{"id":291208,"date":"2023-12-14T09:07:01","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T08:07:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291208"},"modified":"2023-12-14T09:07:03","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T08:07:03","slug":"cop28-optics-deal-to-transition-away-not-phase-out-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291208","title":{"rendered":"COP28 Optics: Deal to \u201cTransition Away\u201d not \u201cPhase Out\u201d Fossil\u00a0Fuels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once again equivocation rules climatists.  After the uproar over demands to \u201cphase out\u201d hydrocarbon fuel, the wording was changed to say \u201ctransition away.\u201d  Thus the divide is papered over while alarmists claim agreement was reached to \u201cleave it in the ground.\u201d  Others will point to language such as \u201ctransition away in a just, orderly and equitable manner.\u201d  Just like Paris COP, everyone pledges and celebrates as though something has changed<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Blackmon explains the wordplay in his Forbes article COP28 Offers \u2018Transition Away\u2019 From Fossil Fuels But No \u2018Phaseout\u2019.<\/strong><\/a>  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COP28 just concluded feverish negotiations in its final hours\u2014actually, beyond its scheduled final hours\u2014with the announcement of a final agreement Wednesday that includes language committing its near-200 participating nations to \u201ctransition away from\u201d fossil fuels. That is the language negotiators landed upon to replace the previous language<\/strong> pledging to \u201cphase out\u201d the use of coal, oil and natural gas across the coming decades preferred by energy transition boosters.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many observers are no doubt left\u00a0wondering what the real difference is between the two phrases,<\/strong>\u00a0other than that the \u201ctransition away from\u201d language was found to be less offensive to big producers and users of these energy resources than a phasing-out turned out to be. It isn\u2019t a bad question, to be sure.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Advocates for this final language\u00a0claim it is \u201chistoric\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0in that it is the first time any of the 28 UN Conference of the Parties climate summits have overtly mentioned moving away from the use of fossil fuels in a final agreement. But it is fair to note that\u00a0countries across the globe have invested many trillions of dollars\u2014much of it funded by costly debt\u2014in efforts to \u201ctransition away from\u201d fossil fuels<\/strong>\u00a0over the last three decades now and little has changed.\u00a0The world still gets roughly 80% of its primary energy from coal, oil and natural gas,<\/strong>\u00a0only a sliver less than it did at the turn of the century. The world will use record volumes of all three fossil fuels in 2023, and most experts project it will do so again in 2024 and beyond.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, while this language may well be \u201chistoric,\u201d it is also merely a restatement of commitments<\/strong> many of the signatory governments have already embarked upon for years and failed to achieve<\/strong>. Honestly, it is difficult to envision how<\/strong> what amounts to yet another COP-generated word salad will do anything<\/strong> to change the undeniable global dynamic.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But COP conferences<\/strong> involving more than 190 participating countries with widely disparate economic and energy security priorities and 70,000+ attendees are not<\/strong> really designed to produce exponential step<\/strong> changes, are they? COP rules requiring unanimous consent to all language<\/strong> included in each subsequent final agreement ensure that commitments will inevitably be watered down<\/strong> with qualifying language designed to enable each country to act upon its own unique interpretation<\/strong> of what phrases like \u201ctransition away from\u201d actually mean.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those are bold words, but everyone should recognize that\u00a0\u201creal-economy outcomes\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0in, say, Peru or Uganda are likely\u00a0to look entirely different<\/strong>\u00a0than those in Belgium or Canada. The same is likely true of the respective outcomes we will see in the coming years in India as compared to the United States.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an example: If China wished to signify a zeal<\/strong> to \u201ctransition away from\u201d its own massive use of fossil fuels, it might decide to cancel its new program going into effect January 1, 2024,<\/strong> which will subsidize the building of hundreds more coal-fired power plants.<\/strong> Does anyone involved in COP28 expect that or any similar action by the Xi Jinping government as a result of its signing off on this agreement? Of course not<\/strong>. Beijing will interpret the phrase \u201ctransition away from\u201d as it sees fit and continue to prioritize its national energy security over any climate commitments.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of the day, this final agreement from COP28 seems destined to be remembered in the same vein as all previous COPs other than COP3 (Kyoto) and COP21 (Paris) are remembered\u2014as, to paraphrase William Shakespeare, a lot of sound and fury signifying not much at all.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnote:  Let the Blame Games Go Onto Steroids<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Once again equivocation rules climatists.\u00a0 After the uproar over demands to \u201cphase out\u201d hydrocarbon fuel, the wording was changed to say \u201ctransition away.\u201d\u00a0 Thus the divide is papered over while alarmists claim agreement was reached to \u201cleave it in the ground.\u201d\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":291216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Once again equivocation rules climatists.\u00a0 After the uproar over demands to \u201cphase out\u201d hydrocarbon fuel, the wording was changed to say \u201ctransition away.\u201d\u00a0 Thus the divide is papered over while alarmists claim agreement was reached to \u201cleave it in the gr","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818341,691818260,691825302,691825286,691825301],"class_list":["post-291208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-china","tag-cop28","tag-hydrocarbon-fuel","tag-phase-out","tag-transition-away","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0COP-28-UAE-Climate-Change-UN.