{"id":294385,"date":"2024-01-09T18:12:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-09T17:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294385"},"modified":"2024-01-09T18:12:27","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T17:12:27","slug":"the-embarrassing-pause-in-arctic-sea-ice-loss-has-lasted-17-years-defying-ipcc-nsidc-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294385","title":{"rendered":"The Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Has Lasted 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Kenneth Richard<\/a> on 8. January 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[S]ince the dramatical decline of the ice extent in 2007, the summer Arctic sea ice area has not declined further.\u201d \u2013 Astrup Jensen, 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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Scientists have been using the year 2007 as the starting point for assessing Arctic sea ice trends for nearly a decade. A\u00a02015 study<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0published in\u00a0Nature Climate Change<\/em>\u00a0reported a \u201cnear-zero trend\u201d in summer sea ice over the 7 years from 2007-2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Swart et al., 2015 (full paper)<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Another 10 years have now passed and there is still no evidence of a further decline in sea ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is interesting because since late 2007 scientists have predicted Arctic sea ice would decline rapidly as CO2 continued rising \u2013 from 385 ppm in 2007 to 422 ppm today. There were 20 models referenced by the IPCC (AR4) projecting a 40% loss of sea ice by 2050 due to an allegedly enhance greenhouse effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a new study<\/a><\/strong> reveals there\u2019s been no declining trend in summer sea ice area over the last 17 years, and \u201cno apparent correlation\u201d between CO2 and sea ice trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Arctic Sea ice extent is measured by satellites and varies by day, month and year, and the yearly minimum ice extent will occur in a day of September month every year. The ice extent is much lower now (2023) than in 1978, when the satellite measurements began. However, it has not been a gradual decline. A major decline happened during the years 1997 \u2013 2007. Before that the decline was minimal and after that period, there was no significant downward trend.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Astrup Jensen, 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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