{"id":292226,"date":"2023-12-21T19:07:44","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T18:07:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292226"},"modified":"2023-12-21T19:07:47","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T18:07:47","slug":"el-nino-behind-high-temperatures-in-2023-similar-to-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292226","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o Behind High Temperatures in 2023 \u2013 Similar to 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been a vintage year for politicised climate fanatics playing their new pseudoscientific game of joining up the jots of individual weather anomalies and claiming we are all going to die unless we submit to a collectivist Net Zero Great Reset. \u201cWe are living through climate collapse in real time,\u201d the UN\u2019s unhinged Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at the recent COP28 conference<\/a>. Mainstream media hypes the idea it will be the \u2018hottest\u2019 year ever, with records smashed almost every month. All of this cherry-picking conveniently ignores the dramatic effect of natural variation that could have been caused by a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> global heat transfer, along with possible changes arising from the Hunga Tonga volcanic explosion. Examine the latest global temperatures calculated by NASA and it can be seen that the recent months-long pattern of increasing anomalies is consistent with a similar rising record for the last El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> in 2015-16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table\u00a0below is compiled by GISS, the NASA global temperature dataset. The trend in higher anomalies \u2013 departures from the norm \u2013 seen from October 2015 through to April 2016 is similar to that seen from June this year. In an\u00a0enlightening essay<\/a>\u00a0published recently by the online science publication\u00a0Watts Up With That?<\/em>, Larry Hamlin notes that the highest prior GISS measured temperature anomaly at 1.37\u00b0C was in February 2016 and this compared with 1.44\u00b0C recorded last November (\u2018hottest month ever\u2019). This amounts to a higher anomaly of 1\/14th of a degree centigrade. The author states that the GISS data shows that the 2023\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>\u00a0is driving the current global temperature anomaly increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The effects of El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> are far from completely understood. It is essentially a large heat transfer mechanism from the tropics to the northern hemisphere. Forecasting individual weather changes is difficult, since its effects feed into many other natural atmospheric and oceanic movements. But scientists do know that it can produce widespread variations in local weather patterns, making a mockery of attributing bad weather in a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> year to human activity. The current El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> could even get a little stronger as it moves through the northern hemisphere winter. On the other hand, it could start to fizzle out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American weather service NOAA is currently uncertain about the future strength<\/a> of the present El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>, noting that while stronger events \u201cincrease the likelihood of El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>-related climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have undoubtedly been anomalous weather patterns this year, although the vast majority of drought\/wildfire\/hurricane agitprop makes sense only to long-time sandwich board wearers. Most extreme weather events are not increasing, and many have not done so for many years. In the meantime, the number of deaths caused by extreme weather has plunged over 90% in the last 100 years as humans, made vastly more prosperous by exploiting hydrocarbons, erect expensive protections from the ravages of Mother Nature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year there is another possible natural force at work in adjusting some of the usual weather patterns. In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano suddenly exploded depositing an astonishing extra 13% water vapour into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour accounts for around 4% of the atmosphere and although short-lived and constantly replaced, acts as a powerful gas trapping heat. Whatever the longer term consequences of the eruption turn out to be, it is likely to affect the natural hydrological cycle as the extra water precipitates out over the next few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year saw a flurry of scientific interest in Hunga Tonga, but it appears that recent published comments are downplaying its effects. Nevertheless a group of European scientists<\/a> has noted that the unique nature and magnitude of the global perturbation caused by Hunga-Tonga \u201cranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this shows that it is good science to examine every possible cause that could affect weather and longer term changes in the climate. The \u2018settled\u2019 science promoting Net Zero is junk science, since it fails to consider anything other than an unproven hypothesis that humans cause all or most climate change. As always, the wise words<\/a> of atmospheric scientist Professor Cliff Mass of the University of Washington are worth noting: \u201cThe more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability and the smaller the contribution of human-caused global warming\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em>\u00a0Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s been a vintage year for politicised climate fanatics playing their new pseudoscientific game of joining up the jots of individual weather anomalies and claiming we are all going to die unless we submit to a collectivist Net Zero Great Reset. \u201cWe are living through climate collapse in real time,\u201d the UN\u2019s unhinged Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at the recent\u00a0COP28 conference. