet, Peer-Reviewed Studies Suggest","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Dramatic evidence has been published in a number of recent science papers that carbon dioxide levels are already\u00a0\u2018saturated\u2019, meaning little or no further warming is to be expected, and rising CO2\u00a0levels are all beneficial.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":317206,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=317206","url_meta":{"origin":299049,"position":2},"title":"New Paper Finds Effect of Human-Caused Carbon Emissions on Climate is \u201cNon-Discernible\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Every now and then, a giant of modern science should be allowed to express himself in language that we all understand. In the informative\u00a0Climate: The Movie, the 2022 Nobel physics laureate Dr. John Clauser thundered: \u201cI assert there is no connection whatsoever between climate change and CO2\u00a0\u2013 it\u2019s all a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-08-at-00.35.09.jpeg?fit=1200%2C612&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-08-at-00.35.09.jpeg?fit=1200%2C612&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-08-at-00.35.09.jpeg?fit=1200%2C612&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-08-at-00.35.09.jpeg?fit=1200%2C612&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-08-at-00.35.09.jpeg?fit=1200%2C612&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":368744,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368744","url_meta":{"origin":299049,"position":3},"title":"IR-Active Gases: H2O Potent, CO2\u00a0Feeble","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive macroscopic relationships of downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation\u00a0which enable determining the partial derivatives thereof with respect to the explanatory variables that represent the greenhouse gases. 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This myth is blindly accepted \u2014 even by many of my science colleagues who know virtually\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate crisis\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate crisis","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0farm_emissions_sources.png?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0farm_emissions_sources.png?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0farm_emissions_sources.png?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0farm_emissions_sources.png?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0farm_emissions_sources.png?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=299049"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299049\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":299052,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299049\/revisions\/299052"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/299051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=299049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=299049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=299049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}