{"id":298638,"date":"2024-01-28T09:15:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-28T08:15:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298638"},"modified":"2024-01-28T09:15:26","modified_gmt":"2024-01-28T08:15:26","slug":"new-article-on-climate-models-vs-observations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298638","title":{"rendered":"New Article on Climate Models vs. Observations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"530\" data-attachment-id=\"298645\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=298645\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1226%2C899&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1226,899\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=723%2C530&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?resize=723%2C530&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-298645\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?resize=1024%2C751&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?resize=768%2C563&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?resize=1200%2C880&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?w=1226&amp;ssl=1 1226w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.drroyspencer.com\/\">Roy Spencer, PhD.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><small>January 25th, 2024 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>UPDATE:<\/strong>&nbsp;<em>Since commenter Nate objects to my inclusion of the Corn Belt graph (yes, it is a small area), please go to the actual article link at Heritage.org where 2 out of the 3 graphs I provide are for global average temperatures. But also remember that we are being told (through the National Climate Assessment\u2019s authors\u2019 belief in climate models) that U.S. agriculture is at risk from warming and drying\u2013 the first claim is mostly wrong, and the second claim is (so far) totally wrong. I\u2019ve blogged on this before, folks.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was asked by Heritage Foundation to write an article on the exaggerated global warming trends produced by climate models over the last 50 years or so. These are the models being used to guide energy policy in the U.S. and around the world. The article is now up at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.heritage.org\/environment\/report\/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-models\">Heritage.org<\/a>. As a sneak peek, here\u2019s a comparison between models and observations for the U.S. Corn Belt near-surface air temperatures in summer:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"978\" data-attachment-id=\"298640\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=298640\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Heritage-article-Chart2-550x978-1.jpg?fit=550%2C978&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,978\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0Heritage-article-Chart2-550&amp;#215;978-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Heritage-article-Chart2-550x978-1.jpg?fit=550%2C978&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Heritage-article-Chart2-550x978-1.jpg?resize=550%2C978&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-298640\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Heritage-article-Chart2-550x978-1.jpg?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Heritage-article-Chart2-550x978-1.jpg?resize=169%2C300&amp;ssl=1 169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since commenter Nate objects to my inclusion of the Corn Belt graph (yes, it is a small area), please go to the actual article link at Heritage.org where 2 out of the 3 graphs I provide are for global average temperatures. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":298645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Since commenter Nate objects to my inclusion of the Corn Belt graph (yes, it is a small area), please go to the actual article link at Heritage.org where 2 out of the 3 graphs I provide are for global average temperatures. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691826570,691826569],"class_list":["post-298638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-models","tag-heritage-foundation","tag-observations","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1226%2C899&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1fGK","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":299201,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299201","url_meta":{"origin":298638,"position":0},"title":"Spencer vs. Schmidt: My Response to RealClimate.org Criticisms","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/31\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"What follows is a response to Gavin Schmidt\u2019s blog post at RealClimate.org entitled\u00a0Spencer\u2019s Shenanigans\u00a0in which he takes issue with my claims in\u00a0Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models. As I read through his criticism, he seems to be trying too hard to refute my claims while using weak (and even non-existent)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/001979-2023-Tsfc-trends-obs-vs-CMIP6-restricted-ECS-range-550x516-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/001979-2023-Tsfc-trends-obs-vs-CMIP6-restricted-ECS-range-550x516-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/001979-2023-Tsfc-trends-obs-vs-CMIP6-restricted-ECS-range-550x516-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":262703,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262703","url_meta":{"origin":298638,"position":1},"title":"Epic Fail in America\u2019s Heartland: Climate Models Greatly Overestimate Corn Belt Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For the last decade I\u2019ve been providing long-range U.S. Corn Belt forecasts to a company that monitors and forecasts global grain production and market forces. My continuing theme has been, \u201cdon\u2019t believe gloom and doom forecasts for the future of the U.S. Corn Belt\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C682&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C682&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C682&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C682&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":264174,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264174","url_meta":{"origin":298638,"position":2},"title":"PJ Media, Steve Milloy, and Dr. Roy Spencer Show Climate Models Overestimate Corn Belt Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at the news and opinion website PJ Media makes the point that the climate models used to promote green policies have overestimated the warming seen in the Corn Belt of the United States. This is true, and in fact the temperature data from the region shows a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420929,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420929","url_meta":{"origin":298638,"position":3},"title":"Surface Air Temperature Trends, Climate Models vs Observations, 1979-2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"This is just a short update regarding how global surface air temperature (Tsfc) trends are tracking 34 CMIP6 climate models through 2025. The following plot shows the Tsfc trends, 1979-2025, ranked from the warmest to the coolest.","rel":"","context":"In \"(Tsfc) trends\"","block_context":{"text":"(Tsfc) trends","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=tsfc-trends"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1002&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":299670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299670","url_meta":{"origin":298638,"position":4},"title":"U.S.A. Temperature Trends, 1979-2023: Models vs. Observations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For the summer season, there are 26 models exhibiting warmer trends than the observations, and only 1 model with a weaker warming trend. The satellite tropospheric temperature trend is weakest of all.","rel":"","context":"In \"CMIP6 climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"CMIP6 climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cmip6-climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":283619,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283619","url_meta":{"origin":298638,"position":5},"title":"Major Climate Alarmist Fail: \u201cThe Hottest Summer Ever\u201d that Never Was","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The \u201chottest summer ever\u201d is a failure by climate alarmist and the climate boogeyman media. Use your mind and don\u00b4t follow the climate propaganda. From Watts Up With That? Guest essay by Larry Hamlin A recent WUWT\u00a0article\u00a0addresses the failure by climate alarmist media and scientists to utilize NOAA\u2019s July through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmist\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmist","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmist"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-433.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-433.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-433.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-433.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=298638"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298638\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":298648,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298638\/revisions\/298648"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/298645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=298638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=298638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=298638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}