{"id":294516,"date":"2024-01-11T11:21:20","date_gmt":"2024-01-11T10:21:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294516"},"modified":"2024-01-11T11:21:23","modified_gmt":"2024-01-11T10:21:23","slug":"electrify-everything-dreaming-the-impossible-dream","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294516","title":{"rendered":"Electrify Everything: Dreaming the Impossible Dream"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014 9 January 2023 \u2014 1400 words\/6 minutes<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The new mantra for the renewable energy advocates of almost all stripes is: \u201cElectrify Everything<\/strong>\u201d.  Think not?  Try an internet search for the phrase: \u201celectrify everything\u201d \u2014   a few samples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We Need to Make \u2018Electrifying Everything\u2019 Easier<\/em><\/a> \u2014 Scientific American \u2014 Jul 1, 2022<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electrify Everything<\/em><\/a> \u2014 Center for Energy and Environment \u2014 Jan 1, 2023<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electrify Everything<\/em><\/a> \u2014 Mother Jones  \u2014 Apr 18, 2023<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why and How to Electrify Everything<\/em><\/a> \u2014 Skeptical Science  \u2014 May 4, 2022<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022: The Year that Launched the Electrify Everything Movement<\/em><\/a> \u2013 Sierra Club \u2014 Dec 12, 2022<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How electrification became a major tool for fighting climate change<\/em><\/a>. \u2013 NY Times \u2014 April 14, 2023<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electrify Everything Everywhere All At Once For The Climate And Economy<\/em><\/a> \u2014 Forbes   Nov 6, 2023<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me start with the claims made in the NY Times<\/em> news item \u2014 by Nadja Popovich<\/a> and Brad Plumer<\/a> \u2014  published last April in the NY Times<\/a> ( repeating the link ).  Their main point is given in the first three paragraphs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe United States still gets most of its energy by setting millions of tiny fires everywhere. Cars, trucks, homes and factories all burn fossil fuels in countless engines, furnaces and boilers, creating pollution that heats the planet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To tackle climate change, those machines will need to stop polluting. And the best way to do that, experts increasingly say, is to replace them with electric versions \u2014 cars, heating systems and factories that run on clean sources of electricity like wind, solar or nuclear power.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But electrifying almost everything is a formidable task.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have at least one thing right:  electrifying almost everything is a formidable task.<\/em><\/strong>  It is not just formidable<\/a> \u2014 I suspect it might be  physically impossible<\/em><\/strong> in the present and probably in the short-term (years, decades).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another quote from the same Times<\/em> article:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCan the Grid Handle It?<\/em>  \u2014  Electrification would require sweeping changes to the nation\u2019s power grids. Under the scenario visualized above, <\/em>total electricity demand in the United States would roughly double by 2050<\/em>, even as overall energy use went down.\u201d \u2026.  \u201cTo meet that demand, electric utilities would need to add staggering amounts of new emissions-free power while making sure that all those newly electrified cars, homes and factories don\u2019t strain the system and cause blackouts. <\/em>They would also have to construct large new power lines across the country, both to accommodate far-flung renewable projects and to improve the reliability of the grid.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wrote just last year:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cHow Much of the Grid Must Be Upgraded?\u201d<\/a>\u00a0in which I examined the small case of upgrades needed to the grid just switch the homes of the California city of Palo Alto to \u201cAll Electric\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 I used this cartoon:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The transformers are circled in yellow \u2014 that\u2019s a lot of transformers \u2026.and many of them will be needing to be upgraded or replaced.  The problem?  We not only don\u2019t have enough transformers to do a major upgrade on the grid, the United States doesn\u2019t even have or manufacture enough transformers to meet current demand<\/a>.  And that problem is only going to get worse, not better, as demand grows ahead of the manufacturing capability.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The green box surrounds the long-distance transmission lines \u2013 from the generating stations (oil, gas, solar, wind, hydro) to the transmission customers to the utility companies and finally local transmission to the end-user customers \u2013 you and me.  We don\u2019t have enough \u2013 we will need far more to connect to different places of generation \u2013 and we aren\u2019t building them.   CNBC<\/em>\u2019s Catherine Clifford tells us why in \u201cWhy a U.S. national electric grid would be great for the climate \u2014 and is nearly impossible<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hey, but don\u2019t worry about the fact that a new, upgraded electrical grid is absolutely necessary<\/em> and is simultaneously \u201cnearly\u201d impossible<\/em> \u2013 the government is studying the issue!<\/a>   (\u2026I wouldn\u2019t hold your breathe while waiting for their solution).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not just the necessary political will and the necessary money (the government can \u201cjust print more\u201d), but do we have the necessary other physical stuff?  Transmission cables, insulators, high tension power line towers, on and on\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a nation, we don\u2019t have sufficient quantities of transformers or the manufacturing base to make sufficient quantities our own \u2013 many come from China. An analysis by the Heritage Foundation<\/a> considers this to be a national security issue<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about skilled laborers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLaborers?\u201d you may ask.  Yes, men and women with the skills to actually build<\/em> transmission lines.  For that matter, do we have the trained and qualified men and women necessary to just install the dedicated 240v outlet in your kitchen<\/a> to allow you to put in an induction stove or to install an EV fast-charger or two in your garage.  The Climate Crisis propaganda outlet GRIST<\/a><\/em> has run two stories on the problems of doing this:  \u201cHe wanted to get his home off fossil fuels. There was just one problem<\/a>\u201d  and  \u201cTo get off fossil fuels, America is going to need a lot more electricians \u2014 A shortage of skilled labor could derail efforts to \u201celectrify everything.