{"id":288101,"date":"2023-11-19T16:28:45","date_gmt":"2023-11-19T15:28:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288101"},"modified":"2023-11-19T16:28:48","modified_gmt":"2023-11-19T15:28:48","slug":"walrus-and-polar-bear-population-size-changes-in-the-n-atlantic-over-the-last-20k-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288101","title":{"rendered":"Walrus and polar bear population size changes in the N. Atlantic over the last 20k years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"288112\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288112\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?fit=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,1024\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-452\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>From <a href=\"http:\/\/polarbearscience\">polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a lesson in how to assess the potential worth of scientific papers. One of two similar Arctic evolution studies got media attention, at least&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/10080873\/polar-bears-climate-change-melts-arctic-ice\/\">in Canada<\/a>&nbsp;\u2014 about the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vicnews.com\/world-news\/science-peers-back-centuries-to-map-possible-future-for-polar-bears-7103726\">polar bears<\/a>, of course \u2014 but in my opinion the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lunduniversity.lu.se\/article\/atlantic-walrus-more-vulnerable-ever-arctic-warming\">walrus research conclusions<\/a>&nbsp;are much better supported, less biased by climate change rhetoric, and lack the hubris present in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/news-releases\/1007456\">polar bear paper<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"288104\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288104\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-449.png?fit=960%2C640&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"960,640\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-449\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-449.png?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-449.png?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288104\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-449.png?w=960&amp;ssl=1 960w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-449.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-449.png?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both studies use similar sample sizes for the regions they had in common (North Atlantic) and used computer models to determine genetic diversity and population size changes since the LGM. However, the tone of the walrus paper was less emotionally-charged and the caveats of the work were appropriately stated. In my opinion, papers like the polar bear example contribute to eroding the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2023\/11\/14\/gulf-stream-collapse-scare-debunked-by-royal-society\/\">public\u2019s trust in science<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"288105\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288105\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?fit=960%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"960,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-450\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288105\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?w=960&amp;ssl=1 960w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=800%2C600&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-450.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The last Ice Age peaked between about 27,000 and 19,000 years ago. At this time the Arctic was buried under kilometers of glacial ice sheets, and so marine mammals were pushed southwards to areas of ice floes and more open water. Walrus survived in some areas of the Atlantic\u00a0located further to the south, and as soon as climates warmed again, the ice edge retreated and walrus populations pushed quickly northwards again. This combination of warming and climate-driven dispersal led to local walrus populations becoming more genetically differentiated<\/em>. Walrus study, Lund University\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lunduniversity.lu.se\/article\/atlantic-walrus-more-vulnerable-ever-arctic-warming\">press release<\/a>\u00a027 September 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The walrus paper<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Emily Ruiz-Puerta and 17 other authors, called&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2023\/09\/230927155413.htm\">\u201cHolocence deglaciation drove rapid genetic diversification of Atlantic walrus.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the introduction, cites the IPCC and several other papers to support a statement that the Arctic is warming faster than other regions and is predicted to lead to future ecological changes without hyperbole<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shows sea ice changes over the last 30k years, with&nbsp;<strong>illustrative figures and references<\/strong>&nbsp;based on a variety of proxy datasets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Uses both&nbsp;<strong>historic-era and fossil samples<\/strong>&nbsp;up to about 8.5k years old to discern past genetic profiles<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>State outright that historic reductions in population numbers by humans<\/strong>&nbsp;may have impacted their interpretation of past population size changes due to climate change (e.g. Crockford 2023a)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>State outright that their proposed \u201cLast Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia\u201d in NW Greenland around Kane Basin may not be well supported (i.e., that it may not have been ice-free and available habitat 20k years ago)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conclude that walrus populations have been divided into several fairly isolated populations over the last 8-10k years, which may make them vulnerable to future localized threats; while this seems to be a fairly well-supported conclusion, the authors admit further research is required<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<em>Determining the full effect of historic and recent exploitation and climatic warm periods on walrus genetic diversity may require larger sample sizes and the addition of nuclear genome data from both ancient, historic and contemporary populations<\/em>\u201d [Ruiz-Puerta et al. 2023: 8]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"388\" data-attachment-id=\"288108\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288108\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?fit=1540%2C825&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1540,825\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?fit=723%2C388&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?resize=723%2C388&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288108\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?resize=1024%2C549&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?resize=300%2C161&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?resize=768%2C411&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?resize=1536%2C823&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?resize=1200%2C643&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?w=1540&amp;ssl=1 1540w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Ruiz-Puerta-EJ-et-al.-2023-Fig-sea-ice-map-1.webp?