{"id":298960,"date":"2024-01-28T18:11:59","date_gmt":"2024-01-28T17:11:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298960"},"modified":"2024-01-28T18:12:01","modified_gmt":"2024-01-28T17:12:01","slug":"automobiles-human-nature-and-the-challenge-of-building-cars-that-people-actually-want","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298960","title":{"rendered":"Automobiles, human nature, and the challenge of building cars that people actually want"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The BOE REPORT<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Terry Etam<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some people out there have an inner itch to do things different. Maybe it\u2019s art, or music, or some other glorious pastime that we as the rest of humanity benefit from, far, far more than we pay. What sort of car these types drive is fascinating; usually something quirky or wonderfully weird; Neil Young spent years before he made it big driving an old hearse, various narcotics taped under the dash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others think completely differently, bone-dry aesthetically-speaking; thinkers who just want to make things better. Their inner guiding light is efficiency. I had a genius uncle, a farm boy who made it to high levels in national security in Ottawa through no formal education and sheer ingenuity, who would love describing how he could achieve 70 miles per gallon driving carefully and methodically and under-the-speed-limit around Ottawa in a tiny car, joyously oblivious to Type A heads exploding in his rear-view mirror.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most people are somewhere in the middle, neither artists nor efficiency maniacs, a space that is quite comfortable for most of humanity. We like nice things, we like how they look, but we also care about practicality. We want to be different from everyone else! But just a bit, or that\u2019s weird. And we all want to drive! Even if it is getting harder and harder for today\u2019s youth to afford it, that drive is still there if finances allow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This overwhelmingly dominant trait can drive the two extreme camps crazy, a battle that becomes stark and vivid in the automotive industry. Our automotive choices make a statement whether it is intentional or not, and whether we want it or not, because nothing makes a person easier to judge than their automotive preferences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a reality that people who want to change the world have to accept. It is a very hard thing to swallow, particularly for logicians who can make a near-perfect argument as to why one choice is clearly superior to another, and yet people will look you in the eye and do the opposite. (Long ago when minivans were fully earning their stripes as useful and comfortable transport, about when the perplexing stigma of minivan ownership was setting in, I watched a friend of a friend, standing five-foot-not-much, try and wrestle a mountain bike onto the roof rack of her SUV (yes, yes, I helped), and as she did so she said, \u201cWhat I really need is a minivan but what would people think of me if I drove one?\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minivan vs. SUV was symbolic of the sheer power of how the 80-percent-in-the-middle will shape the landscape, to the extent that personal choice is allowed (hope you\u2019re not scoffing at that, if so, see: federal 2035 all-EV mandate). Because I\u2019m petty and juvenile, it used to fill me with scorn to see people sub-optimize such an expensive purchase on the altar of \u2018what other people think of me\u2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m still petty and juvenile, but have gained enough miles under my wheels to know that things aren\u2019t so simple, and even if they are, it is hardly any of my business what people choose or why. Some care about resale value. Some like an available colour. Some like the feel of the steering wheel or comfort of the seats or the look of the front grille. So what.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not easy for automakers either, because it\u2019s not just that people will actually make auto purchase decisions based on some ridiculously small feature, but also that the lead time from when consumer preferences head in a new direction can be far less than the time it takes to develop a new vehicle. For example, a significant change in gas prices can lead to a preference, or abhorrence, for small, fuel efficient cars, while manufacturers won\u2019t really be able to fully reflect this for a few years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s what makes the EV \u2018transition\u2019 so fascinating. If there is one thing that is glaringly obvious in the whole topic, it is that people absolutely do not purchase \u2018what they are supposed to\u2019. You can\u2019t make any sense out of it, because the whims and motivations come from external influences that are unpredictable. If Taylor Swift started driving a black Toyota Corolla sedan all of a sudden, what do you think would happen to black Toyota Corolla sedan sales? Not sales of grey ones though, pah! What am I, crazy? Who\u2019d be caught dead in one of those things?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So now, particularly here in Canada but in many other jurisdictions including California, drivers are being told they will not be allowed to buy any new vehicle that isn\u2019t EV, nor will manufacturers be allowed to sell anything that isn\u2019t an EV. