{"id":297866,"date":"2024-01-22T13:11:18","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T12:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297866"},"modified":"2024-01-22T13:11:21","modified_gmt":"2024-01-22T12:11:21","slug":"climate-chiefs-admitted-net-zero-plan-based-on-insufficient-data-leading-physicist-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297866","title":{"rendered":"Climate chiefs admitted net zero plan based on insufficient data, leading physicist says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key committee only looked at \u2018a single year of data\u2019 when making controversial green energy claims<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Britain\u2019s climate watchdog has privately admitted that a number of its key net zero<\/a> recommendations may have relied on insufficient data, it has been claimed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, who led a recent\u00a0Royal Society<\/a>\u00a0study on future energy supply, said that the\u00a0Climate Change Committee<\/a>\u00a0only \u201clooked at a single year\u201d of data showing the number of windy days in a year when it made pronouncements on the extent to which the UK could rely on wind and solar farms to meet net zero. The Telegraph<\/a> has the story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey have conceded privately that that was a mistake,\u201d Sir Chris said in a presentation seen by this newspaper. In contrast, the Royal Society review examined 37 years worth of weather data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week Sir Chris, an emeritus professor and former director of energy research at Oxford University, said that the remarks to which he was referring were made by Chris Stark<\/a>, the Climate Change Committee\u2019s chief executive. He said: \u201cMight be best to say that Chris Stark conceded that my comment that the CCC relied on modelling that only uses a single year of weather data … is \u2018an entirely valid criticism\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CCC said that Sir Chris\u2019s comments, in a presentation given in a personal capacity in October, following the publication of his review, related solely to a particular report it published last year on how to deliver \u201ca reliable decarbonised power system\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enshrined in law<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But, in response to further questions from this newspaper, the body admitted that its original recommendations in 2019 about the feasibility of meeting the 2050 net zero target, were also based on just one year\u2019s worth of weather data. The recommendations were heavily relied on by ministers when Theresa May enshrined the 2050 target into law<\/a>. A CCC spokesman said: \u201cWe stand by the analysis.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 2021 The Sunday Telegraph revealed that assumptions underpinning the committee\u2019s 2019 advice to ministers included a projection that in 2050 there would be just seven days on which wind turbines would produce less than 10 per cent of their potential electricity outpu<\/a>t. That compared to 30 such days in 2020, 33 in 2019 and 56 in 2018, according to analysis by Net Zero Watch, a campaign group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sir Chris\u2019s report for the Royal Society, published in September, concluded that a vast network of hydrogen-filled caves was needed to guard against the risk of blackouts under the shift to wind and solar generation, which the Royal Society described as \u201cvolatile\u201d because it depends on wind and sun to produce energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report was one of the starkest warnings to date of the risks faced when relying on intermittent weather-dependent energy sources without sufficient backup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overestimate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It stated: \u201cThe UK\u2019s need for long-term energy storage has been seriously underestimated… Studies that do not consider long sequences of years underestimate the need for long-term storage. Studies of single years cannot cast light directly on the need for storage lasting over 12 months and overestimate the need for other supplies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a presentation delivered on Oct 31 2023, Sir Chris said: \u201cBy looking  at one year you underestimate storage and you grossly overestimate the need for everything else. That\u2019s exactly what the Committee on Climate Change have done.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added: \u201cThe Committee on Climate Change, as I already said, looked at a single year and they have conceded privately that that was a mistake. But they are still saying they don\u2019t differ that much from us. Well that\u2019s not quite true.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Royal Society report found that up to 100 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of storage will be needed by 2050, to mitigate variations in wind and sunshine. This was based on 37 years of weather data rather than the single year relied on by the CCC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full story<\/em><\/strong> here<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Key committee only looked at \u2018a single year of data\u2019 when making controversial green energy claims<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":297869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Key committee only looked at \u2018a single year of data\u2019 when making controversial green energy 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