{"id":291240,"date":"2023-12-14T11:24:42","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T10:24:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291240"},"modified":"2023-12-14T11:24:44","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T10:24:44","slug":"nothing-to-see-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291240","title":{"rendered":"Nothing To See\u00a0Here"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So move along now\u2026to Azerbaijan and Brazil<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0MARK HODGSON<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My thanks to Robin Guenier for drawing my attention to the prescient words of Bjorn Lomborg<\/a> written just five days ago, and predicting with uncanny accuracy the outcome of the latest COP farce:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spectacle of another annual climate conference is ongoing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until Dec. 12. Like Kabuki theater, performative set pieces lead from one to the other: politicians and celebrities arrive by private jets; speakers predict imminent doom; hectoring nongovernmental organizations cast blame; political negotiations become fraught and inevitably go overtime; and finally: the signing of a new agreement that participants hope and pretend will make a difference.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article from which that quotation has been lifted is well worth a read. Inter alia, it contains three killer paragraphs that go to the heart of the issue, but which are missing from most discussions in the mainstream media of climate change and policies associated with it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What won\u2019t be acknowledged in the UAE\u2014because it has never been acknowledged at a global climate summit\u2014is the awkward reality that while climate change has real costs, climate policy does, too.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In most public conversations, climate change costs are vastly exaggerated. Just consider how every heat wave is depicted as an end-of-the-world, cataclysmic killer, while the far greater reductions in deaths from warmer winters pass without being remarked on. Yet the costs of climate policy are bizarrely ignored.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyzing the balance between climate and policy costs has been at the heart of the study of climate change economics for more than three decades. Renowned economist William Nordhaus is the only climate change economist recognized with a Nobel prize. His research shows that we should absolutely do something about climate change: Early cuts in fossil fuel emissions are cheap and will reduce the most dangerous temperature rises. But his work also shows that highly ambitious carbon reductions will be a bad deal, with phenomenally high costs and low additional benefits.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That clear-sighted understanding, lacking from the vast majority of policy-makers (and tens of thousands of pointless hangers-on) attending the latest jamboree, sets out very clearly what is wrong with the whole COP process \u2013 it is predicated on misguided assumptions, and it fails in its own terms to achieve anything useful. So much for the background and the predictions. How did it actually measure up in practice?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bang on cue, I would say. The agreement that was finally signed off (at least, this is the latest iteration available) can be found here<\/a>. It is the usual mish-mash that we have learned to expect \u2013 a mixture of background information (known in the trade as \u201crecitals\u201d) and back-slapping mutual self-congratulation; followed by non-binding aspirations. Because they are non-binding, everyone can happily sign up to them, safe in the knowledge that no enforcement procedure exists to punish them when they fail to take it seriously and don\u2019t act on its exhortations. I suppose it\u2019s impossible to persuade almost 200 nation states to agree on anything meaningful, so to that extent it\u2019s difficult to complain about the inevitable fudge. However, this has happened on 27 previous occasions, so one might have thought that an understanding of Realpolitik<\/em> might have dawned by now. Perhaps it has, but they can\u2019t admit that the whole process is flawed and pointless, so on and on it goes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It runs to 21 pages and 196 paragraphs and achieves nothing. It \u201crecalls\u201d on 27 occasions what has been agreed to in the past. It \u201cunderlines\u201d the critical role of multilateralism and also \u201cthe urgent need to address, in a comprehensive and synergetic manner, the interlinked global crises of climate change and biodiversity loss in the broader context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as the vital importance of protecting, conserving, restoring and sustainably using nature and ecosystems for effective and sustainable climate action<\/em>\u201d. This is stated in a non-ironic way, with no apparent understanding of the often conflicting nature of these goals. It does however realise (another underlining) that the \u201cParties are not yet collectively on track towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals<\/em>\u201d. Another three \u201cunderlines\u201d are thrown in for good measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are nine acknowledgments of various kinds, including \u201cthat climate change is a common concern of humankind and that Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment, the right to health, the rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities, migrants, children, persons with disabilities and people in vulnerable situations and the right to development, as well as gender equality, empowerment of women and intergenerational equity\u201d. <\/em>I hope that satisfies the 90,000 hangers-on, though I very much doubt if it satisfies the people whose lives have already been blighted by renewable energy developments and associated activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