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The manufacturers are playing their part, nervously unveiling EV after EV after EV. They advertise the crap out of them, auto publications dutifully test and review them, and the media breathlessly reports how a model\u2019s sales skyrocket by, say 33 percent, when sales go from 3 to 4 units per month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The media also jumped all over stories about huge demand backlogs, how some new model about to enter showrooms has thousands and thousands of orders or deposits. In 2021, news widely circulated that \u201cFord F-150 Lightning pre-orders have been closed after nearly 200k reservations<\/a>\u201d, or Motor Trend\u2019s \u201cFord Takes in More Than 44,500 F-150 Lightning Orders in 48 Hours<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think about how amazing that order book is. A mass manufacturer like Ford is so swamped with interest that they simply must grandiosely and loudly announce: \u201cSorry Sir or Madam, we can no longer take your order, our success is just too overwhelming.\u201d Many manufacturers reported similar order-book hysteria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that the story was surreal, but not quite as it sounds. Through all of 2022, Ford sold only 15,617 electric pickups. The headlines for 2022 results remain starry eyed and insipid: \u201cFord Tripled BEV Sales In December, Doubled In 2022<\/a>\u201d, although that couldn\u2019t hold a candle to the infantile enthrallment saved for late 2023: \u201cFord F-150 Lightning breaks monthly sales record, doubling in November<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sales in November 2023 did indeed \u2018double\u2019 compared to the prior November, but in the entire quarter Ford sold only 11,905 units. In the two years after the hail-the-future order book bumper crop, Ford only sold about 40,000 F-150 Lightnings. In two years. Recently Ford announced a halving of 2024 production plans down to about 1,600 units per week, or just under 7,000 per month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep in mind that in 2023 Ford sold over 750,000 <\/a>F-150 internal combustion pickups in the US, and many of these go to urban dwellers for whom an EV pickup might make total sense \u2013 ones that rarely leave the city (EVs are in general far better suited to urban environments where they can scoot home safely to a nice warm private charging station every night). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which brings us back to consumer behaviour again, that mystifying and surely exasperating trait of humanity that no amount of cajoling and \u2018proper thinking\u2019 will break. \u201cTwo hundred thousand reservations!\u201d to \u201cSlashing production forecasts!\u201d In half. On a variant of the most popular vehicle in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, and many people, when they decide they want an EV, mean they want a Tesla (in the pickup world, Rivian might be the Tesla of EV pickups, time will tell). Major auto manufacturers are having a very difficult time seeing EV sales grow to any level that would approach profitability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s hard not to feel bad for them, if one can or should feel bad for huge corporations. How on earth does one plan for the coming year, when two hundred thousand consumers say yes, I want one of those, but then 80 percent change their mind by the time Ford can actually manufacture them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But observe; whispering in their manufacturing ears are governments saying not subtly that \u201cDon\u2019t worry, we will be legislating internal combustion out of existence, just build them and they will come\u2026\u201d Said less loudly is the supporting evidence: \u201cbecause they have no choice.\u201d Well, it worked for a while in the Soviet Union didn\u2019t it? 29dk2902lhttps:\/\/boereport.com\/29dk2902l.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Making things even more complicated for manufacturers are upcoming elections in the US (this year) and Canada (what feels like an eternity but is really only 1.5 years) that could see either minor or major revisions to EV policy rollouts of the past few years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But forget all the uncertainty surrounding manufacturers; that all gets trumped (no pun intended) by the human element. Here\u2019s an important realization that we all need to accept: Some stuff just gives us a sense of belonging with others in a way that is critical to mental well being. Some people like to dress in the latest fashion. Some get the most popular hair styling. Some drive a rugged SUV because of what it says about them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That can make manufacturers pull their hair out, because something illogical might be their biggest hit ever. But on top of that one must now layer the rancid decay of politics. EV sales seem to be falling along political fault lines<\/a>, which in a way is not surprising: one side of the political spectrum sees climate change as a moral imperative to be dealt with as rapidly as possible, and that element, to the extent it can afford it, is responsible for the highest uptake of EVs (it is another sign that \u2018left wing vs. right wing\u2019 is a historical anachronism of little value any more; the traditional \u2018left\u2019 represented the working class, the downtrodden, the ones that needed a safety net; today\u2019s main EV purchasers are wealthy enough to pursue Teslas first and foremost, often with a multi-car garage full of options). EV as political statement is yet another example of how our preferences link us to a tribe of our choice, rational or not, and it will be supra-humanly difficult to change that, whether in Canada or the US or Togo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All one can conclude from this hodgepodge of observations is that the auto market will continue to reflect certain aspects of human nature that we may not even be aware of ourselves, and also reflect physical, financial and security realities\/rationales that will not be changed