{"id":292998,"date":"2023-12-29T13:22:16","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T12:22:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292998"},"modified":"2023-12-29T13:22:18","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T12:22:18","slug":"the-bom-predicted-a-hot-dry-summer-right-before-the-flooding-rains-came","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292998","title":{"rendered":"The BOM predicted a hot dry summer right before the flooding rains came\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Australians are angry the BOM didn\u2019t see the flooding rains coming<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Worse, we\u2019re betting the nation on the BOM\u2019s ability to predict the climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tells Australians that record breaking extremes are getting worse because of our cars and our air-conditioners (that\u2019s \u201cThe State of the Climate<\/a>\u201c). But when the BOM can\u2019t predict record breaking rain a month in advance, or even the day before, we know the BOM doesn\u2019t understand what drives the climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somehow the BOM expect Australians to spend trillions and rearrange their economy based on their fifty year prophesies, but not to mind when \u201cthis summer\u201d goes right off the rails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in September the BOM issued its El Nino alert, and Australians were told it would be a hot and dry and to prepare for a summer of bushfires.<\/a> Farmer sold their lambs, and adjusted harvest accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was the BOM solemn prediction in late October, for the very next month of rainfall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across most of Australia the\u00a0odds were only 20-40% of getting average rain.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Instead this is what happened:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
BOM<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And in December most of the country was predicted to have a fifty fifty chance of getting \u201caverage\u201d rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
BOM forecast Oct 26<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But the real weather gods had another idea, and all the places under any shades of green below got somewhere from 100% to 300% of the average rainfall. The indigo and purple zones got even more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
BOM<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This was a savage downpour \u2014 seven feet of rain in five days fell at one location:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No fewer than 12 locations across far north Queensland posted record rainfall totals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some areas received a year\u2019s rainfall in a single day, isolating towns, closing highways and leaving hundreds stranded by surging floodwaters. Black Mountain near Cooktown recorded a cumulative 2189mm over the five days, while Mossman South, an hour northwest of Cairns, had 1935mm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013The Australian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the Mayor of Douglas Shire said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf this is so record-breaking, how did no one know this was going to happen \u2026 we need to have forecasts closer to what is going on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013The Australian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BOM suddenly wants to absolve itself of liability<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

People have noticed there is now a mandatory check box forcing users to agree to a legal disclaimer clearing the BOM of all liability:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Users of the BOM app now have to agree to a 699-word \u201cterms and conditions\u201d statement that includes \u201cinformation at this app \u2026 may not be accurate, current or complete\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo the maximum extent permitted by law, the bureau excludes any liability that may arise in connection with the BOM Weather app or any information or material presented therein or your access to or use of any of the same,\u2019\u2019 the bureau says in a \u201cterms and conditions\u201d statement that appears when a user attempts to download its app. \u2014 Mackenzie Scott, The Australian<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

They know they are in trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I say the BOM can have immunity the same day Australians can also tick a box excluding ourselves from any and all costs, imposts and taxes related to any BOM predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Australian editors <\/a>gives the BOM an escape valve it doesn\u2019t deserve:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

