{"id":289262,"date":"2023-11-30T08:54:34","date_gmt":"2023-11-30T07:54:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289262"},"modified":"2023-11-30T08:54:36","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T07:54:36","slug":"cop28-mind-boggling-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289262","title":{"rendered":"COP28 Mind-Boggling Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Green Mirage recedes as you approach it.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Robert Lyman exposes the freakish math swirling around Dubai COP this fortnight in his Financial Post article COP28 by the (very big) numbers. <\/strong><\/a> Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This weekend\u2019s climate meeting will discuss trillions of dollars.
No one will mention its chance of success is zero.<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neuroscience tells us the human brain is very bad at interpreting large numbers.<\/strong> Most people know that million, billion and trillion are all big numbers but can\u2019t really understand what the difference<\/strong> between them is. Answer: it\u2019s big. A million seconds is 12 days. A billion seconds is 31 years. A trillion seconds is 31,688 years, which is a lot more than 12 days.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our cognitive difficulties with large numbers<\/strong> will be a problem when reading the news<\/strong> from the COP28 climate conference that convenes in Dubai on Thursday.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conference has a wide-ranging agenda. It also will be attended by a large number of people<\/strong> \u2014 over 70,000 at last count. There\u2019s the first large-number problem for COP28. How does a group of 70,000 people possibly discuss anything in a coherent way?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The organizers have identified five themes on which they would like to see agreement<\/strong> among<\/strong> the almost 190 governments that will be represented.<\/strong> When you\u2019re talking governments, 190 is yet another brain-challenging number.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To oversimplify, there are four main themes:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2666  how to accelerate<\/strong> all countries\u2019 efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions<\/strong> so as to meet a proposed 2050 \u201cnet-zero\u201d target<\/strong> (zero not being a large number);<\/em>
\u2666  how to induce wealthier countries to give much more money<\/strong> to poorer countries to help them both mitigate and adapt to climate change;<\/em>
\u2666  how to persuade all countries to phase out production of fossil fuels by 2050<\/strong>; and, finally,<\/em>
\u2666  <\/strong>how to increase the UN\u2019s role<\/strong> as central coordinator and global regulator of climate efforts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Most discussions behind closed doors will be about\u00a0money<\/strong>.\u00a0Rich countries are now paying about US$70 billion<\/strong>\u00a0in climate aid, mostly\u00a0to help finance GHG emissions reduction.<\/strong>\u00a0The\u00a0developing countries want this raised to at least US$1.4 trillion per year by 2026, 20 times higher<\/strong>. Twenty is not actually that large a number, except when talking about multiplying already very big dollar amounts by it. Developing countries have\u00a0also<\/strong>\u00a0demanded that\u00a0funding for adaptation rise to at least US$600 billion per year<\/strong>. At last year\u2019s COP27 in Egypt, they got agreement in principle for a new fund to pay for the\u00a0\u201closs and damages\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0they will incur from adverse weather events they attribute to the historic GHG emissions of the industrialized countries, though no dollar amounts were agreed to. Finally, developing countries are pushing for\u00a0a new Global Biodiversity Fund,<\/strong>\u00a0to which developed countries would donate\u00a0a mere US$20 billion per year.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Round numbers:<\/strong> rich countries would be on the hook for US$2 trillion per year<\/strong>. If allocations were based on GDP, Canada would owe three per cent<\/strong> of the total \u2014 or US$60 billion per year.<\/strong> In Canadian dollars, that\u2019s roughly 78 billion CAN$.<\/strong> There are about 16 million households in Canada so (do the math) each household would owe $4,875. Per year.<\/strong> That\u2019s a number the average person can easily understand. He or she can also understand there is absolutely no way the Canadian public or voters in any other OECD country would ever agree to such a thing.<\/strong> Not even if they didn\u2019t know (but they do) that China<\/strong>, producer of 30 per cent of the world\u2019s GHG emissions,<\/strong> not only would not<\/strong> be contributing but might well qualify as a recipient.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0previous 27 COPs<\/strong>\u00a0(for Conference of the Parties) have all\u00a0promoted ever-more ambitious emissions reductions.<\/strong>\u00a0But since the first COP\u00a0global emissions have risen 60 per cent,<\/strong>\u00a0driven by developing countries\u2019 relentless efforts to achieve more economic development for their burgeoning populations. There is no evidence that trend will change.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and others\u00a0all see fossil fuel production as key to their economic development and energy security. They are\u00a0unlikely to commit to production declines\u00a0even if a few OECD countries do.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United Nations secretariat\u00a0will lobby hard at COP28<\/strong>\u00a0to expand the role of existing institutions, including\u00a0even more climate summits<\/strong>\u00a0to place even more political pressure on leaders, and they may succeed in this (though many of us feel just one a year is already more than enough). How difficult can it be to convince tens of thousands of climate stakeholders to travel to exotic conference locales each year?\u00a0Especially if the general public cannot grasp the numbers they\u2019re playing with.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Yes, those are trillions of dollars in the projection.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This weekend\u00a0the media in general will report in glowing terms<\/strong>\u00a0on the energy and enthusiasm of conference participants, especially those representing environmental NGOs. The communiqu\u00e9 will note\u00a0every new commitment made<\/strong>\u00a0yet entirely ignore that the\u00a0probability<\/strong>\u00a0the entire process will\u00a0meet its objectives is a very, very small number not significantly different from zero.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz Robert Lyman exposes the freakish math swirling around Dubai COP this fortnight in his Financial Post article COP28 by the (very big) numbers.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images. This weekend\u2019s climate meeting will discuss trillions of dollars.No one will mention its chance of success is zero. Neuroscience tells […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":289272,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"This weekend\u2019s climate meeting will discuss trillions of dollars.\nNo one will mention its chance of success is zero.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824872,691818076,691818260,691818228,691818154,691819188],"class_list":["post-289262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-70000-delegates","tag-co2","tag-cop28","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-net-zero","tag-trillions-of-dollars","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00w1280-p16x9-2023-11-27T152934Z_249630499_RC2KJ3A7P0JR_RTRMADP_3_CLIMATE-UN-EIB-SURVEY.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1dfw","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":289321,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289321","url_meta":{"origin":289262,"position":0},"title":"COP28 pushing net-zero meat plan in Dubai","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/30\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe world\u2019s most-developed nations will be told to curb their excessive appetite for meat as part of the first comprehensive plan to bring the global agrifood industry into line with the Paris climate agreement. The global food systems\u2019 road map to 1.5C is expected to be published by the United\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"COP28 summit\"","block_context":{"text":"COP28 summit","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cop28-summit"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0CFACT-Bloomberg-Header.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0CFACT-Bloomberg-Header.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0CFACT-Bloomberg-Header.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0CFACT-Bloomberg-Header.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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