by government edict. I have no idea what that means in terms of a transition to EVs, and that trajectory could change with the development of new battery technology, for example. But at present, it should be clear, based on examples like the Ford F-150 Lightning EV experience, that human enthusiasm and professed care does not necessarily translate well into the cold hard reality of what people put their money down on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a nuanced world. People are imperfect and beautifully so, it adds colour to the world. Either the landscape is more or less free, where people express themselves as they wish, or it is a closed quasi- or full-dictatorship where that is not permitted (see: censorship, over-reaching legislation, thought police\/moralistic systemic governmental intervention, personal carbon budgets, etc.). The latter never succeeds because it fights human nature, and the former has elements that make no sense outside one\u2019s own circle of people that get it. I choose not to be part of some tribes, but I probably choose to be part of others, and likely do so subconsciously, which makes the whole thing even trickier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Current politicians and WEF-types believe they have a blueprint for humanity to unroll. It is an absurdity, if for no other reason than they can\u2019t comprehend the complex realities of 8 billion people whom they are trying to force in a certain direction. They are trying to force them all into metaphorical minivans, because minivans make more sense than anything else. They will fail. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy conversations should be positive and, most of all, grounded in reality. Life depends on it. Find out more in  \u201cThe End of Fossil Fuel Insanity\u201d at <\/em>Amazon.ca<\/a>, <\/em>Indigo.ca<\/a>, or <\/em>Amazon.com.<\/a> Thanks!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam\u00a0here,<\/a>\u00a0or email Terry\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some people out there have an inner itch to do things different. Maybe it\u2019s art, or music, or some other glorious pastime that we as the rest of humanity benefit from, far, far more than we pay.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":298964,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Some people out there have an inner itch to do things different. 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There are approximately 534,000 EVs on the road, meaning a total subsidy of \u00a3607 million.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-707.png?fit=1024%2C529&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-707.png?fit=1024%2C529&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-707.png?fit=1024%2C529&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-707.png?fit=1024%2C529&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416639,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416639","url_meta":{"origin":298960,"position":4},"title":"Octopus Energy ramps up electric car charging\u00a0costs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Britain\u2019s biggest energy provider is raising the cost of charging electric cars in a fresh blow to drivers.","rel":"","context":"In \"charging\u00a0costs\"","block_context":{"text":"charging\u00a0costs","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=charging-costs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQOUXaVrgxt3Vo3rQNbhbxeSPtGoL6sTsVrzMb-9z08LTJH8fiGC9wHle1GIWqyR8YOAI1weA0G-LbwcQ3-5o_0kxyswJEmCvalw3hI9NE3aypzYCwIKnzUEQJzQ5VoFiMxdyVgNVySdkeOUWwDfTSRw88wUmw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQOUXaVrgxt3Vo3rQNbhbxeSPtGoL6sTsVrzMb-9z08LTJH8fiGC9wHle1GIWqyR8YOAI1weA0G-LbwcQ3-5o_0kxyswJEmCvalw3hI9NE3aypzYCwIKnzUEQJzQ5VoFiMxdyVgNVySdkeOUWwDfTSRw88wUmw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQOUXaVrgxt3Vo3rQNbhbxeSPtGoL6sTsVrzMb-9z08LTJH8fiGC9wHle1GIWqyR8YOAI1weA0G-LbwcQ3-5o_0kxyswJEmCvalw3hI9NE3aypzYCwIKnzUEQJzQ5VoFiMxdyVgNVySdkeOUWwDfTSRw88wUmw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQOUXaVrgxt3Vo3rQNbhbxeSPtGoL6sTsVrzMb-9z08LTJH8fiGC9wHle1GIWqyR8YOAI1weA0G-LbwcQ3-5o_0kxyswJEmCvalw3hI9NE3aypzYCwIKnzUEQJzQ5VoFiMxdyVgNVySdkeOUWwDfTSRw88wUmw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQOUXaVrgxt3Vo3rQNbhbxeSPtGoL6sTsVrzMb-9z08LTJH8fiGC9wHle1GIWqyR8YOAI1weA0G-LbwcQ3-5o_0kxyswJEmCvalw3hI9NE3aypzYCwIKnzUEQJzQ5VoFiMxdyVgNVySdkeOUWwDfTSRw88wUmw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":289625,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289625","url_meta":{"origin":298960,"position":5},"title":"ECIU\u2019s Disinformation About\u00a0EVs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By Paul Homewood This week\u2019s disinformation from the ECIU propaganda unit! Ahead of the Government\u2019s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate\u2019s being debated in Parliamentary committee tomorrow,\u00a0Colin Walker, Head of Transport at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said, The Government\u2019s impact assessment for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-11-10T201424.721.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-11-10T201424.721.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-11-10T201424.721.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-11-10T201424.721.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=298960"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298960\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":298966,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298960\/revisions\/298966"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/298964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=298960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=298960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=298960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}