{"id":289650,"date":"2023-12-02T18:56:23","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T17:56:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289650"},"modified":"2023-12-02T18:56:26","modified_gmt":"2023-12-02T17:56:26","slug":"natural-disasters-are-not-increasing-really","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289650","title":{"rendered":"Natural Disasters Are Not Increasing \u2014 Really"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014 1 December 2023<\/p>\n\n\n

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The fact that natural disasters are not increasing and not killing more people \u2013 due to climate change or any other fanciful cause \u2014 has once more been firmly entered into the peer-reviewed literature in a new paper appearing in the journal\u00a0Environmental Hazards<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper is Alimonti and\u00a0 Mariani (2023) titled:\u00a0\u00a0Is the number of global natural disasters increasing?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The abstract is available at the link on the title, but for the more-than-curious, the authors have supplied the Accepted Manuscript version and I have made it available in .doc format from the WUWT servers here<\/a><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As many know, Roger Pielke Jr. has been treating the world with this news,  regarding one type of disaster at a time, through his tweets on  X and his substack, The Honest Broker<\/a>. For example, on U.S. Floods here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And I have been writing specifically about the international disaster database known as EM-DAT here at WUWT. Starting in 2019 with \u201cHow Wrong Can One Article Be<\/a>\u201d, and followed over the last couple of years with \u201cEM-DAT Disaster Database Creating Data Disasters<\/a>\u201d and then \u201cEM-DAT:  The International Disaster Database<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gianluca Alimonti  [INFN<\/a> & Universit\u00e0 degli Studi di Milano, Department of Physics<\/a>, Milano, Italy]  and Luigi Mariani [Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics (DICATAM), Universit\u00e0 degli Studi di Brescia, Brescia, Italy<\/a>]   undertake a serious study of the question of increasing natural disasters because, as they put it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe fear of global warming leading to an increase in natural disasters of meteorological origin (drought, extreme rain events, heat waves, landslides, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, etc.) with disruptive effects on human civilization, has recently taken hold. This stimulated the birth of datasets capable of collecting disastrous past events. For example, a dataset exists of the earthquakes that occurred in the distant past in Italy (INGV, n.d.) as well as a dataset of flood events and landslides (CNR, n.d.). International datasets have also been created that aggregate data related to natural disasters. One of these is EM-DAT, which was developed in 1988 by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED [CRED, n.d.]) of the Catholic University of Louvain with the aim of rationalizing decision making to ensure disaster preparedness, while also providing an objective base for vulnerability assessment and priority setting purposes.\u201d    \u2014 from the abstract of Alimonti & Mariani (2023) (A&M2023 hereafter)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cfear of global warming\u201d mentioned has been repeatedly caused by various United Nations agencies and departments misrepresenting the EM-DAT data base to the world.  The first example, the 2020 report the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) titled \u201cThe human cost of disasters: an overview of the last 20 years (2000-2019)\u201d<\/a>, makes this statement:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018this report focuses primarily on the staggering rise in climate-related disasters over the last twenty years\u2019.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UNDRR uses this graphic: \u2026which does not support their statement of increasing disasters, but rather shows disasters either constant or slightly declining.\u00a0 The \u201cstaggering rise\u201d is meant to refer to comparing the data for 1980-1999 and 2000-2019.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The actual EM-DAT data looks like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Another report from the UN\u2019s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)<\/a> titled \u201c2021 The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security<\/a>\u201d  repeatedly makes the claims like \u201cDisasters steadily on the rise<\/em>\u201d.  FAO is using EM-DAT disaster data shown just above to make the false claim:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYet, are disasters truly becoming more frequent and dangerous or are we succumbing to perception bias?  Available data shows that increased disaster occurrence is indeed the new normal.  While, a quick short-run comparison with the preceding decade shows that there were relatively fewer disaster peak years in the 2010s, the overall level of occurrence remains at an all-time high. With the new millennium, disasters took a drastic leap in frequency and have continued to occur at a consistently high rate over the past 20 years.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the worst exaggerations is from \u201cUN News \u2014 Global perspective Human stories\u201d website<\/a>\u00a0with the headline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The headline refers to the report \u201cAtlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes (1970\u20132019)\u201d<\/a>  from the UN-associated World Meteorological Organization<\/a>.   The WMO must know it is not true<\/a>, they\u2019re the world\u2019s weather man. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Main Stream Media is full of the constant drum-beat claims that disasters are more frequent, more dangerous, more deadly and storms worse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\u2026.There is a problem.\u00a0 Of which the UNDRR, FAO, WMO and EM-DAT itself,\u00a0 were and are aware:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A&M 2023 does a yeoman\u2019s job of thoroughly investigating the one simple question:  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is the number of global natural disasters increasing?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper is a terrific read \u2013 it starts by examining the raw EM-DAT data, its data collection history and what claims EM-DAT itself makes for the data, which in its simplest form looks like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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(numbered Figures 1 \u2013 6 all from A&M 2023)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Without further consideration, this looks like an incredible rise in the number of disasters zooming up to 2000 and then leveling off at \u201can all-time high\u201d.   Alimonti and Muriani (hereafter A&M) use standard statistical techniques, coupled with the history of the dataset, to show that:  \u201cYes, that rise is literally \u2018incredible\u2019 \u2013 unbelievable.\u201d (My words \u2013 kh)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A&M use a standard piecewise regression method to discover break-points in the data set:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And, of course, the same results could have been accomplished using, as I did, my eye-ball method in my earlier essays or with paper-ruler-and-pen work.\u00a0 But, A&M are nothing if not steady and methodical in working through the question being asked, checking and re-checking their own work:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Expand the investigation to a peripheral question, \u201cAre natural disaster causing more human deaths?\u201d, a claim often made in the media as \u201cmore deadly\u201d, A&M prepared this graphic:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A&M wryly comment: \u201cDeaths caused by natural disasters since 1900 are shown in Figure 4 as accessory information: the decrease over the years is evident and is certainly not due to disasters decrease, but perhaps to a better prevention and defense capacity.