{"id":298405,"date":"2024-01-25T10:05:15","date_gmt":"2024-01-25T09:05:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298405"},"modified":"2024-01-25T10:05:17","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T09:05:17","slug":"surfing-the-sixth-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298405","title":{"rendered":"Surfing The Sixth Wave"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I keep reading about how we\u2019re already well into the \u201cSixth Wave Of Extinctions\u201d\u00ad. Now, I\u2019ve studied this question extensively. I started back in 2010 with a post called \u201cWhere Are The Corpses<\/a>\u201c, in which I looked at the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and found that contrary to the \u201cSixth Wave\u201d hype, 95% of mammal and bird extinctions occurred on islands and in Australia, where they were due to humans introducing new \u201calien\u201d species after millennia of isolation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Loehle got in touch with me and proposed that we turn it into a paper for the journals. He did the writing and I did the numbers, because I feel like I have to give myself a lobotomy to write in the dense boring style favored by the journals. He did an excellent job and shepherded it through the publication process, for which he has my eternal gratitude. It\u2019s published in Diversity and Distributions as \u201cHistorical bird and terrestrial mammal extinction rates and causes<\/a>\u201c, and it\u2019s gotten over 150 citations in the journals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But of course, the alarmism continued. Folks said things like \u2018But Willis, you only looked at mammals and birds. The Living Planet Index says there\u2019s been a 70% reduction in the numbers of vertebrate species since 1970\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I\u2019ve spent a good chunk of my life working outdoors, and I live in the forest and watch the local wildlife. That claim set my bad number detector ringing like the school lunch bell. I researched it and a few weeks ago I wrote another analysis called \u201cE Pur Si Muove<\/a>\u201c, in which I showed that the LPI claims were strongly contradicted by the Red List data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the claims continued. This time it\u2019s \u2018But Willis, the LPI only shows fish, mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. What about all the rest of life.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Michael Corleone said, \u201cJust when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!\u201d. So, once more into the breach, dear friends \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me start with some numbers from the IUCN Red List<\/a>. It\u2019s the official list of threatened, non-threatened, and extinct members of four great kingdoms of life\u2014animals, plants, fungi, and chromista. And what are chromista when they\u2019re at home? I asked that myself. Turns out they\u2019re a group of mostly single-celled and also some larger life forms that include diatoms, mildews, and sea kelp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Red List has data on some 157,190 species of all kinds in all habitats around the planet. I do love it that the first two on the list are the \u201cBlack Emo Skink\u201d and the \u201cViper Moray\u201d \u2026 great band names for 2024. Gotta love our most mysterious planet. Here are Red List results.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1. Red List results showing the number of species that they have analyzed.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Of these 157,190 species, 909 species are listed as extinct, with the earliest extinctions happening in the 1400s. The graph below shows the count of extinct and extant species.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2. All extinct and extant species with data in the Red List<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Mmmm \u2026 gotta say, I\u2019m not seeing the \u201cSixth Wave Of Extinctions\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving on, I find claims like these:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cDrastically increased rates of species extinctions \u2026 are well documented.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

and<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cNature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history \u2013 and the rate of species extinctions is accelerating.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So I thought I\u2019d look at extinction rates over time to see if \u201cthe rate of species extinctions is accelerating\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, as my studies have indicated, a disproportionate number of extinctions occurred on islands and Australia when melanin-deficient folks first stumbled upon them and introduced new, alien species. (I\u2019m told by the usually reliable sources that it\u2019s not politically correct to say \u201cmelanin-deficient\u201d. According to the best authorities, the proper term to use is \u201cmelanin-challenged\u201d, so all the white folks don\u2019t get triggered by being called \u201cdeficient\u201d \u2026 but I digress.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, these island species are only a small percentage of the total number of species\u2014as you\u2019d expect, there are far, far more species on the giant continents and in the ocean than on the small islands. And there are no more undiscovered islands to face the full onslaught of introduced species. However, the islands contain a large percentage of all extinctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So setting those extinctions aside for the moment, here is the history of all of the continental and marine Red List extinctions for which the Red List has a date for the extinction. The early data is sparse and as a result, contains few extinctions per year, so I\u2019ve shown the period 1850-on when far more extinctions were occurring per year, and for which we have much better data.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 3. All extinctions of continental and marine species, 1850 to Jan 2024. These are grouped into 5-year bins. The red line is the trend from 1850 to 2000 rather than to the present, to avoid distorting the trend because it can take a couple of decades for an extinction to be verified.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