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":292231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"It\u2019s been a vintage year for politicised climate fanatics playing their new pseudoscientific game of joining up the jots of individual weather anomalies and claiming we are all going to die unless we submit to a collectivist Net Zero Great Reset. \u201cWe are ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691818200,691819268,691820425],"class_list":{"0":"post-292226","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-alarmism","9":"tag-el-nino","10":"tag-global-temperatures","11":"tag-temperature-record","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-2016-El-Nino.png?fit=1800%2C900&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1e1k","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":308233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=308233","url_meta":{"origin":292226,"position":0},"title":"Collapsing El Ni\u00f1o Spells End to Year-Long Bout of Climate Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"To be serious, the current strong and natural\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event is starting to dramatically collapse with critical ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific ocean falling from 2.1\u00b0C above normal in late November to 1.3\u00b0C. The collapse in temperatures is even more dramatic at the sub-surface 300 metre level. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291766,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291766","url_meta":{"origin":292226,"position":1},"title":"NASA GISS Data Shows 2023 EL Nino Driving Global Temperature Anomaly Increases; NOAA Data Shows U.S. Nov. 2023 Temperature Anomaly Declining","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The NASA GISS global average temperature anomaly for November 2023 was released (provided below) which shows an El Ni\u00f1o driven value of 1.44 degrees C (2.592 degrees F) with the November outcome hyped in an\u00a0L A Times article\u00a0as being \u201ca new monthly record for heat\u201d and the \u201chottest November\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":365515,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365515","url_meta":{"origin":292226,"position":2},"title":"EXCLUSIVE: Sensational Findings Point to Hunga Tonga Eruption as Prime Suspect Behind Recent Temperature Spike","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. It was a genuine one in 100, even 200-year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":348716,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348716","url_meta":{"origin":292226,"position":3},"title":"2023\u2019s \u2018Record Temperatures\u2019 Were Not Driven by CO2 Emissions, New Science Paper Finds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It is becoming increasingly obvious to serious climate scientists that sudden changes in temperature and weather cannot be directly attributed to any long-term effect of warming caused by human-produced \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gases. Suggestions to the contrary are best left to climate comedy-turn Jim \u2018jail the deniers\u2019 Dale and the guided hands\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Attribution studies\"","block_context":{"text":"Attribution studies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=attribution-studies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0iconic_ENSO_elNino_lrg.jpg?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0iconic_ENSO_elNino_lrg.jpg?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0iconic_ENSO_elNino_lrg.jpg?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0iconic_ENSO_elNino_lrg.jpg?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0iconic_ENSO_elNino_lrg.jpg?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292537,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292537","url_meta":{"origin":292226,"position":4},"title":"Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0fake-science_27c5571306.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0fake-science_27c5571306.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0fake-science_27c5571306.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0fake-science_27c5571306.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0fake-science_27c5571306.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":336717,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336717","url_meta":{"origin":292226,"position":5},"title":"NOAA\u2019s June 2024 Global Time Series Average Temperature Anomaly Declining Trends Eviscerates Alarmists Flawed \u201cClimate Emergency\u201d Claims.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA has released its June 2024 updated Global Time Series average temperature anomaly data which demonstrates that the earth is experiencing declining trends of monthly anomaly values. This outcome signals the continued weakening of the most recent natural climate occurring El Nino event which commenced in the July period of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/00Climate_emergency_preview.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/00Climate_emergency_preview.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/00Climate_emergency_preview.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/00Climate_emergency_preview.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/00Climate_emergency_preview.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=292226"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":292233,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/292226\/revisions\/292233"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/292231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=292226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=292226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=292226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}