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The polar bear paper<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Michael Westbury and 19 other authors, called&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/news-releases\/1007456\">\u201cImpact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator.\u201d&nbsp;<\/a>[they mean polar bears: why don\u2019t they just say so?]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the introduction, cites several articles promoting an unverified \u2018tipping point\u2019 concept to support statements that a warming Arctic is headed for \u201cirreversible ecosystem change\u201d and that the polar bear is a \u201csentinel species for detecting ecosystem tipping points\u201d (Crockford 2022a)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Uses&nbsp;<strong>only modern and late historic-era samples<\/strong>&nbsp;(1936-2019) to characterize genetic data over 11k years<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Uses&nbsp;<strong>only sea surface temperature<\/strong>&nbsp;data to infer past sea ice extent over 20k years of polar bear evolutionary history; no other proxy data cited and no illustration is provided (cf. Crockford 2023b; Ruiz-Puerta et al. 2023)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Uses inferences about \u201cpreferred habitat\u201d of polar bears (e.g. citing Amstrup et al 2008, and Durner et al. 2009, which were used to support the original listing of polar bears on the US Endangered Species List) that have since been exposed as a failed concept (Crockford 2017, 2019)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Makes&nbsp;<strong>dubious inference that sea ice extent at the LGM (ca. 20k years ago) represented optimal polar bear habitat<\/strong>&nbsp;(i.e., that \u2018more is better),\u2019 apparently failing to account for the fact that virtually all current polar bear habitat was covered in perennial sea ice&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2015\/04\/21\/polar-bears-barely-survived-the-sea-ice-habitat-changes-of-the-last-ice-age-evidence-suggests\/\">too thick to support mammalian life<\/a>&nbsp;(cf. Crockford 2022b, 2023b; Ruiz-Puerta et al. 2023)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cites only Miller et al. 2012 and Cahill et al. 2013 as previous genetic studies on polar bear evolution, leaving out other recent papers that are potentially relevant (summarized in Crockford 2023b)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is no mention of the well-documented but seldom mentioned&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2012\/09\/20\/the-slaughter-of-polar-bears-that-rarely-gets-mentioned-ca-1890-1930\/\">slaughter of polar bears<\/a>&nbsp;in the late 1800s-early 1900s&nbsp;<\/strong>and the follow-up overhunting from 1945-1970 that led to the species requiring international protection (1973): therefore, there is no discussion of what impact these events would have had on long term genetic signals of increasing\/decreasing population sizes the authors are trying to interpret,&nbsp;<strong>especially given they used no prehistoric-era samples<\/strong>&nbsp;(Crockford 2019, 2023b; Honderich 1991; cf. Ruiz-Puerta et al. 2023)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conclude that ancient polar bears populations around Greenland declined in step with sea ice declines over the last 11k years (despite the above caveats) and that this strengthens predictions future sea ice declines pose a serious threat to long-term polar bear survival. However, I am unconvinced their evidence warrants such a confident conclusion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<em>Although our paleoclimate data and habitat suitability reconstruction extend across the Holocene only, the initial rapid decline in Ne [i.e., effective population size] observed in west Greenland bears of ~19 ka may signal the\u00a0<strong>end of the Last Glacial Maximum in the region, a period of massive sea ice loss and increasing temperatures<\/strong>. An association between Ne and changes in environment is further evidenced when comparing our genomic demographic reconstructions with paleoclimate and suitable habitat over the past 11,000 years (Fig. 4). Overall, we observe a clear pattern of Ne decline when suitable habitat decreased, which was associated with periods of warmer SST and reduced sea ice cover.<\/em>\u201d [Westbury et al. 2023: 5]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"351\" data-attachment-id=\"288110\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=288110\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-451.png?fit=748%2C363&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"748,363\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-451\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-451.png?fit=723%2C351&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-451.png?resize=723%2C351&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-451.png?w=748&amp;ssl=1 748w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-451.png?resize=300%2C146&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Model-generated population size decline from ~20k years ago that seems to assume, without evidence, that LGM sea ice habitats in the North Atlantic were optimal for polar bears (blue is East Greenland, orange is West Greenland). Westbury et al. 2023, Fig. 1D.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Crockford, S.J. 2019<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened<\/em>. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Polar-Bear-Catastrophe-Never-Happened\/dp\/0993119085\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">paperback<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Polar-Bear-Catastrophe-Never-Happened-ebook\/dp\/B07PT7SCZ8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ebook<\/a>&nbsp;formats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Crockford, S.J. 2022a.<\/strong><em>&nbsp;Sir David Attenborough and the Walrus Deception<\/em>.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0991796691\">Amazon Digital Services, Victoria<\/a>.<strong>Crockford, S.J. 2022b.<\/strong>&nbsp;Polar bear fossil and archaeological records from the Pleistocene and Holocene in relation to sea ice extent and open water polynyas.&nbsp;<em>Open Quaternary<\/em>&nbsp;8(1):7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Crockford, S.J. 2023a.<\/strong>&nbsp;The Polar Wildlife Report. Global Warming Policy Foundation Briefing 63, London. pdf&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Crockford-Polar-Wildlife-2022-FINAL-Briefing-paper-63.pdf\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Crockford, S.J. 2023b.<\/strong>&nbsp;<em>Polar Bear Evolution: A Model for How New Species Arise<\/em>. Amazon Digital Services, Victoria. &nbsp;Available in hardcover, paperback and ebook formats&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/1778038328\">https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/1778038328<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.co.uk\/dp\/1778038328\">https:\/\/www.amazon.co.uk\/dp\/1778038328<\/a>&nbsp;[<strong>On Sale!&nbsp;<\/strong>8 November to 6 December 2023 only]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Honderich, J.E. 1991.<\/strong>&nbsp;Wildlife as a hazardous resource: an analysis of the historical interaction of humans and polar bears in the Canadian arctic. MA thesis, University of Waterloo, Ontario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ruiz-Puerta, E.J., Keighley, X., Desjardins, S.P.A., and 15 other authors. 2023.&nbsp;<\/strong>Holocence deglaciation drove rapid genetic diversification of Atlantic walrus.&nbsp;<em>Proceedings of the Royal Society B&nbsp;<\/em>290: 20231349.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1349\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rspb.2023.1349<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Westbury, M.V., Brown, S.C., Lorenzen, J. and 17 other authors. 