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1dKU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":291581,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291581","url_meta":{"origin":291208,"position":0},"title":"COP28 Reality: Rejecting the Narrative on the Left (Part II)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"AL Jaber: I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I\u2019m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Al Gore Hype\"","block_context":{"text":"Al Gore Hype","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=al-gore-hype"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-15T131137.784.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-15T131137.784.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-15T131137.784.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-15T131137.784.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291228,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291228","url_meta":{"origin":291208,"position":1},"title":"COP28 Achieves Nothing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/14\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"COP28 has finished with the usual backslapping, tears and claims of a historic, planet saving, landmark deal.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0skynews-cop-cop28-cop-28_6376986.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0skynews-cop-cop28-cop-28_6376986.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0skynews-cop-cop28-cop-28_6376986.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0skynews-cop-cop28-cop-28_6376986.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0skynews-cop-cop28-cop-28_6376986.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291577,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291577","url_meta":{"origin":291208,"position":2},"title":"\u201cMany Will Die\u201d: Climate Scientists Respond to COP28 Fiasco","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Of course as COP28 demonstrated,\u00a0you can just wait until the most intransigent delegates are out of the room\u00a0before calling a vote.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate scientists\"","block_context":{"text":"climate scientists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-scientists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-13T175226.859.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-13T175226.859.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-13T175226.859.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-13T175226.859.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":289828,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289828","url_meta":{"origin":291208,"position":3},"title":"Cop28 president says there is \u2018no science\u2019 behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"UAE\u2019s Sultan Al Jaber says phase-out of coal, oil and gas would take world \u2018back into caves\u2019 The president of\u00a0Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, has claimed there is \u201cno science\u201d indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C, the Guardian and the Centre for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ant\u00f3nio Guterres\"","block_context":{"text":"Ant\u00f3nio Guterres","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antonio-guterres-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/093044519-2501-45e2-b8dc-01e1098731b1.webp?fit=1200%2C804&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/093044519-2501-45e2-b8dc-01e1098731b1.webp?fit=1200%2C804&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/093044519-2501-45e2-b8dc-01e1098731b1.webp?fit=1200%2C804&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/093044519-2501-45e2-b8dc-01e1098731b1.webp?fit=1200%2C804&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/093044519-2501-45e2-b8dc-01e1098731b1.webp?fit=1200%2C804&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290579,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290579","url_meta":{"origin":291208,"position":4},"title":"The Oil Demand Outlook COP28 Leaders Would Hate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Oil producers slammed the IEA for manipulating data.","rel":"","context":"In \"COP28\"","block_context":{"text":"COP28","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cop28"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0489829.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292405,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292405","url_meta":{"origin":291208,"position":5},"title":"After COP28: What Transition From\u00a0Hydrocarbons?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/23\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThere is\u00a0no science\u00a0out there, or no scenario out there, that says\u00a0that the phaseout of fossil fuel\u00a0is what\u2019s going\u00a0to achieve 1.5 C\u201d\u00a0(the Paris Agreement\u2019s proposed limit on 21st-century temperature increases), said\u00a0conference president Ahmed al Jaber, \u201cunless you want to take the world back into caves.\u201d\u00a0Saudi Energy Minister\u00a0Abdulaziz bin Salman dared countries\u00a0to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"achieve 1.5 C\"","block_context":{"text":"achieve 1.5 C","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=achieve-1-5-c"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0products-made-from-petroleum.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0products-made-from-petroleum.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0products-made-from-petroleum.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0products-made-from-petroleum.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0products-made-from-petroleum.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=291208"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291208\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":291218,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291208\/revisions\/291218"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/291216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=291208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=291208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=291208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}

Reuters quotes Anne Rasmussen<\/a>, lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, assessing the language as uninspiring. \u201cWe have made an incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really need<\/strong> is an exponential step<\/strong> change in our actions,\u201d she said.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n