\u201d<\/a>\u201d   Each details the trials and tribulations of a True Believer\u00ae  who sets out to \u2018do the right thing\u2019 and electrify their homes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The roadblocks?  The costs of all of the necessary equipment and total costs of the projects were far higher than they originally thought.   And, even when they trimmed back the projects to lower the cost, they had difficulty finding contractors who would do the work within a reasonable time frame.  There are not enough trained personnel <\/em>to do the work even at today\u2019s <\/u>demand levels<\/em> \u2013 no less if Electrify Everything<\/em> were to be mandated by municipal or state governments via laws or regulations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about the economics?  Aren\u2019t we constantly being told that electricity is far cheaper than gas or oil?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s ask the U.S. Department of Energy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the \u201cRepresentative Average Unit Costs of Energy\u201d<\/a> per million BTU (a measure of the heat content of fuels or energy sources).  This is the official document from the energy.gov<\/a>, for 2023.   Electricity costs over three times more<\/u> than natural gas<\/em><\/strong> per million BTUs with the costs listed.  Currently, for January 2024<\/em>, the average of state averages<\/a> is 13.9 \u00a2\/kWh,  a little lower than used in the chart. For Natural Gas, as of Aug 2023,  the average of state averages<\/a>, the cost was $13.65 per thousand cubic feet (MCF), also a bit lower than in the chart. [Your Local Costs May Vary]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, finally, out in California, where I last looked at the Electrify Everything <\/em>idea in regards to adding EV chargers and making homes all-electric in Palo Alto \u2013 Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)<\/a><\/em> has announced:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEffective Jan. 1, monthly electricity bills for the typical PG&E electricity customer reached an average of roughly $222 a month<\/strong>. That\u2019s 28.4% higher<\/strong> than the monthly electricity bill of $172.84 in January 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gas bills now average $72 a month. That\u2019s 6.1% higher than the average monthly gas bill of $67.89 in January 2023.\u201d <\/em>[source<\/a> \u2013 paywalled]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom Line:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don\u2019t have enough<\/strong> to Electrify Everything:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.  Not enough electrical grid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.  Not enough transformers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  Not enough raw materials<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.  Not enough skilled laborers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.  Not enough time (to meet arbitrary targets).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe, someday, we could sensibly electrify home heating, cooling and appliances.  But not anytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think electricity is cool \u2013 always have.  Did electricity experiments (all totally unauthorized and some terrifyingly dangerous) when I was a kid.  But the Electrify Everything<\/em> agenda is really an anti-natural gas\/fossil fuels agenda and is not being pushed for the benefit of citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, yes, this Electrify Everything<\/em> doesn\u2019t even touch Primary Power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heat pumps that can operate efficiently in sub-freezing temperatures are very expensive and lose efficiency in cold weather.  Even heat pump installers recommend having backup heat for when the weather turns very cold. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They promote induction stovetops<\/em> \u2013 not induction kitchen ranges<\/a><\/em> \u2013 the ovens in kitchen ranges are all plain old electric ovens using hot coils to bake your cake or braise your meat.  ONLY the stovetop burners<\/em> are induction.  If you are a baker, like one of my daughters-in-law, having an induction stovetop doesn\u2019t save you much \u2013 she has and uses two electric ovens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you can efficiently turn your Natural Gas to sensible BTUs in heating your home, the natural gas is far cheaper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The roadblocks?\u00a0 The costs of all of the necessary equipment and total costs of the projects were far higher than they originally thought.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":294524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The roadblocks?\u00a0 The costs of all of the necessary equipment and total costs of the projects were far higher than they originally thought.\u00a0","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691825051,691826151,691826152,691826153],"class_list":{"0":"post-294516","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-crisis-propaganda","9":"tag-electrify","10":"tag-power-grids","11":"tag-transformers","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Electricfy-Graphic2-for-Brimbank-News-website.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1eCg","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":349206,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=349206","url_meta":{"origin":294516,"position":0},"title":"\u2018Climate Extremism\u2019: Biden-Harris Admin\u2019s Own Data Undermines Its Fav Selling Point In Push To \u2018Electrify Everything\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/28\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Biden-Harris administration released data on Oct. 17 suggesting its push to electrify everything will ratchet up costs for American households, contradicting one of the White House\u2019s favorite selling points for its green agenda, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden-Harris Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden-Harris Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-harris-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/OIP-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/OIP-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/OIP-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/OIP-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/OIP-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":248863,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=248863","url_meta":{"origin":294516,"position":1},"title":"Column: The humanitarian horror that \u2018electrify everything\u2019 would unleash","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/21\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u2018Electrify everything\u2019 is a mantra of the crowd that sees a hydrocarbon-free future on the horizon. 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