{"id":292537,"date":"2023-12-24T15:25:55","date_gmt":"2023-12-24T14:25:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292537"},"modified":"2023-12-24T15:25:57","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T14:25:57","slug":"junk-science-alert-met-office-set-to-ditch-actual-temperature-data-in-favour-of-model-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292537","title":{"rendered":"Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5\u00b0C \u2018guard-rail\u2019 in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts<\/a>, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5\u00b0C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it \u201cwill trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement\u2019s goal\u201d. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5\u00b0C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5\u00b0C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years\u2019 past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2\u00b0C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this \u2018blend\u2019 will provide \u201dan instantaneous indicator of current warming\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes<\/a> to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model \u2018pathway\u2019<\/a>, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2\u00b0C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2\u00b0C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5\u00b0C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using anomalous spikes in global temperature, invariably caused in the short-term by natural variations such as El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>, is endemic throughout mainstream climate activism. \u2018Joining the dots\u2019 of individual bad weather events is now the go-to method to provoke alarm. So easily promoted and popular is the scare that an entire pseudoscience field has grown up using computer models to claim that individual weather events can be attributed to the actions of humans. \u2018Weather\u2019 and \u2018climate\u2019 have been deliberately confused. Climate trends have been shortened, and the weather somehow extended to suggest a group of individual events indicates a much longer term pattern. Meanwhile, the use of a 30-year trend dates back to the start of reliable temperature records from 1900, and was set almost 100 years ago by the International Meteorological Organisation. It is an arbitrary set period, but gives an accurate temperature trend record, smoothing out the inevitable, but distorting, anomalies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By its latest actions, the Met Office demonstrates that the old-fashioned scientific way lacks suitability when Net Zero political work needs to be done. Trends can only be detected over time, leading to unwelcome delays in being able to point to an exact period when any threshold has been passed. Whilst accepting that an individual year of 1.5\u00b0C will not breach the Paris agreement so-called guard-rail, the Met Office claims that its instant indicator will \u201cprovide clarity\u201d and will \u201creduce delays that would result from waiting until the end of the 20-year period\u201d. The Met Office looks forward to the day when its new climate trend indicator comes with an IPCC \u2018confidence\u2019 or \u2018high likelihood\u2019 statement such as, \u201cit is likely that the current global warming level has now reached (or exceeded) 1.5\u00b0C\u201d. In subsequent years, this might become, \u201cit is very likely that the current global warming level exceeded 1.5\u00b0C in year X\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is this latest proposal from the state-funded Met Office junk science-on-stilts? A variety of reasons include that climate models have barely an accurate temperature forecast between them, despite 40 years of trying. Inputting opinions that the temperature of the Earth might rise by over 3\u00b0C in less than 80 years is hardly likely to improve their accuracy. There are also legitimate questions to be asked about the global temperature datasets that record past temperatures. Well-documented poor placing of measuring devices, unadjusted urban heat effects and frequent retrospective warming uplifts to the overall records do not inspire the greatest of confidence<\/a>. At its HadCRUT5 global database, the Met Office has added around 30% extra warming over the last few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the\u00a0<\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":292540,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating te","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691818056,691821872,691818808,691818154,691820425],"class_list":{"0":"post-292537","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-alarmism","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-modelling","11":"tag-met-office","12":"tag-net-zero","13":"tag-temperature-record","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0fake-science_27c5571306.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1e6l","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":330649,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330649","url_meta":{"origin":292537,"position":0},"title":"Met Office Should Put 2.5\u00b0C\u00a0\u2018Uncertainties\u2019 Warning on All Future Temperature Claims","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It is \u201cabundantly clear\u201d that the Met Office cannot scientifically claim to know the current average temperature of the U.K. to a hundredth of a degree centigrade, given that it is using data that has a margin of error of up to 2.5\u00b0C, notes the climate journalist Paul Homewood. His\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bad Science\"","block_context":{"text":"Bad Science","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bad-science"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0thermometer-4767445_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0thermometer-4767445_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0thermometer-4767445_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0thermometer-4767445_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0thermometer-4767445_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301979,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301979","url_meta":{"origin":292537,"position":1},"title":"Met Office Says it Cannot Back Up its Senior Meteorologist\u2019s Claim on BBC Radio That Storms in the U.K. are \u201cMore Intense\u201d Due to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Met Office has been unable to back up a claim that storms in the U.K. are \u201cmore intense\u201d due to the effects of climate change. The claim was made by senior Met Office meteorologist Claire Nasir on January 22nd on BBC 5 Live\u00a0Breakfast\u00a0in the aftermath of Storm Isha, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00clare-studio_02.