{"id":288814,"date":"2023-11-27T11:04:30","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T10:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288814"},"modified":"2023-11-27T11:04:33","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T10:04:33","slug":"unstable-models-noaa-substantially-cools-its-december-mean-temperature-forecast-for-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288814","title":{"rendered":"Unstable Models: NOAA Substantially Cools Its December Mean Temperature Forecast For Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<\/em>25. November 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\u00b0C downward correction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NOAA\u2019s latest GFS run has substantially cooled the temperature outlook for December. In its earlier projection, it saw December in Europe coming in 1 to 2\u00b0C warmer than the long-term mean:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But using the latest available intimal conditions, the NOAA has a completely new mean temperature forecast for December 2023:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The December projection for Europe as whole comes in almost 2\u00b0C COOLER. That\u2019s quite an impressive correction.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So unstable are models that attempt to look into the nea5r future of a chaotic system that they know far more little about than they like to make the public believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hat-tip:\u00a0SnowFan here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Currently the GFS foresees \u201cextreme cold wave around St. Nicholas in Central Europe,\u201d reports Snowfan<\/a>.  \u201cNow also the German DWD sees lots of snow. Analysis: With -20\u00b0C extreme frost on the Zugspitze and -27\u00b0C in NE Europe. ECMWF and GEM remain with plenty of snow in Germany at the beginning of December 2023. DWD: Snow low pressure \u201cOLIVER\u201d is on its way to Germany. ECMWF remains with early winter cold wave in Central Europe until well into December. NCEP remains with increasingly wintry cold in large parts of Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, as the NOAA longer term weather forecasting has shown, there\u2019s always a great amount of uncertainty. Anything under 5 days can be considered a forecast, and everything beyond 10 days is just weather speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From NoTricksZone By\u00a0P Gosselin\u00a0on\u00a025. November 2023 2\u00b0C downward correction Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter. The NOAA\u2019s latest GFS run has substantially cooled the temperature outlook for December. In its earlier […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":288822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The December projection for Europe as whole comes in almost 2\u00b0C COOLER. That\u2019s quite an impressive correction.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824792,691824793,691818583,691818051,691818397,691824791],"class_list":{"0":"post-288814","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-2c-cooler","9":"tag-december-projection-for-europe","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-germany","12":"tag-noaa","13":"tag-unstable-models","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0cfsv2prognosenta2meuropadezembervergleich24112023deutlichkaelter-e1700818038862.jpg?fit=1354%2C626&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1d8i","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":345737,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345737","url_meta":{"origin":288814,"position":0},"title":"Heating Season Is Starting in Earnest EARLY This Fall Across Western Europe","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The CFS expects a somewhat cool and wet October across western Europe this year. 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