\u201d  Over the same time period, 1900 to 2020, human population quadrupled \u2013 from 2 billion to over 8 billion \u2013 which would have more reasonably skewed the chart in the other direction, quadrupling the deaths in parallel with population growth. [ population data source<\/a> ]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To round out the investigation, based on the rather low threshold for including a disaster in the EM-DAT database (see\u00a0Inclusion criteria<\/em>\u00a0here<\/a>), A&M looked at numbers of disasters by increasing the death thresholds:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This view dispels the claims of \u201cmore and more deadly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will show one more of the graphics from A&M 2023 that should be used to show that the claim by FAO that climate disasters are increasingly threatening food supplies worldwide:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the paper, there is a note: \u201cThese crops were chosen because they represent the four main world agricultural commodities and account for about 64% of global caloric consumption (Gray et al., 2014).\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A&M conclude:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe EM-DAT dataset of natural disasters has been analyzed by means of the piece-wise method of Tome and Miranda, and it has been concluded that the trend is not homogeneous over the whole 1900\u20132022 series due to various factors, the main one being the growing reporting effectiveness. Therefore, before any trend analysis, the time series should be broken into sub-series: the most recent time interval, beginning in the first <\/strong><\/em>[22] years of the twenty-first century, shows a decreasing trend whose degree of realism is strengthened by the fact that the time series in the new century can be considered complete,<\/em><\/strong> given the increased effectiveness of the monitoring and reporting activities of natural disasters.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026the authors are concerned about the misrepresentation of the natural disaster trend because such claims have been uncritically broadcast by many different media and by FAO itself, thereby deforming the perception of the public on the risk of natural disasters.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMisinterpreting the trend of natural disasters is a very serious matter because exposes the world population to the risk of inconsistent policies at both a national and an international level, thereby wasting resources or diverting them from the resolution of much more concrete problems.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I couldn\u2019t agree more.  It will take decades to undo the damage caused by the almost-universal misinterpretation of the EM-DAT database by climate change activists and those who are under their thrall in the NGOs, international agencies, governments and, of course, intentionally in the mass media, spurred on by the Climate Crisis news cabals<\/a>. (and here<\/a> and here<\/a> and more).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the risk of being labeled a pessimist \u2013 I am, in my own opinion, a pragmatist \u2014 all official bodies will continue to use the false claims made in the various UN-backed reports and parroted in the media.  The lie is just far more useful to them than the truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The facts about the EM-DAT data have been known for more than a decade \u2013 have been publicly acknowledged by EM-DAT, and written about both in the US and Europe \u2013 A&M are not the first to do so. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But A&M 2023 is a solid piece of scientific research exposing the widespread misinterpretation and is published in an appropriate peer-reviewed international journal.  Hopefully it will make an impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a reminder, an Accepted Manuscript version of A&M 2023 is available for download here<\/a><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Watts Up With That? Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014 1 December 2023 The fact that natural disasters are not increasing and not killing more people \u2013 due to climate change or any other fanciful cause \u2014 has once more been firmly entered into the peer-reviewed literature in a new paper appearing in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":289669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The fact that natural disasters are not increasing and not killing more people \u2013 due to climate change or any other fanciful cause \u2014 has once more been firmly entered into the peer-reviewed literature in a new paper appearing in the journal\u00a0Environmental ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819089,691819088,691824958,691821138],"class_list":{"0":"post-289650","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-em-dat","10":"tag-natural-disasters","11":"tag-un-news","12":"tag-world-meteorological-organization-wmo","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-50.png?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1dlM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":267843,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267843","url_meta":{"origin":289650,"position":0},"title":"CRED Finally Admit There Never Was An Increase In Natural\u00a0Disasters","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Will the UN, WMO, BBC or all of the others who have peddled these pretty obvious falsehoods now apologise?","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-deaths-1920-2021-e1641483852495-1-1024x918-2.webp?fit=1024%2C918&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-deaths-1920-2021-e1641483852495-1-1024x918-2.webp?fit=1024%2C918&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-deaths-1920-2021-e1641483852495-1-1024x918-2.webp?fit=1024%2C918&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-deaths-1920-2021-e1641483852495-1-1024x918-2.webp?fit=1024%2C918&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":410834,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410834","url_meta":{"origin":289650,"position":1},"title":"Tell the Truth, The Guardian and NBC, High Weather Disaster Costs Aren\u2019t Due to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/29\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Multiple mainstream media outlets published stories this week uncritically publicizing the claims of a climate change interest group, Climate Central (CC). 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Here\u2019s what that looks like,\u201d which cites a recent government climate report to claim that global warming is causing an increase in costly weather disasters. This is false. Data refutes the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":280929,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280929","url_meta":{"origin":289650,"position":5},"title":"Climate Alarmism Demoted in One Chart","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe popular climate discussion \u2026 looks at man as a destructive force for climate livability \u2026 because we use fossil fuels. In fact, the truth is the exact opposite; we don\u2019t take a safe climate and make it dangerous; we take a dangerous climate and make it safe. High-energy civilization,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0371764703_862193618598976_7227497400339540244_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C1123&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0371764703_862193618598976_7227497400339540244_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C1123&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0371764703_862193618598976_7227497400339540244_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C1123&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0371764703_862193618598976_7227497400339540244_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C1123&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0371764703_862193618598976_7227497400339540244_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C1123&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=289650"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":289671,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289650\/revisions\/289671"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/289669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=289650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=289650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=289650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}