47 paragraphs are devoted to \u201crecognizing\u201d various issues, while five are devoted to \u201cnoting\u201d others. A further 19 are \u201cwelcomed\u201d, while a further nine are \u201caffirmed\u201d or \u201cre-affirmed\u201d. Four more are \u201cunderscored\u201d (I\u2019m not sure how that differs from underlining), and \u201cconcern\u201d, \u201cserious concern\u201d or even \u201calarm and serious concern\u201d are expressed on eleven occasions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bit of self-congratulation follows, with 19 things being welcomed. Then there follow a couple of \u201ccommitments\u201d. This is more like it. I assumed that we were getting to the meat of some real firm and binding clauses, since that\u2019s what committing to something usually means. Silly me. The reality is that the agreement is committing to fudge the issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paragraph 6 \u201cCommits to accelerate action in this critical decade on the basis of the best available science, reflecting equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty<\/em>\u201d. It sounds great, but it doesn\u2019t impose an obligation on anyone to do anything. On the contrary, it\u2019s a re-statement of the cop-out clause for the so-called \u201cdeveloping\u201d countries, a definition that has long since ceased to serve a useful purpose, since it includes countries like China and South Korea. I suspect that they are both very happy to see this being included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paragraph 153 \u201cReaffirms its commitment to multilateralism, especially in the light of the progress made under the Paris Agreement and resolves to remain united in the pursuit of efforts to achieve the purpose and long-term goals of the Agreement<\/em>\u201d. Well, that\u2019s nice, but again, nobody actually has to do anything as a consequence of this \u201ccommitment\u201d. The reference to progress made under the Paris Agreement also sits uneasily alongside paragraph 24 (\u201cNotes with significant concern that, despite progress, global greenhouse gas emissions trajectories are not yet in line with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and that there is a rapidly narrowing window for raising ambition and implementing existing commitments in order to achieve it<\/em>\u201d) and paragraph 25 (\u201cExpresses concern that the carbon budget consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal is now small and being rapidly depleted and acknowledges that historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions already account for about four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50 per cent probability of limiting global warming to 1.5 \u00b0C<\/em>\u201d). Still, who cares? After all, this waffle is all about throwing a bone to everyone with a bee in his\/her bonnet, rather than with achieving anything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, why have some people being getting mildly excited? Because of paragraph 28, I suspect:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions in line with 1.5 \u00b0C pathways and calls on Parties to contribute to the following
global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement
and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches:
(a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average
annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
(b) Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
(c) Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems,
utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
(d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and
equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050
in keeping with the science;
(e) Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia,
renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and
utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen
production;
(f) Accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions
globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030;
(g) Accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of
pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zeroand low-emission vehicles;
(h) Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty
or just transitions, as soon as possible<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

OK, so it talks about \u201cTransitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems<\/em>\u201d, but it doesn\u2019t oblige anyone to do so. On the contrary, it does nothing more than call on<\/strong> \u201cParties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches<\/em>\u201d. This is so weak as to be meaningless. Calling on someone to do something doesn\u2019t mean that they have to do it. Taking into account their different national circumstances is a green light for \u201cdeveloping countries\u201d (as rather generously defined) to ignore it, and even for other countries to seek to argue that their current national circumstances from time to time are so special, problematic, or whatever that they can and should ignore it too. Then there\u2019s paragraph 29:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition
