{"id":292405,"date":"2023-12-23T13:53:43","date_gmt":"2023-12-23T12:53:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292405"},"modified":"2023-12-23T13:53:46","modified_gmt":"2023-12-23T12:53:46","slug":"after-cop28-what-transition-from-hydrocarbons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292405","title":{"rendered":"After COP28: What Transition From\u00a0Hydrocarbons?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n


From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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How Do You Want Your Energy \u2018Transition\u2019?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Mario Loyola wrote at The Wall Street Journal The Impossible Energy \u2018Transition\u2019. <\/strong> <\/a>Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After two weeks of negotiation, the United Nations climate conference in Dubai agreed last week to \u201ctransition away\u201d from fossil fuels.<\/strong> Left unanswered is whether governments<\/strong> are supposed to do that by reducing supply, reducing demand or both<\/strong>. A lot rides on the answer, but neither would affect the climate much.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the demand-side scenario, technology saves the day with cost-competitive renewables.<\/strong>\u00a0This is the\u00a0vision of the International Energy Agency<\/strong>, according to which the more rapid the transition from fossil fuels, the more precipitous the decline in fossil-fuel prices. In its\u00a0\u201cNet Zero Emissions\u201d scenario<\/strong>, oil demand drops faster than supply this decade, pushing\u00a0oil prices below $30 a barrel<\/strong>\u00a0soon after 2030, which corresponds to $1-a-gallon gasoline.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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Yet<\/strong> even with fossil-fuel prices near historic highs, effective renewable substitutes are nowhere near cost-competitive<\/strong>. They\u2019d have to get cheaper still to compete with $30-a-barrel oil. And in developed countries, especially the U.S., it\u2019s impossible to get permits<\/strong> quickly enough for the staggering amount<\/strong> of renewable capacity that would be needed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the supply-side approach, governments would slash oil production or impose rationing,<\/strong> hoping to make fossil fuels so expensive that renewables are the only option. This is the dark vision of \u201cStop Oil\u201d and Greta Thunberg.<\/strong> But as long as renewable substitutes aren\u2019t<\/strong> immediately available<\/strong> and oil and gas remain necessary, a small reduction in supply causes prices to soar.<\/strong> That means windfall profits for energy companies, scarcity for everyone else, and electoral danger for the governments responsible. Ms. Thunberg claims that climate change is a \u201cdeath sentence\u201d for the poor, but the poor are far more vulnerable to disruptions in energy supply.<\/strong> In the 1970s, an oil boycott aimed at the U.S. caused famines in Africa.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the stop-oil view was popular at Dubai, there were enough adults in the room to keep the conference from committing to it<\/strong>. \u201cThere is no science<\/strong> out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phaseout of fossil fuel<\/strong> is what\u2019s going to achieve 1.5 C\u201d<\/strong> (the Paris Agreement\u2019s proposed limit on 21st-century temperature increases), said conference president Ahmed al Jaber, \u201c<\/strong>unless you want to take the world back into caves.\u201d Saudi Energy Minister<\/strong> Abdulaziz bin Salman dared countries to try to choke off the oil supply: \u201cLet them do that themselves.<\/strong> And we will see how much they can deliver.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poor countries are clear-eyed about the danger of energy poverty.<\/strong> \u201cWe are not going to compromise with the availability of power for growth,\u201d said India\u2019s minister for power,<\/strong> R.K. Singh. China has more coal plants under construction<\/strong> than are in operation in the U.S. Few rich countries<\/strong> have announced plans to stop drilling for oil or gas<\/strong>, and none of those are major producers. Even President Biden ran away from increasing the gasoline tax as soon as prices went above $3 a gallon in the summer of 2021.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The administration\u2019s answer<\/strong> to this conundrum is to defer political consequences via the regulatory state.<\/strong> The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed to require that all coal and natural-gas plants shut down or adopt unproven zero-carbon technologies by 2038<\/strong>. Another EPA proposal would require 62% of all cars sold in America to be fully electric by 2032.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assuming they survive court challenges and future administrations, they would impose soaring prices and reduced mobility on Americans<\/strong>. They would have almost no impact on global temperatures<\/strong> unless other countries, including China and India, also commit to energy poverty. The question is how much damage these policies will do before they\u2019re abandoned.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Loyola teaches environmental law at Florida International University and is a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foornote:\u00a0 Advice from Berkeley Earth<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cThere is\u00a0no science\u00a0out there, or no scenario out there, that says\u00a0that the phaseout of fossil fuel\u00a0is what\u2019s going\u00a0to achieve 1.5 C\u201d\u00a0(the Paris Agreement\u2019s proposed limit on 21st-century temperature increases), said\u00a0conference president Ahmed al Jaber, \u201cunless you want to take the world back into caves.\u201d\u00a0Saudi Energy Minister\u00a0Abdulaziz bin Salman dared countries\u00a0to try to choke off the oil supply: \u201cLet them do that themselves.\u00a0And we will see how much they can deliver.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":292414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691825596,691825594,691820416,691820814,691818154,691819094,691825595,691825301],"class_list":{"0":"post-292405","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-achieve-1-5-c","9":"tag-after-cop28","10":"tag-greta-thunberg","11":"tag-hydrocarbons","12":"tag-net-zero","13":"tag-renewable-green-energy","14":"tag-stop-oil","15":"tag-transition-away","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0products-made-from-petroleum.jpg?fit=2000%2C1364&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1e4d","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":290579,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290579","url_meta":{"origin":292405,"position":0},"title":"The Oil Demand Outlook COP28 Leaders Would Hate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Oil producers slammed the IEA for manipulating data.","rel":"","context":"In \"COP28\"","block_context":{"text":"COP28","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cop28"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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From\u00a0The OilPrice.com By\u00a0Paul Dojman via CityAM The Cop28 climate summit has opened in Dubai, yet it is already clear that the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0da-2983-t3-cb-ca-1635x1090-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0da-2983-t3-cb-ca-1635x1090-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0da-2983-t3-cb-ca-1635x1090-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0da-2983-t3-cb-ca-1635x1090-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0da-2983-t3-cb-ca-1635x1090-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":334691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334691","url_meta":{"origin":292405,"position":4},"title":"Net Zero energy storage presents a battery of problems","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"An April International Energy Agency (IEA) report titled \u201cBatteries and Secure Energy Transitions\u201d attempts to slap a happy face sticker on technical, economic, and environmental barriers associated with energy storage requirements attached to achieving \u201cNet Zero\u201d CO2 emission goals by 2050 proposed by nearly 200 countries at the latest U.N.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"electric vehicles (EV\u2019s)\"","block_context":{"text":"electric vehicles (EV\u2019s)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-vehicles-evs-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Batteries-in-trash.jpg?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Batteries-in-trash.jpg?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Batteries-in-trash.jpg?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Batteries-in-trash.jpg?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Batteries-in-trash.jpg?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291299,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291299","url_meta":{"origin":292405,"position":5},"title":"COP28 \u2014 one big global Psy-op to screw more money out of a few patsies","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"What did I say? After the near collapse of climate talks, global leaders \u201crescued\u201d COP28 at the last minute, scoring top marks in Climate Bingo: the talks are \u201chistoric\u201c, \u201clandmark\u201c, \u201cunprecedented\u201d and use the actual phrase \u201ctransition away\u00a0from fossil fuels\u201d\u00a0 for the first time ever.\u00a0 Be still my beating heart.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Bingo\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Bingo","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-bingo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=292405"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":292416,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292405\/revisions\/292416"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/292414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=292405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=292405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=292405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}