{"id":297691,"date":"2024-01-21T10:35:36","date_gmt":"2024-01-21T09:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297691"},"modified":"2024-01-21T10:35:38","modified_gmt":"2024-01-21T09:35:38","slug":"freezing-to-fight-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=297691","title":{"rendered":"Freezing to Fight Global Warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In mid-January 2024, Alberta’s grid experienced record electricity demand as Artic air sent temperatures plunging. Meanwhile, wind and solar output all but disappeared.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some things look great on paper until they are tested with the cold, hard reality.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Mass Image Compressor Compressed this image. https:\/\/sourceforge.net\/projects\/icompress\/<\/a> with Quality:50<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Substack<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By PENGUINEMPIREREPORTS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For years, the province of Alberta, Canada looked like a decent place to build large scale wind projects. Alberta has wide open, windy spaces. So, in the name of fighting global warming (AKA raking in government subsidies) wind developers built nearly 4,500MWs of wind capacity as of January 2024. Solar\u2019s installed capacity sits at 1650MWs for a combined wind and solar capacity of just over 6100MWs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In January of 2024, Alberta\u2019 wind turbines faced one of their most serious tests to date: a Polar Vortex pushed artic air down through Canada and into the United States. Temperatures plummeted, sending Alberta\u2019s grid demand sky high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CBC news<\/a> reported on Friday January 12th that \u201cJust before sunrise in Edmonton, temperatures hit lows of \u201337C (-34.6F), breaking a daily record of \u201332 (-25F) set in 1998.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it got colder.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Friday night going into Saturday (13th) at Edmonton International Airport, temperatures dropped to -45C (-49F) by 10pm (according to\u00a0weather.gov.ca<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As astute readers may know, a grid consumes electricity as it\u2019s produced. If Alberta needs 12,000MWs of power, it has to produced 12,000MWs of power at the same instant (more or less). If the real-time supply and demand gets out of whack, the \u2018pressure\u2019 on the grid drops, forcing grid operators to call on other generators, force customers to reduce demand, or initiated rolling blackouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And no grid should run at 100% capacity. A grid should keep some capacity in reserve. If your largest plant suddenly runs into trouble and has to be pulled offline, you want more than enough standby capacity to plug that gap. And, even the best generators might struggle to provide maximum output during extreme weather. So, to safely operate, a grid wants to keep some standby capacity, well in excess of peak demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the polar Vortex, Alberat\u2019s grid demand skyrocket, hitting 10,000, 11,000, and more than 12,000MWs of demand. To supply that demand, Alberta\u2019s gas plants have run hard, and the province had to rely on imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, at night, Alberta\u2019s 1650 MWs of solar were completely useless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And wind output failed too. On the night of Jan 12-13, during the record-breaking cold temperatures, wind output stood at only 14MWs at 2115hrs. That wasn\u2019t the lowest either. Early in the evening, wind output stood at 8-10MWs. But 8MWs would barely show up on the chart. So, we\u2019re going with output at 2115hrs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No, that\u2019s not an exaggeration. Basically, Alberta\u2019s wind was missing when the grid needed it most.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

While the exact wind and solar output varied, it remained extremely low for the past few days, based on data from\u00a0Alberta\u2019s Electricity System Operator<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With Alberta\u2019s wind and solar output basically not existent, natural gas plants, coal, hydro and imports are keeping the grid operating. Yet even with those dispatchable resources, some suffered issues and had to be pulled offline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the cold snap is still ongoing, there are two major issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The extreme cold brought with it a wind drought as the cold air stagnated over the region. Here\u2019s a snapshot of Edmonton Airport wind speed Jan 12-13. Yes, Edmonton Airport doesn\u2019t report wind speed at rotor height, but it gives you a fairly decent idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As astute readers may know, for a commercial wind turbine to operate, it needs wind speeds to be at least somewhere between 6-11 MPH<\/a> (~10-17 KM\/hr) (depending on turbine type). This is known as the \u2018cut-in\u2019 speed when the wind turbine starts to operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plus, wind power is a function of wind speed cubed. If you double the wind speed, you increase the wind power potential by 8x. It goes the other way as well. When wind speed drops to 1\/2, you go down to just 1\/8th of the potential power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to reduced wind speed, wind turbines aren\u2019t designed to operate at extremely cold temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

General Electric (one of North America\u2019s major turbine manufacturer) published a 2022 \u201cGE Renewable Energy\u2019s Cold Weather Solutions<\/a>\u201d document. In it, GE reported that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

GE Renewable Energy wind turbines are available from the factory with either a Standard Weather (STW) or Cold Weather Extreme (CWE) package. Standard Weather turbines have a minimum operating temperature limit of -15\u00baC (5\u00baF) while the Cold Weather Extreme turbines have a minimum operating temperature limit of -30\u00baC (-22\u00baF).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

