{"id":288203,"date":"2023-11-20T15:58:35","date_gmt":"2023-11-20T14:58:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288203"},"modified":"2023-11-20T15:58:38","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T14:58:38","slug":"polar-bear-sea-ice-habitat-update-at-15-november-problem-bears-in-western-hudson-bay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288203","title":{"rendered":"Polar bear sea ice habitat update at 15 November &amp; problem bears in Western Hudson Bay"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"288220\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288220\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=2000%2C1455&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2000,1455\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"R\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=723%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?resize=723%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?resize=1024%2C745&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?resize=768%2C559&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?resize=1536%2C1117&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?resize=1200%2C873&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?w=2000&amp;ssl=1 2000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/\">polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abundant polar bear habitat this fall across the Arctic so far, with only Hudson Bay sea ice formation a bit behind schedule. However, Churchill has not seen the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2023\/08\/16\/conservation-officers-misleading-the-public-about-polar-bear-problems-in-churchill\/\">anticipated spike<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0<a href=\"ttps:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/manitoba\/churchill-manitoba-bears-1.6937441\">problem bear<\/a>\u00a0reports, given the vocal pronouncement by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/nov\/10\/shotguns-ai-strobe-lights-the-hunt-is-on-to-help-polar-bears-and-humans-coexist-aoe\">polar bear specialists<\/a>\u00a0that it should be experiencing more and more problems with bears when they spent more than 4 months ashore in summer and fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"511\" data-attachment-id=\"288205\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288205\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am.webp?fit=1003%2C709&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1003,709\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am.webp?fit=723%2C511&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am.webp?resize=723%2C511&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am.webp?w=1003&amp;ssl=1 1003w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am.webp?resize=300%2C212&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Wapusk-NP-2023-lone-bear-in-good-shape-2-Nov-11-am.webp?resize=768%2C543&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">News of the most egregious attack by a bear I could find world wide this fall is shown in the video below, filmed 14 November 2023: apparently, the offending bear had spent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/videos\/news\/have-you-seen\/2023\/11\/15\/watch-polar-bear-caught-on-camera-playing-with-unexpected-toy\/71590126007\/\">several days<\/a>\u00a0displaying this offending behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-TQPeDAT5gM?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Arctic overall<\/strong>&nbsp;according to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/nsidc.org\/data\/masie\">NSIDC Masie<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sea ice is forming at least as fast this year as it has for the last two years, despite dubious claims that this year was the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/environment\/this-year-virtually-certain-be-warmest-125000-years-eu-scientists-say-2023-11-08\/\">warmest in the last 125,000 years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"397\" data-attachment-id=\"288208\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288208\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?fit=1096%2C601&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1096,601\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-472\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?fit=723%2C397&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?resize=723%2C397&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?resize=1024%2C562&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?resize=300%2C165&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?resize=768%2C421&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-472.png?w=1096&amp;ssl=1 1096w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Current sea ice coverage across the Arctic looks like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"725\" data-attachment-id=\"288209\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288209\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?fit=831%2C833&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"831,833\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-473\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?fit=723%2C725&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=723%2C725&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?w=831&amp;ssl=1 831w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=768%2C770&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-473.png?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In regards to thickness, in the chart below dark blue, green, yellow and red indicate perennial ice 1-5m or more that resisted melt this summer while the purple is newly-formed ice this fall, original\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/polarportal.dk\/en\/sea-ice-and-icebergs\/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume\/\">here<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"616\" data-attachment-id=\"288211\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288211\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?fit=1090%2C928&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1090,928\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-474\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?fit=723%2C616&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?resize=723%2C616&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?resize=1024%2C872&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?resize=300%2C255&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?resize=768%2C654&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-474.png?w=1090&amp;ssl=1 1090w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hudson Bay<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year most bears came ashore by 17 June when the ice broke up, so by 15 November the bears had been onshore for 152 days or about five months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The video below was recorded 9 November\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/explore.org\/livecams\/polar-bears\/polar-bear-cam\">from a Tundra Buggy<\/a>\u00a0and published 11 November 2023, showing that at least one bear must have made a seal kill (although the kill itself was not caught on camera):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fVXEKxakC6M?