And to close the circle, here\u2019s the same analysis including all of the known extinctions which have a date for the extinction.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 4. All known extinctions of all species, 1850 to Jan 2024. Details as in Figure 3. Note that with the inclusion of island extinctions, the average extinction rate is double that of Figure 3.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

As you can see, there\u2019s been no significant trend in the rate of extinctions over the last 150 years, either just including the continental and marine species, or including all species.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, is the post-1850 rate of extinctions greater than the geological rate? Absolutely. It\u2019s an order of magnitude or so greater.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But is it a \u201cSixth Wave Of Extinctions\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s consider it this way. The 1850-2000 average is 3.6 extinctions of continental and marine species per year, with a peak value of about 8 extinctions per year. The Red List contains 157,190 continental and marine species, of which 909 are extinct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if the rate of extinctions continues at the current level, by the year 2100 we\u2019d see an additional 3.6 extinctions\/year * 76 years = 274 extinctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But heck, let\u2019s get radical\u2014let\u2019s use ten times that current extinction rate<\/strong>, or 36 extinctions per year. It\u2019s extremely unlikely, it\u2019s never happened in the Red List record, but for this analysis, let\u2019s use that extinction rate to be very conservative on the safe side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would give us 3,645 total extinctions by the year 2100. Here\u2019s how that would look, shown to the same scale as Figure 2.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Sorry, friends, but I gotta say that even if extinctions increased to an unbelievable ten times the current extinction rate, I\u2019m still not seeing the fabled \u201cSixth Wave Of Extinctions\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, does this mean we shouldn\u2019t care about extinctions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Absolutely not. We need to be aware of all of the results of our human actions, and wherever possible and practical, make allowances for the creatures that we share the planet with. I worked a good chunk of my life as a commercial fisherman. I\u2019d love for my two-year-old grandson to be able to do the same \u2026 and the only way to do that is to be sensitive to our effects on the ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, we also need to maintain a sense of proportion. Extinctions are a part of how nature works. Fun fact: ~99.9% of all species that ever existed have gone extinct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if some given species, after millions of years of evolution, only exists in a tiny area of the planet, its odds of extinction are very high no matter what we do. It obviously cannot adapt to even the smallest change in its surroundings\u2014if it could, it would be found in a far larger range. Here\u2019s a Red List description of one such extinct species:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cStypodon signifer [Stumptooth Minnow]: This species is only known from 6 specimens collected in 1880 and 1903, so its biology is mostly unknown. It occurred in springs on the floor of the Parras Valley [in Guanajuato, Mexico].\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Sorry to be so blunt, but that joker is one of nature\u2019s losers circling the drain. And fighting to prevent its extinction would have been a waste of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TL;DR Version?<\/strong> The \u201cSixth Wave\u201d ain\u2019t waving, so if someone starts telling you about the \u201cSixth Wave Of Extinctions\u201d, feel free to laugh and refer them to this analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My Usual<\/strong>: When you comment, please quote the exact words you\u2019re discussing. It avoids endless misunderstandings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

And if some given species, after millions of years of evolution, only exists in a tiny area of the planet, its odds of extinction are very high no matter what we do. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":298415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"And if some given species, after millions of years of evolution, only exists in a tiny area of the planet, its odds of extinction are very high no matter what we do. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691826534,691826533,691826535,691826051],"class_list":{"0":"post-298405","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bird-extinctions","9":"tag-extinctions","10":"tag-no-significant-trend","11":"tag-red-list","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Mass-extinction_Great-Dying_Earth-Archives.webp?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1fCZ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":209076,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=209076","url_meta":{"origin":298405,"position":0},"title":"A \u2018Sixth Mass Extinction\u2019 Coming Up? 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