{"id":291413,"date":"2023-12-15T17:34:06","date_gmt":"2023-12-15T16:34:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291413"},"modified":"2023-12-15T17:34:09","modified_gmt":"2023-12-15T16:34:09","slug":"u-k-health-security-agency-deploys-made-up-rise-of-5c-in-80-years-to-spread-alarm-about-dengue-fever-plague-in-london","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291413","title":{"rendered":"U.K. Health Security Agency Deploys Made-Up Rise of 5\u00b0C in 80 Years to Spread Alarm About Dengue Fever Plague in London"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The DAILY SCEPTIC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The threat of tropical mosquito-borne vector diseases becoming endemic in Britain in the near future made recent headlines in the unquestioning mainstream media, with particular pride-of-place given to the revelation that London could suffer endemic dengue fever transmission by 2060. Of course, like all good sandwich-board climate scare stories, this one has been walked around the park a few times in the past. In 2013, the Guardian <\/em>reported that \u201cleading health experts\u201d were urging the Government to take action against the growing threat of mosquito-borne diseases, since \u201cclimate change could bring malaria to the U.K.<\/a>\u201d. Back in 2001, the newspaper reported British health officials had warned that malaria could return to southern counties \u201cwithin 20 years<\/a>\u201d as the climate warms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest catastrophising report<\/a> comes from the U.K. Government\u2019s Health Security Agency (UKHSA), led by Dame Jenny Harries. It is highly political in tone with Professor Isabel Oliver, Chief Scientific Officer at UKHSA noting that it \u201cdemonstrates the impact that climate change could have on our society if we don\u2019t take decisive action\u201d. It does nothing of the sort of course because, astonishingly, the UKHSA has based many of its headline-grabbing predictions on climate models fed with a presumption that temperatures will rise by 4-5\u00b0C in less than 80 years. Since global temperatures have barely moved much more than 0.15\u00b0C in the last 25 years, this 4-5\u00b0C high emissions pathway, known as RCP8.5, is little more than a highly implausible invention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClimate modelling under a high emissions scenario suggests that Aedes albopictus<\/em> \u2013 a mosquito species that can transmit dengue fever, chikungunya virus and zika virus \u2013 has the potential to become established in most of England by the 2040s and 2050s, while most of Wales, Northern Ireland and parts of the Scottish Lowlands could also become suitable habitats later in this century,\u201d says the report. Dr. Lea Berrang Ford, Head of Centre for Climate and Health Security at UKHSA, added that \u201ca child born today will be in their working-age years when health impacts may peak or accelerate further, depending on how much we decarbonise now\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Linking public health in this way using invented future temperature rises is a disgrace. It does a grave disservice to the British public who are entitled to receive timely and realistic advice on current and future health threats, not politically-driven scare stories based on unproven science and garbage-in, garbage-out climate models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is particularly disappointing to see the UKHSA, an executive agency of the Department of Health, making such a play of RCP8.5. In its latest assessment report, the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that \u201cthe likelihood of high emissions scenarios such as RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5 [a later version] is considered low\u201d. The UKHSA is using a \u2018low likelihood\u2019 prediction to make fanciful, politically-inspired claims of tropical disease epidemics to scare the young, in particular, to follow a collectivist Net Zero agenda. Regrettably, the RCP8.5 pathway is responsible for much of the \u2018clickbait\u2019 science that still dominates the mainstream media headlines, from the Gulf Stream collapsing, to all the coral suddenly dying in the oceans. For its part, the UKHSA describes RCP8.5 as a \u201cplausible\u201d scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The science writer Roger Pielke Jnr. has long been a critic of its widespread misuse, noting<\/a> that we can view it as one of the \u201cmost significant failures of scientific integrity in the 21st century so far\u201d. His short explanation for how such an obvious corruption of the scientific process has been allowed to stand for so long is \u201cgroupthink fuelled by a misinformation campaign led by activist climate scientists\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I noted earlier, the vector tropical disease climate scare is dusted down at regular intervals. But the facts have refused to cooperate \u2013 since the U.K. Department of Health and the\u00a0Guardian<\/em>\u00a0first told us in 2001 it could appear within 20 years, malaria has been keeping its long-term low profile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In June this year, the UKHSA issued a more sober assessment<\/a> of malaria in the U.K. It noted that malaria \u201cis not currently transmitted in the U.K.\u201d, but travel-associated cases occur in those who have returned to or arrived in the U.K. from malaria-endemic areas. The above graph shows cases of malaria reported in the U.K. from 2002 to 2021. It shows they have remained fairly constant over the last 20 years, with major drops in the travel-restricted Covid years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em> Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The threat of tropical mosquito-borne vector diseases becoming endemic in Britain in the near future made recent headlines in the unquestioning mainstream media, with particular pride-of-place given to the revelation that London could suffer endemic dengue fever transmission by 2060.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":291419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The threat of tropical mosquito-borne vector diseases becoming endemic in Britain in the near future made recent headlines in the unquestioning mainstream media, with particular pride-of-place given to the revelation that London could suffer endemic dengu","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691818153,691819743,691825367,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-291413","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-alarmism","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-health-security-agency-ukhsa","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-347.png?fit=1920%2C1271&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1dOd","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":380340,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380340","url_meta":{"origin":291413,"position":0},"title":"The Guardian Is Lying About Mosquito-Borne Diseases in the UK","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a May 23 article \u201cClimate change could bring insect-borne tropical diseases to UK, scientists warn,\u201d The Guardian asserts that rising global temperatures are making Britain more hospitable to tropical mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, West Nile virus, and chikungunya. 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This is false. As CNN\u2019s own story notes, dengue bearing mosquitos are already endemic to the countries it discusses, causing thousands of illnesses and hundreds of deaths each year. Data does not support\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0mosquito-g8b8afffa1_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0mosquito-g8b8afffa1_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0mosquito-g8b8afffa1_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0mosquito-g8b8afffa1_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0mosquito-g8b8afffa1_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351876,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351876","url_meta":{"origin":291413,"position":3},"title":"Wrong, USA Today, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Worsening Dengue Fever","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at USA Today, \u201cDengue fever spiked to record levels in 2024: Climate change will make it even worse,\u201d claims that global warming has already led to a spike in dengue fever, and will lead to further increases of the disease as warming continues. 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But most people don\u2019t realise how prevalent Malaria was in previous centuries, because our ancestors called Malaria \u201cAgue\u201c.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0issue_mosquito_borne.jpg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0issue_mosquito_borne.jpg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0issue_mosquito_borne.jpg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0issue_mosquito_borne.jpg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0issue_mosquito_borne.jpg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291872,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291872","url_meta":{"origin":291413,"position":5},"title":"UK Health Security Agency boss criticised for tropical disease claims","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A leading expert in mosquito-borne diseases is fiercely critical of Professor Dame Jenny Harries, head of the UK Health Security Agency, calling her recent pronouncements on mosquito-transmitted diseases \u201centirely fictional\u201d and \u201cshameless\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"Asian Tiger Mosquito\"","block_context":{"text":"Asian Tiger Mosquito","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=asian-tiger-mosquito"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-441.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-441.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-441.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-441.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-441.png?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=291413"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291413\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":291421,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291413\/revisions\/291421"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/291419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=291413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=291413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=291413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}