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the bears have to wait another 3 weeks for enough ice to do some serious ice-based hunting, that would put them at 173 days or so without food, which is beyond their theoretic limit of endurance of 170-171 days according to the models (Molnar et al. 2020). Based on these predictions, the experts say we should see wide-spread starvation of adult males and females with cubs near Churchill&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2023\/10\/26\/churchill-so-far-has-few-problems-with-polar-bears-despite-predictions-of-a-record-bad-year\/\">if freeze-up is delayed until 7 December<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, that now looks unlikely, as the weather has turned\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/weather.gc.ca\/city\/pages\/mb-42_metric_e.html\">very cold in Churchill<\/a>\u00a0and that suggests the sea ice will start to form rather quickly over the next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"434\" data-attachment-id=\"288214\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288214\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?fit=1165%2C698&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1165,698\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-475\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?fit=723%2C434&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?resize=723%2C434&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288214\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?resize=1024%2C614&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?resize=300%2C180&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?resize=768%2C460&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-475.png?w=1165&amp;ssl=1 1165w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And as of 16 November, grey ice (dark purple) had been forming nicely along the northwest coast and in places in Southern Hudson Bay. It seems likely that bears will begin to leave by next week as the new ice (pink) thickens and expands \u2014 at most a week about a week beyond the average for the 1980s (i.e., 23 November) after having been ashore for 159 days or so. Still, five months plus one week is an impressive length of time to go without food and without causing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2023\/10\/26\/churchill-so-far-has-few-problems-with-polar-bears-despite-predictions-of-a-record-bad-year\/\">much trouble<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"458\" data-attachment-id=\"288215\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288215\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-476.png?fit=932%2C590&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"932,590\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-476\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-476.png?fit=723%2C458&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-476.png?resize=723%2C458&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288215\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-476.png?w=932&amp;ssl=1 932w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-476.png?resize=300%2C190&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-476.png?resize=768%2C486&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"464\" data-attachment-id=\"288217\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288217\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-477.png?fit=918%2C589&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"918,589\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-477\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-477.png?fit=723%2C464&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-477.png?resize=723%2C464&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-477.png?w=918&amp;ssl=1 918w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-477.png?resize=300%2C192&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-477.png?resize=768%2C493&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2022, bears were released from the Churchill jail on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2022\/11\/28\/polar-bear-specialist-calls-hudson-bay-freeze-up-late-yet-bears-were-moving-offshore-2-weeks-ago\/\">10 November<\/a>, as early as in the 1980s, because there was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2022\/11\/17\/hudson-bay-sea-ice-freeze-up-in-2022-like-the-1980s-for-the-5th-time-since-2015\/\">enough ice for them to leave<\/a>. That\u2019s an important metric that the Churchill Alert folks usually announce but not always. They seem to keep more information to themselves than they did a few years ago, including not publishing reports promptly every week as they once did, l<a href=\"https:\/\/churchill.ca\/p\/polar-bear-safety-stats\">eaving out weeks worth of reports<\/a>&nbsp;(e.g. 2022), and not bothering to publish the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/churchill.ca\/p\/polar-bear-safety-stats\">final few reports<\/a>&nbsp;of the season (e.g., 2021, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reports this year have not been updated since 23 October, so whether we\u2019ll see any more remains to be seen. If the bears had been causing havoc over the last few weeks I\u2019m sure those reports would have been produced promptly and the media alerted: it\u2019s when the bears behave themselves and fail to walk around starving that we don\u2019t hear about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Could it be that the Churchill&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2023\/08\/16\/conservation-officers-misleading-the-public-about-polar-bear-problems-in-churchill\/\">problem bear folks<\/a>&nbsp;are as invested in maintaining the preferred climate change narrative as activist polar bear specialists and avoid publishing reports that look like good news?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2021, freeze-up came a couple weeks later,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2021\/11\/26\/sea-ice-cometh-to-hudson-bay-freeze-up-has-begun\/\">around 26 November<\/a>, but as noted above, no&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/churchill.ca\/p\/polar-bear-safety-stats\">problem bear reports&nbsp;<\/a>were issued after 24 October that year. Within a 2-3 day lee-way,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2023\/01\/12\/recent-paper-on-w-hudson-bay-polar-bears-includes-new-official-sea-ice-freeze-up-data\/\">freeze-up was as early in 2020<\/a>&nbsp;as some of the earliest years on record (i.e., about 4-7 November, with 1993 the earliest); freeze-up dates in 2017, 2018, and 2019 were about the same as the average in the 1980s or 16 November (de la Guardia et al. 2017; Miller et al. 2022). Significantly Miller and colleagues found&nbsp;<em>no trend in freeze-up dates<\/em>&nbsp;in their analysis of freeze-up dates to 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This means WH sea ice coverage in the fall has not been \u201csteadily declining\u201d over the last 30 years and polar bear have not been departing for the ice later and later in the season over that period, as many falsely state or imply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember that fall is the second-most important feeding season for polar bears, due to the fact that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2020\/11\/11\/shorefast-ice-formation-and-the-fall-feeding-season-for-polar-bears\/\">seals are strongly attracted to newly-forming sea ice<\/a>. It\u2019s the bears\u2019 chance to regain some or all of the weight lost over the summer, before the long winter fast begins (while bears indeed hunt when they can while they\u2019re on the ice, they are not often successful during the depths of the Arctic winter and most bears are at their lowest weight by March).