{"id":297787,"date":"2024-01-21T14:08:11","date_gmt":"2024-01-21T13:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297787"},"modified":"2024-01-21T14:08:13","modified_gmt":"2024-01-21T13:08:13","slug":"flying-falsehoods-and-the-value-of-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297787","title":{"rendered":"Flying Falsehoods and the Value of Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ivor Williams<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part One: Flying Falsehoods<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it;<\/strong> <\/strong>so that when Men come to be undeceived, it is too late.\u2019 That was Jonathan Swift in 1710. You do wonder whether he might be referring to the more lurid descriptions of the Great Storm<\/a> of 1703, which is still the by far the worst weather ever to have hit this country since written records were made. However, back to the twenty-first century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take, for instance, the claim quoted by\u00a0Reuters<\/a>: \u2018This year is \u201cvirtually certain\u201d to be the warmest in 125,000 years, European scientists said on Wednesday\u2019 (8 November). We have recorded temperatures only for the last 150 years<\/em><\/strong>, but this irresponsible and totally fallacious comment then set off around the world, picked up by CNN the following day, featured on dozens of sites over the next week or two, and even turning up on the\u00a0South China Morning Post<\/a>\u00a0in January..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another version was \u2018The world hasn\u2019t been this warm for 100,000 years<\/a>.\u2019 Here is an announcement that had been decided back in July with the year still only six months old. The \u2018expert\u2019 in this instance did admit that \u2018records are based on data that only goes back to the mid-20th century \u2026 [but] they are \u201calmost certainly\u201d the warmest the planet has seen \u2026 for at least 100,000 years,\u2019 according to Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s how the damage was done. Perhaps even worse was the comment from that august and well-respected scientific journal Nature<\/em>.<\/a> \u2018Earth boiled in 2023,\u2019 they proclaimed, 2023 was \u2018officially the hottest on record.\u2019 Note the use of that word \u2018hottest\u2019 rather than \u2018warmest\u2019 whenever an editor wants to ramp up the panic, and you might wonder about that \u2018boiled\u2019 when you read the next paragraph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part Two: The Value of Numbers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it.\u2019 That was Lord Kelvin in 1883 so let us take his advice and look at some numbers. Our own Met Office<\/a> said: \u2018The global average temperature for 2023 was 0.17 deg C warmer than the value for 2016, the previous warmest year on record.\u2019 Less than one fifth of a degree warmer in eight years? Maybe dial down the panic somewhat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s more: it was also 1.46 deg C above the pre-industrial period 1850-1900. Global annual temperatures are now always anomalies: higher than, lower than etc, never real values. The quoted global annual average by the World Meteorological Organisation<\/a> for the period 1961-1990 is actually 14.0\u00b0C, but this does not sound anything like alarming enough so they use anomalies. It is possible (though not easy) to discover that the agreed \u2018pre-industrial\u2019 1850-1900 average temperature<\/a> is 0.31\u00b0C below that 1961-90 figure, which makes it 13.7\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Met Office is not the only organisation to feature two places of decimals; this implied precision to hundredths of a degree takes us far into fairyland. How can they possibly measure the average temperature over the entire world over both land and sea for a whole year, and come up with those ludicrous second decimal points?  Satellites perhaps? No \u2013 NASA<\/a> explains that they do not give sufficiently reliable data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There surely cannot possibly be any kind of meaningful global average annual temperatures for that 1850-1900 period. Even in 2024 we still have a thin coverage of reporting stations away from Europe and North America, and a very random coverage of the oceans. There were certainly very much larger gaps in the nineteenth century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, let us believe the data and see what it tells us. One message is contained in the sequence 2019-2023. All are anomalies, i.e. global averages compared with the 1850-1900 figure, and all are from the Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services by way of the official Met Office websites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2019           MO19<\/a>          1.05 \u00b1 0.01\u00b0C above. (Later changed \u2013 see text below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020           MO20<\/a>         1.28 \u00b1 0.08\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021           MO21<\/a>         1.11 \u00b1 0.13\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022           MO22<\/a>         1.16 \u00b1 0.08\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023           MO23<\/a>         1.46 \u00b1 0.01\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is global warming? Using the official data: in five years the earth has warmed by two-fifths of a degree Celsius above that notional pre-industrial age.Do the maths: 1.46 \u2013 1.05 = 0.41.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s more. The Hadley Centre switched from HadCRUT4 to 5 in 2020, and the value for 2019 was mysteriously changed from 1.05 to 1.25 (MO20<\/a>). Using that figure as the starting point for the five-year run the maths looks even more strange:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year 2023 @ 1.46 minus year 2019 @ 1.25 = 0.21\u00b0C. Now down to one fifth of a degree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You might be suspicious of the unbelievably precise tolerances attached to what are doubtful values in the first place. But there is already a bold forecast for 2024 (MO24<\/a>). The global annual average temperature will be \u2018between 1.34 \u00b0C and 1.58 \u00b0C (with a central estimate of 1.46 \u00b0C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).\u2019 Now there\u2019s a message which has not gone limping after any falsehoods, because no-one has thought it exciting enough to bother. The result does not fit in with headlines using words like panic, boiling, runaway, doom and so on, because this year is forecast to be the same as last year. No story there, say the editors and bloggers. That bit of news has not gone beyond the Met Office\u2019s own website. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global warming? If 2024\u2019s global annual average temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 levels is to be the same as 2023, then the total rise over six years (2019-2024) is forecast to be one fifth of one degree Celsius.Do the maths again \u2013 it\u2019s not complicated: 1.46 \u2013 1.25 = 0.21\u00b0C. That\u2019s a global warming rate of 0.03\u00b0C\/year. Far too small surely?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The January 2020 announcement from the Met Office (MO20<\/a>) gave the revised HadCRUT5 annual temperature anomalies (compared to that 1850-1900 figure) from 2010 to 2020. In those ten years the somewhat less than frightening rise was from 1.00 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2020. A quarter of a degree in 11 years? Still too small?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember that these anomalies all refer back to the same constant: the global average temperature over the years 1850-1900 which has been agreed at 13.7\u00b0C. Now look at the years 2010-2024, but converted to real-world temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year           anomaly \u00b0C          actual \u00b0C (13.7 added)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2010           1.0                               14.7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2011           0.89                             14.6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2012           0.93                             14.6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2013           0.98                             14.7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2014           1.03                             14.7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2015           1.18                             14.9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2016           1.29                             15.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2017           1.20                             14.9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2018           1.12                             14.8<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2019           1.25                              15.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020           1.28                              15.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021           1.11                             14.8<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022           1.16                              14.9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023           1.46                              15.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024           1.46                              15.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over fifteen years the officially declared annual average global temperature rise is therefore 0.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over fifteen years the rate of increase is therefore 0.03\u00b0C\/year.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s\u00a0Nature<\/em><\/a>\u00a0again with the conclusion to their \u2018boiling\u2019 comment: \u2018Climate researchers look ahead with trepidation.\u2019 If my research and maths are right then they must be getting worried about their forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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The falsehood can even become a \u2018noble lie\u2019 when exploited for political purposes.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":198512,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=198512","url_meta":{"origin":297787,"position":5},"title":"Free Speech Is the New Hate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201ca nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.\u201d\u2013 John F. 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