If you have moderately cold weather (above -22F), wind operators can do things like install heaters and change out lubricants, so they don\u2019t freeze up the rotor. If the blades ice up, operators can apply de-icing agents to the blades to reduce the weight and reduce the hazard of flinging ice shards off as the blades spin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s only so much you can do for extremely cold temperatures, dropping below -22F.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turbines are made up of metals and plastics. And they are designed to rotate with extreme leverages and forces placed where the rotator and blades meet. When temperatures drop extremely low, metals and plastics tend to shrink, become brittle, and loose flexibility, running the risk of creating micro fractures in a turbine\u2019s assembly. Continued operations at extreme temperatures run the risk of permanently damaging the turbine, if not all together leading to catastrophic failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that\u2019s not all. Here is the shocking bit to pay attention to in the context of the extreme weather in Alberta. GE added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cFor CWE (Cold weather extreme turbines), the electrical components, gearbox and generator are designed\u00a0to survive<\/strong><\/em>, not operate,\u00a0down to -40\u00baC (-40\u00baF<\/strong><\/em>)\u201d (emphasis added).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And Alberta hit -49F. While we\u2019ll have to see how long the extreme weather lasts and what impact it will have on the provinces\u2019 turbines, it\u2019s fair to say that at least some turbines could potentially see an increased risk of long-term damage if the extreme cold continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If our leadership was paying attention, this wind disaster in Alberta should put a serious chill on pushing wind power as a viable solution, not if you want to see a resilient grid that is able to withstand extreme winter temperatures. Cold weather can kill, and it\u2019s when people need a grid to be the most reliable. Yet as we\u2019re watching in real time in Alberta, the only reason the province isn\u2019t literally freezing to death is because the province still has a massive amount of gas power plants, some hydro and coal, and enough transmission connections to keep the lights on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ll leave you with this screen shot from the Alberta Electricity System Operator on 1\/12\/2024 at 2115hrs. (According to power-technology.com, 900MW of gas at Cascade is finalizing construction. It\u2019s backed out for the following calculations.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At that time, gas produced at ~84% of its capacity. Coal was running at 99%, hydro at ~35%,\u00a0solar 0%, and wind\u2026at 0.3%<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0of nameplate capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If Alberta had listened to the greens\u2019 siren song and traded away more of its coal and natural gas plants for wind and solar, then we might be watching Alberta literally freeze to death in the name of fighting global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always, thanks for reading!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In mid-January 2024, Alberta’s grid experienced record electricity demand as Artic air sent temperatures plunging. Meanwhile, wind and solar output all but disappeared.
\nSome things look great on paper until they are tested with the cold, hard reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":297706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"In mid-January 2024, Alberta's grid experienced record electricity demand as Artic air sent temperatures plunging. Meanwhile, wind and solar output all but disappeared.\nSome things look great on paper until they are tested with the cold, hard reality.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691826428,691826429,691818087,691826434,691823530],"class_list":{"0":"post-297691","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-albertas-grid","9":"tag-artic-air","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-record-breaking-cold-temperatures","12":"tag-wind-projects","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0AP18067644492119.webp?fit=2560%2C1440&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1frt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":295346,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=295346","url_meta":{"origin":297691,"position":0},"title":"Rolling Blackouts Narrowly Avoided In\u00a0Alberta","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A critical emergency alert was issued on Saturday evening urging Albertans to reduce electricity use to minimize potential outages across the province.","rel":"","context":"In \"Alberta\"","block_context":{"text":"Alberta","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alberta"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":296025,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=296025","url_meta":{"origin":297691,"position":1},"title":"How did Alberta wind up facing blackouts in the extreme cold?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"With the\u00a0extreme cold, we are seeing very, very high demand. We set an\u00a0all-time record\u00a0Thursday night, 12,384 megawatts. The key difference \u2014 and there\u2019s never one single factor that puts us into a grid alert \u2014 it\u2019s the extreme cold, we\u2019ve had reduced imports and very little wind.","rel":"","context":"In \"Alberta\"","block_context":{"text":"Alberta","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alberta"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-16-131353.png?fit=1200%2C661&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-16-131353.png?fit=1200%2C661&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-16-131353.png?fit=1200%2C661&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-16-131353.png?fit=1200%2C661&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-16-131353.png?fit=1200%2C661&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":295366,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=295366","url_meta":{"origin":297691,"position":2},"title":"Alberta Grid Under Stress: EV Drivers Under Duress","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"When magical thinking meets a polar vortex cold, hard reality follows","rel":"","context":"In \"Alberta\"","block_context":{"text":"Alberta","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alberta"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-185606.png?fit=1200%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-185606.png?fit=1200%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-185606.png?fit=1200%2C620&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-185606.png?fit=1200%2C620&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-185606.png?fit=1200%2C620&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":264997,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264997","url_meta":{"origin":297691,"position":3},"title":"American and Canadian Prairies Suffer Calm Weather Wind Power\u00a0Wipe-Out","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a reason that windmills were abandoned in the 19th\u00a0century: it\u2019s called \u201cthe wind\u201d. 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