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00clare-studio_02.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00clare-studio_02.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00clare-studio_02.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00clare-studio_02.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":277844,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277844","url_meta":{"origin":292537,"position":2},"title":"40% of\u00a0Apparent Global Warming Since 1850 is Due to Urban Heat Corruptions, Major Study Finds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A major new\u00a0study\u00a0involving 37 scientists from 18 countries has concluded that global temperature estimates since 1850 have been heavily contaminated by the growth of urban heat where the thermometers are sited. The UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that urban heat accounts for less than 10% of recorded\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0thermometer-rising-city-heat.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0thermometer-rising-city-heat.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0thermometer-rising-city-heat.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0thermometer-rising-city-heat.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0thermometer-rising-city-heat.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408038,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408038","url_meta":{"origin":292537,"position":3},"title":"Washington Times Catch Up With Met Office\u00a0Shenanigans","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Washington Times has now caught up with the shenanigans at the Met Office, thanks to our Ray Sanders:","rel":"","context":"In \"103 climate stations\"","block_context":{"text":"103 climate stations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=103-climate-stations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQPctQKaSH-E0rf-g9XF4XLGomR90evI5uFhBj2fqw_UIKbNXHK7OWd95wrku01hjTyf9S39RSfbwvrcepxmYJmeVplz4xKO4kEcMLp6lVYaX3YrrMRdRv2MhXEJSmefU3MIKK3qPKhPYNlFgqXqa462uLGp.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQPctQKaSH-E0rf-g9XF4XLGomR90evI5uFhBj2fqw_UIKbNXHK7OWd95wrku01hjTyf9S39RSfbwvrcepxmYJmeVplz4xKO4kEcMLp6lVYaX3YrrMRdRv2MhXEJSmefU3MIKK3qPKhPYNlFgqXqa462uLGp.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQPctQKaSH-E0rf-g9XF4XLGomR90evI5uFhBj2fqw_UIKbNXHK7OWd95wrku01hjTyf9S39RSfbwvrcepxmYJmeVplz4xKO4kEcMLp6lVYaX3YrrMRdRv2MhXEJSmefU3MIKK3qPKhPYNlFgqXqa462uLGp.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQPctQKaSH-E0rf-g9XF4XLGomR90evI5uFhBj2fqw_UIKbNXHK7OWd95wrku01hjTyf9S39RSfbwvrcepxmYJmeVplz4xKO4kEcMLp6lVYaX3YrrMRdRv2MhXEJSmefU3MIKK3qPKhPYNlFgqXqa462uLGp.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQPctQKaSH-E0rf-g9XF4XLGomR90evI5uFhBj2fqw_UIKbNXHK7OWd95wrku01hjTyf9S39RSfbwvrcepxmYJmeVplz4xKO4kEcMLp6lVYaX3YrrMRdRv2MhXEJSmefU3MIKK3qPKhPYNlFgqXqa462uLGp.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":267159,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267159","url_meta":{"origin":292537,"position":4},"title":"Met Office Doubles Recent U.K. Warming Trend in Just 13 Months, Abolishing 15-Year Flatlining Trend","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Announcing the fifth revision, the Met Office said HadCRUT5 was now \u201cin line\u201d with other datasets. True, they are all at it with huge retrospective adjustments made at NASA and the U.S. weather service.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0The_Stupid__It_Burns_by_Plognark.png?fit=1055%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0The_Stupid__It_Burns_by_Plognark.png?fit=1055%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0The_Stupid__It_Burns_by_Plognark.png?fit=1055%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0The_Stupid__It_Burns_by_Plognark.png?fit=1055%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0The_Stupid__It_Burns_by_Plognark.png?fit=1055%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":263409,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263409","url_meta":{"origin":292537,"position":5},"title":"Climate Crisis Shock: No Change in Average U.K. Temperatures for More Than Two Decades","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It was a tad on the warm side last year in the United Kingdom. Climate journalists were in full Thermogeddon reporting mode.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00IMG_334102.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00IMG_334102.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00IMG_334102.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00IMG_334102.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00IMG_334102.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=292537"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":292541,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292537\/revisions\/292541"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/292540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=292537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=292537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=292537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}