{"id":298294,"date":"2024-01-23T21:07:48","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T20:07:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298294"},"modified":"2024-01-23T21:07:51","modified_gmt":"2024-01-23T20:07:51","slug":"new-journal-of-climate-study-reduces-doubled-co2-climate-sensitivity-by-40-to-0-72c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298294","title":{"rendered":"New Journal of Climate Study Reduces Doubled CO2 Climate Sensitivity By 40%, To 0.72\u00b0C"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a022. January 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doubling the 2005 CO2 concentration (380 ppm) to 760 ppm only produces a globally-averaged 2.26 W\/m\u00b2 perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This doubled-CO2 forcing is close to 0 W\/m\u00b2 for large portions of the globe \u2013 including below 0 W\/m\u00b2 for Antarctica.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCC claims doubling CO2 produces a 3.7 W\/m\u00b2 TOA forcing, which is a 1.2\u00b0C direct (no feedback) temperature differential using the IPCC\u2019s 0.32\u00b0C per 1 W\/m\u00b2 formula (Seinfeld, 2008<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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Image Source:\u00a0Seinfeld, 2008<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A new study (Chen et al., 2023<\/a><\/strong>) published in Journal of Climate<\/em> assesses doubling CO2 from 380 to 760 ppm only yields 2.26 W\/m\u00b2, 1.71 W\/m\u00b2, and 0.55 W\/m\u00b2 forcing at the TOA, surface, and troposphere, respectively. These forcing values represent 0.72\u00b0C, 0.55\u00b0C, and 0.18\u00b0C temperature differentials, respectively (0.32\u00b0C\/W\/m\u00b2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global mean surface temperature forcing for doubled CO2, 0.55\u00b0C, would by itself appear to already cast doubt on claims that all or nearly all of the post-1850 >1\u00b0C warming could have been driven by anthropogenic CO2 forcing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Chen et al., 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The 2.26 W\/m\u00b2 globally averaged TOA forcing identified in this paper is 39% lower than the IPCC\u2019s globally-averaged estimate (3.7 W\/m\u00b2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO2 forcing is identified as highly variable and latitudinally dependent. At some locations, such as over Antarctica, doubled CO2 TOA forcing is negative, or below 0 W\/m\u00b2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe [doubled CO2] forcing in polar regions is strongly hemispheric asymmetric and is negative in the Antarctic.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that, as CO2 increases, its impact actually cools Antarctica. This contradicts the IPCC claim that CO2 climate sensitivity is amplified at the poles. It also undermines the alarmist claim that Antarctic ice melt (and consequent catastrophic sea level rise) is driven by CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chen and colleagues also report that CO2 has no effect on atmospheric transmissivity due to (a) absorption saturation (CO2 can have no effect beyond a pre-industrial concentration), and because (b) water vapor and cloud forcing overlap and thus dominate absorption in CO2\u2019s band.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[Transmissivity] in the CO2 band center is unchanged by increased CO2 as the absorption is already saturated\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he water vapor and CO2 overlapping at an absorbing band prevents absorption by additional CO2.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, water vapor serves to \u201cdampen\u201d the warming effect of increased CO2, which calls into question the IPCC\u2019s water vapor \u201cpositive feedback\u201d claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe water vapor usually damps the [doubled CO2] forcing by reducing the energy additional CO2 can absorb.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because this is a mainstream study published in a prestigious climate-focused journal, perhaps it may not be as readily dismissed by gatekeepers of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) paradigm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Doubling the 2005 CO2 concentration (380 ppm) to 760 ppm only produces a globally-averaged 2.26 W\/m\u00b2 perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This doubled-CO2 forcing is close to 0 W\/m\u00b2 for large portions of the globe \u2013 including below 0 W\/m\u00b2 for Antarctica.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":298301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Doubling the 2005 CO2 concentration (380 ppm) to 760 ppm only produces a globally-averaged 2.26 W\/m\u00b2 perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This doubled-CO2 forcing is close to 0 W\/m\u00b2 for large portions of the globe \u2013 including below 0 W\/m\u00b2 for ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818326,691818056,691819127,691826022,691823095],"class_list":["post-298294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-antarctica","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-sensitivity","tag-co2-concentrations","tag-top-of-the-atmosphere-toa","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0sdut-environment-scripps-antarctica-staudigel-2014jan17.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1fBc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":296030,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=296030","url_meta":{"origin":298294,"position":0},"title":"New Research Says Doubling CO2 Leads To A \u2018Sometimes\u2019 Negative Greenhouse Effect","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/16\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It has previously been reported that as CO2 increases from 380 ppm to 1000 ppm, the CO2 greenhouse effect is negative (-2.9 W\/m\u00b2) over Antarctica, or that CO2 \u201cincreases radiative cooling\u201d there","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00article12404.large_.jpg?fit=1200%2C712&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00article12404.large_.jpg?fit=1200%2C712&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00article12404.large_.jpg?fit=1200%2C712&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00article12404.large_.jpg?fit=1200%2C712&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00article12404.large_.jpg?fit=1200%2C712&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351059,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351059","url_meta":{"origin":298294,"position":1},"title":"\u00a0New Study: Human Contribution To Enhancement Of Earth\u2019s Greenhouse Effect A Negligible 0.2 Percent","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/13\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% \u2013 5%. 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November 2023 Variations in the greenhouse effect are predominantly modulated by water vapor and cloud cover. CO2\u2019s role in the greenhouse effect is so minor it cannot be discerned. 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