{"id":297744,"date":"2024-01-21T13:25:09","date_gmt":"2024-01-21T12:25:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297744"},"modified":"2024-01-21T13:25:12","modified_gmt":"2024-01-21T12:25:12","slug":"working-backward-to-check-my-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297744","title":{"rendered":"Working backward to check my work"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Remember when you were young to check your work, you worked backwards?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5 + 3 = 8, so 8-3=5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though, today if you \u201cfeel\u201d something else you might still get credit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we have more incoming solar radiation reaching the planet\u2019s tropical waters, this is going to be a cause for warming. But that means there has to be a lack of clouds over the tropical oceans. Over the last 10-15 years, Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) has increased and is opposite what it was in the 1950s. There is a plausible explanation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assume a normal distribution of temperature for the planet has it colder poleward and warmer toward the equator. In addition, there is much more sun naturally around the equator than there is in the polar regions. So vertical velocity pattern is established where the air rises in the means over the tropics and sinks just poleward from the tropics. This distribution is known as the Hadley cell. From\u00a0researchgate.net<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This forms what is called the Intertropical convergence zone. Warm moist air converging is naturally going to cause more cloudiness. So if there is more cloudiness, there is less sun reaching the surface and so less outgoing long-wave radiation. We can see that in the 1950s for instance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notice the negative OLR ( more clouds) over the central tropical Pacific and the Atlantic basin. So the air must be going up there, relative to the most recent 30-year averages.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

look at the last 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It has flipped around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a recent occurrence is more proof that there is more than meets the eye in what is driving this warming \u2014 at least in the shorter term (decades).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The El Nino this year is now in unprecedented territory not because it is so strong, but because there is a La Nina-like event occurring in the West Pac. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is circling strongly into phases typical of La Nina and for good reason. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to the east of Australia has warmed dramatically and much more than modeling had it. The fact is, over a one month period, this is unprecedented and is the opposite of the El Nino signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026astounding what is happening off Australia Other hot spots can be seen going off.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The water is warming 2C here in an El Nino. Hello Macfly. That is not the sun, it is not the CO2 fairy, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the average of El Ninos:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The water is cold there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead its very warm.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It is more like a La Nina.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

So what happens? The pressures are much lower across Australia than normal in an El Nino. In fact, the Southern Oscillation Index is now POSITIVE and that has never happened before when El Nino, as classified, by the Oceanic Index is strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what led to this? Even though its as popular among my skeptic friends and, of course, is trashed by CO2 people as Covid mandates (see that they have something in common, cumbaya, I have a suspicion which I keep offering evidence for. But this is a real-time example for you to see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me explain what these hot spots are doing. In terms of the oceans, it is as if there is a fight and whatever is causing this (I believe it has to be geothermally influenced, this one is going off in the area where the Tonga Volcano is and in the ring of fire). It is like landing a body blow to any cooling in the ocean. There is an immediate effect for one, but there is also a cumulative effect. When the natural response of cooling occurs, it still leaves the ocean a bit warmer. This keeps repeating and guess what happens? The cumulative buildup of heat, which the graphic below from Dr Arthur Viterito, shows in no uncertain terms: while SSTs from 1950 to 1990 warmed and cooled about equally which can be explained by natural variation and the overall processes in the ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

How is it 40 years of about even amounts of warming and cooling is replaced by this over the last 30 years?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

How can one simply ignore this?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But wait there is more. This from Dr Arthur Viterito:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026. I have a \u201cfirst-order\u201d approximation to match your SST map with the seismic activity map in the Southern Pacific. And what do you know \u2014 we get a VERY HIGH degree of spatial coherence between the two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, here is your SST map from 12\/13\/2023 through 1\/10\/2024 with a \u201cwatch box\u201d superimposed on the South Pacific:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