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year a l<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=f6jPrNXmnGA\">itter of triplet cubs<\/a>\u00a0was spotted by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/explore.org\/livecams\/polar-bears\/polar-bear-cam\">Explore.org webcams<\/a>\u00a0and on 9 November, the family interacted with three other bears near Tundra Buggies full of tourists:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/aYYHhm4En6s?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017.<\/strong>&nbsp;Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective.&nbsp;<em>Marine Ecology Progress Series<\/em>&nbsp;564: 225\u2013233.&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.int-res.com\/abstracts\/meps\/v564\/p225-233\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">http:\/\/www.int-res.com\/abstracts\/meps\/v564\/p225-233\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Miller, E.N., Lunn, N.J., McGeachy, D., and Derocher, A.E. 2022.<\/strong>&nbsp;Autumn migration phenology of polar bears (<em>Ursus maritimus<\/em>) in Hudson Bay, Canada.&nbsp;<em>Polar Biology<\/em>&nbsp;45:1023-1034.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00300-022-03050-3\">https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00300-022-03050-3<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Moln\u00e1r, P.K., Bitz, C.M., Holland, M.M., Kay, J.E., Penk, S.R. and Amstrup, S.C. 2020.<\/strong>&nbsp;Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence.&nbsp;<em>Nature Climate Change<\/em>&nbsp;10:732-738.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-020-0818-9\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-020-0818-9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From polarbearscience Abundant polar bear habitat this fall across the Arctic so far, with only Hudson Bay sea ice formation a bit behind schedule. However, Churchill has not seen the\u00a0anticipated spike\u00a0in\u00a0problem bear\u00a0reports, given the vocal pronouncement by\u00a0polar bear specialists\u00a0that it should be experiencing more and more problems with bears when they spent more than 4 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":288220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Abundant polar bear habitat this fall across the Arctic so far, with only Hudson Bay sea ice formation a bit behind schedule. However, Churchill has not seen the\u00a0anticipated spike\u00a0in\u00a0problem bear\u00a0reports, given the vocal pronouncement by\u00a0polar bear specia","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821887,691818250,691818745,691818895],"class_list":{"0":"post-288203","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-churchill","9":"tag-hudson-bay","10":"tag-polar-bear","11":"tag-sea-ice","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=2000%2C1455&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1cYr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":212095,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=212095","url_meta":{"origin":288203,"position":0},"title":"Hudson Bay sea ice update: many polar bears are still on low concentration ice offshore","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Almost half of all tagged Western Hudson polar bears are still out on the ice of Hudson Bay, even though much of it is broken up in pieces: as of yesterday, 10 out of 22 bears were still offshore. Mother and cub near Churchill last year, 30 October 2021. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-144.png?fit=780%2C574&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-144.png?fit=780%2C574&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-144.png?fit=780%2C574&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-144.png?fit=780%2C574&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":228485,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228485","url_meta":{"origin":288203,"position":1},"title":"Polar bear habitat update: ice forming along Hudson Bay, Wrangel &#038; Franz Josef Islands surrounded","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Freeze-up this year has been a bit slower than 2020, which was\u00a0as early as the earliest freeze-ups in the 1980s, but not by much.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290645","url_meta":{"origin":288203,"position":2},"title":"Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn\u2019t their worst summer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called\u00a0\u2018hottest year\u2019 on record: in\u00a0April,\u00a0July,\u00a0August,\u00a0November, and\u00a0December.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":224607,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=224607","url_meta":{"origin":288203,"position":3},"title":"Western Hudson Bay polar bears waiting for the sea ice to freeze as tourists flock to watch","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Should only be a few weeks more until the ice forms along the western shore of Hudson Bay, it\u2019s already been snowing.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":227591,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=227591","url_meta":{"origin":288203,"position":4},"title":"Polar bear triplet litter spotted near Churchill as ice starts to form along west coast of Hudson Bay","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Polar bears, including a litter of triplet cubs (a sign of\u00a0very good health), are gathering near Churchill, Manitoba where new ice is forming along the coast. This means the fall seal hunt will soon begin, depending on the winds (it might be a few days from now or a few\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-209.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-209.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-209.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-209.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-209.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":235109,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=235109","url_meta":{"origin":288203,"position":5},"title":"More BBC Polar Bear Lies Exposed","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019ve a couple of points to add to Susan Crockford\u2019s earlier excellent take down of that BBC article:","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0image_thumb1.png?fit=719%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0image_thumb1.png?fit=719%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0image_thumb1.png?fit=719%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0image_thumb1.png?fit=719%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=288203"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288203\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":288222,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288203\/revisions\/288222"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/288220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=288203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=288203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=288203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}