2023.<\/strong>&nbsp;Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator.&nbsp;<em>Science Advances<\/em>&nbsp;9(45): eadf3326.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adf3326\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adf3326<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From polarbearscience This is a lesson in how to assess the potential worth of scientific papers. One of two similar Arctic evolution studies got media attention, at least&nbsp;in Canada&nbsp;\u2014 about the&nbsp;polar bears, of course \u2014 but in my opinion the&nbsp;walrus research conclusions&nbsp;are much better supported, less biased by climate change rhetoric, and lack the hubris [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":288112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"This is a lesson in how to assess the potential worth of scientific papers. One of two similar Arctic evolution studies got media attention, at least in Canada \u2014 about the polar bears, of course \u2014 but in my opinion the walrus research conclusions are much","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824637,691819823,691818895,691824638,691824640,691824639],"class_list":{"0":"post-288101","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic-evolution","9":"tag-last-glacial-maximum","10":"tag-sea-ice","11":"tag-the-last-ice-age","12":"tag-the-polar-bear-paper","13":"tag-the-walrus-paper","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-452.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1cWN","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":253378,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253378","url_meta":{"origin":288101,"position":0},"title":"Russian walrus and polar bears continue to thrive US researchers tell the Washington Post","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Interviews with US researchers for a piece in the\u00a0Washington Post earlier today\u00a0contain revelations that walrus and polar bear populations in the Russian Far East continue to thrive, despite insisting that polar bears face a dire future without human interference.","rel":"","context":"In \"Alaska\"","block_context":{"text":"Alaska","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alaska"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0polar-bears-alaska.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0polar-bears-alaska.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0polar-bears-alaska.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0polar-bears-alaska.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0polar-bears-alaska.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":423920,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423920","url_meta":{"origin":288101,"position":1},"title":"Barents Sea polar bears thriving despite massive loss of sea ice, study\u00a0confirms","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/30\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recently published study lead by Norwegian polar bear specialist Jon Aars found that both male and female polar bears were fatter and healthier after 1995 despite the greatest loss of sea ice of any Arctic region. However, no evidence was provided that a greater consumption of walrus and reindeer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic region\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic region","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-region"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_08.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_08.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_08.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_08.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":209932,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=209932","url_meta":{"origin":288101,"position":2},"title":"Thick sea ice in the Western Arctic is not good habitat for polar bears, seals, or walrus","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/23\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A few weeks into the Arctic summer (July-September), sea ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas is dominated by thick, multi-year ice. At this time of year, multi-year ice is an important refuge habitat for many polar bears when seasonal ice melts out. However, it provides few opportunities for hunting\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-289.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-289.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-289.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-289.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-289.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417814,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417814","url_meta":{"origin":288101,"position":3},"title":"Sea ice conditions continued to favour Arctic marine life in\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/19\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Increased primary productivity\u00a0in the Arctic generated by reduced summer sea ice has continued into 2025, according to NOAA\u2019s annual\u00a0Arctic Report Card\u00a0published yesterday, which means Arctic seals and whales, walrus, and polar bears will continue to flourish.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254176,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254176","url_meta":{"origin":288101,"position":4},"title":"Earth Day sea ice habitat during critical spring season for Arctic seals, polar bears, and walrus","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/22\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the most important time of year for Arctic marine mammals that spend time above the ice: birthing,\u00a0breeding, and\u00a0feeding. And there is plenty of the right kind of ice available for those activities this year, as there was\u00a0two years ago\u00a0at the same time.","rel":"","context":"In \"Barents Sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Barents Sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=barents-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":424553,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424553","url_meta":{"origin":288101,"position":5},"title":"Polar Bear Numbers Rising and Health Improving in Areas with the Most Rapid Sea Ice Decline","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The study of a scientific paper titled \"Body condition among Svalbard Polar bears Ursus maritimus during a period of rapid loss of sea ice,\" published in Scientific Reports on January 29, 2026 explains Svalbard bears are resilient due to local factors: increased abundance of alternative prey like harbour seals, reindeer,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Barents Sea (BS)\"","block_context":{"text":"Barents Sea (BS)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=barents-sea-bs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIG4-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIG4-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIG4-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIG4-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=288101"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288101\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":288114,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288101\/revisions\/288114"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/288112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=288101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=288101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=288101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}