We see these hot spots (\u201cblobs\u201d, as Wyss Yim likes to call them) aligning in a straight line from the northwest corner of the watch box to the southeast corner (gray line).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now, here is the area of that watch box for underwater seismic activity for the same time period:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Here is the alignment of these seismic events (gray line):<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Please notice that the line of oceanic hot spots almost perfectly coincides with the line of seismic events in that part of the Pacific!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equally important, virtually all of these events are of shallow depth, meaning that they are most probably back arc basin events in the Western Pacific, and spreading zone events in the Eastern Pacific. In both cases, rising magma is involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have been told by people I love and respect this idea is like putting a Bunsen burner at the bottom of a swimming pool. NOT FROM WHERE I SIT AND WHAT I HAVE TO DEAL WITH IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER. Therein lies a huge problem. Most of the people on both sides of this issue are not operational forecasters, who have to deal with the result. I need the cause. But if you are only concerned with whatever climate change stance you are taking, you have your own idea and are not looking at things like this. So I am becoming more of an outcast even among skeptics along with Dr Arthur Viterito who is supplying me information on this matter, which I suspected first was going on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But try to see things my way, I can\u2019t keep having unforecasted hot spots go off that can impact not only local but global weather patterns, and no one seems to give a darn. Quite the opposite, in Alinsky-like fashion, which should make one suspicious, the idea is to isolate, demonize, and destroy the argument. So if it isn\u2019t this, then what the heck is it? Is it magic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again I am showing you a real time example. not after the fact, but while it is happening and affecting the weather globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if you FORECASTED THE WEATHER GLOBALLY you would be alarmed at this going on, not because it is wrecking the climate, but can wreck your forecast. The La Nina is coming back and will come back strong. The warming in that area is not only affecting the Indo-Pacific pattern, which is a crucial source region, but we are already seeing the compensating counter lurking under the El Nino.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The warmth of the Western Pacific means a natural La Nina Base state due to changes in the global wind and vertical velocity patterns, which is why we predicted the rapid collapse in the Spring and the threat of the monster hurricane season. And that is without this warming east of Australia. I have to wonder if a Super Nina is brewing. Before you start jumping up and down about cooling, all it does is level off the warming until such time the input mechanism reverses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But no one wants to research that. All grant money goes to re-enforcing man-made climate change. So where is my proof? ITS WHAT THE WEATHER IS ACTUALLY DOING. This kind of physical warming can not be caused by relatively short-term solar variations nor can it be CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, try to see things my way. I am showing you this in real time so I AM WATCHING IT WITH MY OWN LYING EYES. Are you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the atmosphere distorts the warmth, you change vertical velocity patterns, naturally weakening them over the tropics \u2014 meaning less clouds, more incoming solar, and more outgoing long-wave radiation. Models can\u2019t see that. But the lack of clouds is a by-product of the large-scale change in global vertical velocity patterns which are naturally stronger vs averages where it is warmer. The air can\u2019t go up everywhere so there is more sinking over the tropics because of it being warmer away from the tropics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I realize this will raise the ire of many. But it is occurring now, right in front of us. I won\u2019t need to wait to explain it. I have to deal with it going forward with forecasts. Most people do not. Indeed, I will bet most people have not even noticed this or the historical perspective as well as the changes it leads to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, that is a product of climate change.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But no way is that man-made.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If we have more incoming solar radiation reaching the planet\u2019s tropical waters, this is going to be a cause for warming. But that means there has to be a lack of clouds over the tropical oceans. Over the last 10-15 years, Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) has increased and is opposite what it was in the 1950s. There is a plausible explanation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":297773,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"If we have more incoming solar radiation reaching the planet\u2019s tropical waters, this is going to be a cause for warming. But that means there has to be a lack of clouds over the tropical oceans. 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Is it the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases [GHG], as the established climate science and the IPCC claims with its GHG forcer hypothesis? Or is it the natural variations in heat transport to the polar regions during winter, as the new \u201cWinter Gate-keeper\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic GHG emissions\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic GHG emissions","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-ghg-emissions"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-23-172017.png?fit=1174%2C613&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-23-172017.png?fit=1174%2C613&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-23-172017.png?fit=1174%2C613&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-23-172017.png?fit=1174%2C613&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-23-172017.png?fit=1174%2C613&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":355289,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=355289","url_meta":{"origin":297744,"position":5},"title":"Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It is now clear, at least to me, that modern climate models make many critical assumptions that are poorly supported and sometimes conflict with observations. 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