To be fair to the BOM, a hysterical and ill-informed media has allowed climate alarmism to infect reporting of what should be routine weather events.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For thirty years the Australian media has made hyperbolic scare stories about the weather while the BOM tacitly stood by and smiled. Where were they as the tenets of science were trashed, and critics were called \u201cclimate deniers\u201d? If the BOM are victims of this hyperbole now, they reap what they sowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BOM raised the stakes, and they don\u2019t get to weasel out by saying \u201cwe used the best science<\/a>\u201d as if the best science wasn\u2019t riddled with holes. If the science is good enough to throw away trillions of dollars, then the worst failures need a truckload of explanation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicting the weather is hard. We could forgive the BOM for getting a complex immature science wrong, but not when they also tell us it\u2019s just simple physics, they\u2019re absolutely sure, and there is no doubt they\u2019re wrong (give us your money!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tells Australians that record breaking extremes are getting worse because of our cars and our air-conditioners (that\u2019s \u201cThe State of the Climate\u201c). But when the BOM can\u2019t predict record breaking rain a month in advance, or even the day before, we know the BOM doesn\u2019t understand what drives the climate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":293009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tells Australians that record breaking extremes are getting worse because of our cars and our air-conditioners (that\u2019s \u201cThe State of the Climate\u201c). But when the BOM can\u2019t predict record breaking rain a month in advance, or ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691825795,691818216,691825794,691819134,691819751],"class_list":{"0":"post-292998","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-all-costs","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-bureau-of-meteorology-bom","11":"tag-climate-alarmism","12":"tag-taxes","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-15T131137.784-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1edM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":194543,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=194543","url_meta":{"origin":292998,"position":0},"title":"Long lost forgotten rain bombs \u2014 the BoM yells \u201cunprecedented\u201d while ignoring 120 years of history","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"If Climate Change was a real threat, the Bureau of Meteorology might even look at their own historic records. When Jennifer Marohasy\u00a0and Chris Gillham did just that, they found that as bad as the current situation is, it\u2019s happened before: The wettest\u00a0day\u00a0in Lismore was in February\u00a01954.The wettest\u00a0year\u00a0for Lismore was\u00a01893.There was\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/00Lismore-99th-768x506-1.png?fit=768%2C506&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/00Lismore-99th-768x506-1.png?fit=768%2C506&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/00Lismore-99th-768x506-1.png?fit=768%2C506&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/00Lismore-99th-768x506-1.png?fit=768%2C506&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":349881,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=349881","url_meta":{"origin":292998,"position":1},"title":"Seven years to go! Extremely bad science is the new normal for the climate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Brave scientists at the CSIRO and BoM have dug hard through the sacred Arc of the Climate Covenant, CMIP-6,\u00a0 to discover the horrible truth that we only have seven years (just seven!) until we pass through the sanctified Target-of-Paris on Halloween of 2031.","rel":"","context":"In \"Australia\"","block_context":{"text":"Australia","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screenshot-2024-11-02-154600.png?fit=1021%2C919&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screenshot-2024-11-02-154600.png?fit=1021%2C919&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screenshot-2024-11-02-154600.png?fit=1021%2C919&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screenshot-2024-11-02-154600.png?fit=1021%2C919&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293843,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293843","url_meta":{"origin":292998,"position":2},"title":"Cyclone Jasper & BOM Forecasting \u2013 Getting to the Truth","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For sure, it is difficult to forecast weather and climate, but the skill of new systems based on artificial intelligence (AI) show great improvement, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology remains wedded to its General Circulation Models.","rel":"","context":"In \"Artificial Intelligence (AI)\"","block_context":{"text":"Artificial Intelligence (AI)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=artificial-intelligence-ai"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":184005,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=184005","url_meta":{"origin":292998,"position":3},"title":"The Bureau of Meteorology finds Australia is still getting colder a century later","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/01\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Surprisingly, the World War I era temperatures are still changing. Mornings that seemed nippy at the time are now susceptible to frosts. Someone should warn the farmers \u2014 except they\u2019re all dead. Thanks to Chris Gillham for independently and laboriously going through the new\u00a0unannounced changes in another cycle of BOM\u2019s\u00a0hidden\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0australia-map-satellite-terrain-600.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0australia-map-satellite-terrain-600.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0australia-map-satellite-terrain-600.gif?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":303644,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303644","url_meta":{"origin":292998,"position":4},"title":"Carnarvon \u201cworld\u2019s hottest place yesterday\u201d is barely any hotter than it was in 1896","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Somehow man-made emissions have been heating the planet for 128 years but the current freakishly hot days are about the same as the ones when no one in Australia owned a car and CO2 levels in the atmosphere were\u00a0still under 300 ppm.","rel":"","context":"In \"1896 the Brickhouse Station\"","block_context":{"text":"1896 the Brickhouse Station","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1896-the-brickhouse-station"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0aerial-photo-of-carnarvon-in-western-australia-1200x735-1.webp?fit=1200%2C735&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0aerial-photo-of-carnarvon-in-western-australia-1200x735-1.webp?fit=1200%2C735&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0aerial-photo-of-carnarvon-in-western-australia-1200x735-1.webp?fit=1200%2C735&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0aerial-photo-of-carnarvon-in-western-australia-1200x735-1.webp?fit=1200%2C735&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0aerial-photo-of-carnarvon-in-western-australia-1200x735-1.webp?fit=1200%2C735&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":191838,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=191838","url_meta":{"origin":292998,"position":5},"title":"The Disaster at Lismore, Some Rainfall Statistics","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/03\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Statistics Torrential rains along the east coast of Australia have caused terrible flooding.\u00a0 I\u2019ve previously provided some statistics and\u00a0context for southeast Queensland, but the focus has since shifted to the town of Lismore in northern New South Wales. The wettest year on record at Lismore is 1893 with a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00Feature-1.png?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00Feature-1.png?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00Feature-1.png?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00Feature-1.png?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00Feature-1.png?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=292998"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292998\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":293010,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292998\/revisions\/293010"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/293009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=292998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=292998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=292998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}