while ensuring energy security<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any energy minister worth his or her salt can use that to claim to be complying with paragraph 28 while doing no more than paying lip service to it. Having said that, they don\u2019t even need paragraph 29 to come to their aid, unless they want the benefit of a diplomatic fig leaf, since paragraph 28 contains no binding commitments and no sanctions for non-compliance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agreement even contains 14 \u201cinvitations\u201d to various people to do various things. In a document such as this, such language is risible. It\u2019s tantamount to saying they might like to think about it, but they really mustn\u2019t worry if they don\u2019t want to. The same can be said of the 31 references to \u201cencouraging\u201d people to take action \u2013 it\u2019s not much stronger than inviting them to do so, and it certainly contains no element of obligation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There isn\u2019t even any hint of criticism for parties who have failed to comply with things they have previously been asked to do. Rather there is an expression of sincere understanding of the difficulties of doing so. Take paragraph 41:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notes the capacity challenges of the least developed countries and small island developing States related to preparing and communicating nationally determined contributions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that these are the countries that by and large make the most noise in terms of demanding financial contributions and \u201ccarbon\u201d cuts from developed countries, is it really to much too ask that they might make a bit of an effort themselves?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Section C deals with finance, and is interesting, since it recognises the enormous scale of what is being demanded (or should I say urged, encouraged, invited\u2026?). For instance, paragraph 67:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highlights<\/em> the growing gap between the needs of developing country Parties, in particular those due to the increasing impacts of climate change compounded by difficult macroeconomic circumstances, and the support provided and mobilized for their efforts to implement their nationally determined contributions, highlighting that such needs are currently estimated at USD 5.8\u20135.9 trillion for the pre-2030 period<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paragraph 68 \u201cAlso highlights that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are estimated at USD 215\u2013387 billion annually up until 2030, and that about USD 4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy up until 2030, increasing thereafter to USD 5 trillion per year up until 2050, to be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the monumental nature of those numbers, I find it strange that paragraph 78 \u201cWelcomes the pledges made by 31 contributors during the second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund, resulting in a nominal pledge of USD 12.833 billion to date, and encourages further pledges and contributions towards the second replenishment of the Fund, welcoming the progression over the previous replenishment\u201d<\/em>, since in the scheme of things, that is chickenfeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paragraph 158 \u201cAcknowledges the important role and active engagement of non-Party stakeholders, particularly civil society, business, financial institutions, cities and subnational authorities, Indigenous Peoples, local communities, youth and research institutions, in supporting Parties and contributing to the significant collective progress towards the Paris Agreement temperature goal and in addressing and responding to climate change and enhancing ambition, including progress through other relevant intergovernmental processes<\/em>\u201d. Is that by way of saying thank you to the 90,000 hangers-on for showing up? Or to encourage them to turn up again next year? If so, I suspect the organisers will be in for a disappointment \u2013 despite the fact that no doubt the \u201cclimate crisis\u201d will be even more incredibly urgent next year, I have a feeling that Azerbaijan as a venue might just attract fewer people than Dubai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would have ended by saying \u201csee you all again next year\u201d but, funnily enough, I suspect we won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So move along now\u2026to Azerbaijan and Brazil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":291242,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"So move along now\u2026to Azerbaijan and Brazil","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691825314,691818076,691823932,691825312,691825313,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-291240","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-47-paragraphs","9":"tag-co2","10":"tag-cop-28","11":"tag-cop-29","12":"tag-global-climate-summit","13":"tag-net-zero","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0nothing-to-see-here-move-along.jpg?fit=1366%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1dLq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":294077,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294077","url_meta":{"origin":291240,"position":0},"title":"COP29 Petrostate Climate Conference will be Held in Azerbaijan","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? 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Nations' climate confab (COP 29) in Azerbaijan, of all places, will convene less than a week after America's presidential election. It will be pretty glum gathering if Donald Trump returns to the White House. The jet-setting climate bureaucrats may be putting on a brave face claiming that \"global\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Azerbaijan\"","block_context":{"text":"Azerbaijan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=azerbaijan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-21-164942.png?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-21-164942.png?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-21-164942.png?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-21-164942.png?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-21-164942.png?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=291240"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":291244,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291240\/revisions\/291244"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/291242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=291240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=291240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=291240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}