{"id":292096,"date":"2023-12-20T20:55:45","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T19:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292096"},"modified":"2023-12-20T20:55:48","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T19:55:48","slug":"el-bosque-a-village-overtaken-by-rising-sea-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292096","title":{"rendered":"El Bosque\u2014a village overtaken by rising sea levels?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Playa El Bosque<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014 19 December 2023 \u2013 1100 words\/8 minutes<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a story recently being pushed like mad by the climate crisis propagandists: El Bosque<\/strong>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last residents of a coastal Mexican town destroyed by climate change<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018It\u2019s time for us to go\u2019: the Mexican fishing village swallowed by the sea<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coastal Mexican town sees rising seas, storms and disappearing locals<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last residents of a coastal Mexican town destroyed by climate change \u2014  Flooding has destroyed the Mexican town of El Bosque<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We may be the first people displaced by climate change in Mexico, but we won\u2019t be the last<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And back in 2022, published in time for COP27:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mexican village blames climate change as sea swallows its homes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who, or what, is El Bosque?\u00a0\u00a0 In Spanish, the name means \u201cthe forest\u201d, but El Bosque is a forest no more.\u00a0 This century, it has always been a sandy little peninsula barely above sea level, poking out north from the Mexican coast between Veracruz and the Yucatan peninsula:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Just to the west is the port serving the Puerto Ceiba oil and natural gas<\/a> operations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first step in looking at this problem is to view the geography \u2013 as sea level is basically a geography problem \u2013 the relationship between the dry land and the sea.\u00a0 The satellite imagery above shows clearly some important points:\u00a0 El Bosque sits on a tiny hooked peninsula that extends out onto a very shallow shelf of sand, at the mouth of the Grijalva River.\u00a0\u00a0 The northeast side of the peninsula faces the Gulf of Mexico, while the southwestern shore is inside its own hook and protected from the waves:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The incoming swells are clearly visible even from space.\u00a0 Now imagine those northeast swells when Hurricane Isidore hit El Bosque (circled) \u00a0in Sept 2022:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How many hurricanes affect El Bosque?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A lot of tropical cyclones, all spinning in the same direction, nearly all north of El Bosque, with winds pushing water and waves down on El Bosque from the northeast.  To save you the trouble of counting, that is 37 tropical cyclones in 23 years.   That\u2019s a few more than the 23 in the twenty years before that \u2013 and, since the advent of the satellite era, there have been 106 tropical storms affecting the area of interest.   And that\u2019s a lot of wind and waves, peaking up over that shallow sandy bottom and smacking that little peninsula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh \u2013 wait!  What about Sea Level Rise<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ah, the Big Lie.  Nearly every news story blames sea level rise, at least in part,  for El Bosque\u2019s demise. So, let\u2019s have a look.  Disappointingly, there is no good long-term tide gauge in all of Mexico registered with the PSMSL \u2013 Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level<\/a>.   In fact, there does not seem to be any good long-term tide gauge data anywhere in Mexico\u2026many stations have decades of missing data.  One nearby station (on the Yucatan Peninsula), Progresso<\/a>,  has data from 1952 to 1984, then a separate record up to 1998-2012.   It is plainly marked: \u201cUse only with extreme caution.<\/a>\u201d  If its data is approximately correct, and there is no guarantee that it is even that, then from about 1960 to 2012 there was 100 mm or 4 inches of Sea Level Rise over those 50 years.  At that rate, for another ten years, we could guess<\/em> (and it is only a guess, it is not measured data) that Progresso has seen 120 mm or 4.7 inches of SLR (including<\/em> whatever VLM is seen at Progresso) since about 1960, which would be close to the expected century-long value for global SLR of 8-10 inches.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This, I admit, is lousy data.  But, it is what we have.  What we don\u2019t have is any data showing that SLR at El Bosque, or anywhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico,  has been in any way exceptional.  And, while five inches of SLR is not nothing<\/em>, it is not enough to flood and drown little El Bosque.  Sea level rise is not the villain in this little story\u2026nor is climate change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is to blame is this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0sand shelf off of El Bosque is only 9-14 meters<\/a>\u00a0(30-45 feet) deep.\u00a0 Most of that is shallow enough for me to free-dive.\u00a0 Storm-driven waves will build and peak and break as they are driven from the northeast by cyclonic storms onto the shore at El Bosque.\u00a0 Here is the result of decades of storms:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Again, we see the wave pattern clearly in the February  2023 image in the lower right.  Those waves rake the down beach from the point \u2013 you can actually see the massive breakers from space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The truth is that El Bosque will eventually be entirely washed away \u2013 it is simply a long-standing, but in no way permanent, little spit of sand, exposed to the wrath of every passing tropical storm that comes hurtling in over the Yucatan.  Like many of the barrier islands along the East Coast of the United States, the El Bosque peninsula is in constant danger of being cut in two at the narrow neck by the next big storm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not the result of any change<\/em> in the climate.  It is the result of the<\/u><\/em> climate<\/strong> of the Yucatan Peninsula, which is and (probably) has always been shaped by the tropical storms rolling in from the Caribbean and even some originating in the Atlantic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The solution to all of these local problems, whether blamed on climate change or some other imagined ill, is adaptation.  <\/strong>If your land is being eroded away by wind and waves then you must do something other than hope your national government or some international entity will come to your rescue.  For those poor fishermen at El Bosque, they will have to move.  And I hope that their government will give them some financial help in doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they can\u2019t blame climate change for their sorrows.  They have built upon the sand and the winds and waves have come. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Late Note: 1600 hr 19 December \u2014 Although a search of WUWT failed to note it by name \u2014 Anthony Watts covered this issue previously HERE.<\/a> \u2013 kh<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Narrative journalism gives a lot of legs<\/a> to propaganda stories like this.  This one has been repeated for the last two COPs.  It even includes photos of posters produced by poor kids that have lost their elementary school, probably requested by the news photographer.   It is a good human-interest story, nonetheless, but the Big Lie is that their troubles have been caused by climate change and sea level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beach erosion is a natural process and sand spits and sand-based barrier islands are extremely susceptible to erosion.  The time for them to act was a decade ago \u2013 build sea walls or move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

But they can\u2019t blame climate change for their sorrows.\u00a0 They have built upon the sand and the winds and waves have come.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":292108,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"But they can\u2019t blame climate change for their sorrows.\u00a0 They have built upon the sand and the winds and waves have come.\u00a0","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818102,691819743,691825530,691825383,691820037],"class_list":{"0":"post-292096","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-crisis","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-cops","12":"tag-el-bosque","13":"tag-sea-level-rise-2","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-Playa-El-Bosque.jpg?fit=1140%2C712&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1dZe","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":291500,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291500","url_meta":{"origin":292096,"position":0},"title":"Sand Dune Erodes?\u2013Blame It On Climate\u00a0Change!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Expect more sob stories like this one in coming weeks, as the climate establishment attempts to make us all feel guilty about using fossil fuels.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01200x0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01200x0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01200x0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01200x0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01200x0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286016,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286016","url_meta":{"origin":292096,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Amnesty International, \u201cClimate Change in Mexico\u201d is Not Displacing People","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"El Bosque, comunidad pesquera de Tabasco The World Meteorological Organization clearly defines that single\u00a0weather events are not the same as climate change. There has been no long-term trend in greater numbers of or more severe storms striking this area during the past few decades that would suggest climate change was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Amnesty International\"","block_context":{"text":"Amnesty International","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amnesty-international"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/01654407.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/01654407.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/01654407.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/01654407.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/01654407.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408546,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408546","url_meta":{"origin":292096,"position":2},"title":"Al Jazeera Is Wrong, Tuvalu\u2019s Islands Are Growing, Not Disappearing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In Al Jazeera\u2019s article, \u201c\u2018We don\u2019t want to disappear\u2019: Tuvalu fights for climate action and survival,\u201d reporter Lyndal Rowlands claims that the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu is on the brink of disappearing beneath rising seas. 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Nonsense. A new, first-ever global study of real-world data, not models, finds no evidence climate change accelerated sea level rise. This is a massive scientific scandal.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":400885,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=400885","url_meta":{"origin":292096,"position":4},"title":"Rising-sea hysteria debunked \u2014 but the \u2018climate change\u2019 cult won\u2019t care","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Yet another much-predicted climate-change catastrophe turns out to be baseless:\u00a0Worldwide Sea levels are\u00a0not\u00a0rising\u00a0any faster than a century ago.","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5 millimeters per year\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5 millimeters per year","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5-millimeters-per-year"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQO_98qwGUUl1hJxpjwBOObRdES-g7OHq3nVEwro6lYtMYSgMDzC81TpOIw8LoXEu6vB54gKl7diSZbOKomR_H3aETBQmII6w8U7bDzZccftjtC63fmttzf-X7Afb4W6n0qrB3CZH5V2JOSQAb2zrK_jIV1N.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQO_98qwGUUl1hJxpjwBOObRdES-g7OHq3nVEwro6lYtMYSgMDzC81TpOIw8LoXEu6vB54gKl7diSZbOKomR_H3aETBQmII6w8U7bDzZccftjtC63fmttzf-X7Afb4W6n0qrB3CZH5V2JOSQAb2zrK_jIV1N.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQO_98qwGUUl1hJxpjwBOObRdES-g7OHq3nVEwro6lYtMYSgMDzC81TpOIw8LoXEu6vB54gKl7diSZbOKomR_H3aETBQmII6w8U7bDzZccftjtC63fmttzf-X7Afb4W6n0qrB3CZH5V2JOSQAb2zrK_jIV1N.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQO_98qwGUUl1hJxpjwBOObRdES-g7OHq3nVEwro6lYtMYSgMDzC81TpOIw8LoXEu6vB54gKl7diSZbOKomR_H3aETBQmII6w8U7bDzZccftjtC63fmttzf-X7Afb4W6n0qrB3CZH5V2JOSQAb2zrK_jIV1N.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQO_98qwGUUl1hJxpjwBOObRdES-g7OHq3nVEwro6lYtMYSgMDzC81TpOIw8LoXEu6vB54gKl7diSZbOKomR_H3aETBQmII6w8U7bDzZccftjtC63fmttzf-X7Afb4W6n0qrB3CZH5V2JOSQAb2zrK_jIV1N.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290022,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290022","url_meta":{"origin":292096,"position":5},"title":"Climate Morons Blame the Wrong Factors for Sea level Rise!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"By Jim Steele Climate change drives less than a millimeter a year of sea level rise. Stopping the burning of fossil fuels will never protect coastal cities! If the climate change trend continues, 100 years of absolute sea level will only cause a rise of less than 4 inches. 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