{"id":287734,"date":"2023-11-12T20:58:54","date_gmt":"2023-11-12T19:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287734"},"modified":"2023-11-12T20:58:57","modified_gmt":"2023-11-12T19:58:57","slug":"just-believe-and-drought-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287734","title":{"rendered":"Just Believe and Drought Not"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Pasadena<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014 10 November 2023<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

If you read a newspaper or watch or listen to TV or radio news, you have heard that the drought in the State of California is one or more of the following:   finally ended; maybe ended; only seemingly ended; not ended at all.  Worse than the confusion these apparently conflicting statements represent is the fact they are all true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I could write you a thousand words supporting each of the scenarios complete with references and images from the various drought monitoring agencies and departments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I explained the reasons for this confusing situation earlier in the year in a post titled Doubts About Droughts<\/a><\/em> .   According to Drought.gov \u201cin the early 1980s researchers found more than 150<\/strong> published definitions of drought, reflecting differences in regions, needs, and approaches.\u201d  In short, there is no single referenceable metric by which to determine if an area, such as the State of California, is in a drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the last\u00a0water year<\/a>, California received a great deal of precipitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The rain and snow came not only from the atmospheric rivers in the above graphic, but from a rare tropical storm that came up through the Gulf of California \u2014 Hurricane Hilary<\/a> \u2013 which dropped inches of rain on the deserts of Southern California and Arizona\/Nevada.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much precipitation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, 141%<\/strong> of the historical average for rain, and 237%<\/strong> of the historical average for snowpack.  That\u2019s a great deal of extra water for a state that is generally dry.  Generally dry, you ask?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following image shows the\u00a0K\u00f6ppen climate types<\/a>\u00a0found in California.\u00a0 All of California consists of types described as\u00a0dry, hot, desert, semi-arid, or Mediterranean<\/em><\/strong>, with the exception of the High Sierra, which are \u201cdry-summer subarctic and tundra\u201d.\u00a0 California\u2019s very long-term climate is dry and warm-to-hot.\u00a0 It is natively dry.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On a personal note:  I have recently returned from a trip to southern Italy, Greece, Crete, Rhodes, Cyprus, and Turkey \u2013 and they have Mediterranean climates and they are dry and dusty but with a two-month rainy season.  Physically, they look very much like the rolling hills of Southern Californian deserts, complete with broad arroyos<\/a> that flood when it rains.  Scrub brush and cactus grow there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The K\u00f6ppen types tell us that California does not need a drought<\/em> to be dry.  It has been dry for a very longtime.  And, it is expected, climatologically, to stay dry.  If California suddenly switched to the climate of the U.S.  corn belt<\/a>, which is K\u00f6ppen type Dfa<\/em> \u2014 D (Continental) f (No dry season) a (Hot summer) \u2013 that<\/em> would be climate change.  But hot\/warm and dry is normal and is not a change at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why all the fuss when California is dry for a year or two or three?  Why cry \u201cendless drought in California\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHalf of all fruits and vegetables<\/a> grown in the U.S. come from California, and the state effectively produces all (at least 99 percent) of America\u2019s almonds, pistachios, pomegranates, and walnuts. California is also the nation\u2019s leading grower of lima beans, lemons, kumquats, raspberries, strawberries, and spinach\u2026\u201d  <\/em>[ source<\/a> ]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California is the most populous state with over 39 million people <\/em>making their home there.  The Greater Los Angeles\/San Diego Megalopolis, alternately the Southern California Megaregion<\/a><\/em>, alone has 23.76 million residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture and people consume a lot of water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the K\u00f6ppen map above you can see a horizontal line that goes right across the state, right up near the top of the image.  That line is made up of three county northern borders but can be considered the line separating Southern California from the rest of the state (opinions vary\u2026).   What climate type prevails in Southern California with its approximately 24 million people?   The red and pink areas ( BWh and BWk) are  outright deserts. Brownish and tan areas are \u201carid\u201d which means dry (BSh and BSk).    The remaining two, yellow and greenish-yellow,  Csa and Csb, are mediterranean climates which typically have dry summers and wet winters, with summer conditions ranging from warm to hot and winter conditions typically being mild to cool. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As seen from space:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The greenish coastal hills are brush covered and dry most of the year.  There are pine forests in the higher elevations in the mountains around the Los Angeles Basin but these forests are hot and dry during the summer too.   That encouraging looking great big lake, center bottom, is the Salton Sea \u2013 salt water like the Dead Sea in the Middle East.  But the green areas extending to the north and south of the Salton Sea are the Imperial Valley, an important agricultural area for irrigated crops (using water from the Colorado River).  The rest is, as it appears, a great big desert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California has reservoirs for two reasons:\u00a0 1) To store rainy season water for the rest of the year \u2013 for drinking and agriculture and 2) \u00a0As flood control infrastructure.\u00a0\u00a0 Here\u2019s the current (as of 9 November 2023) conditions of the state\u2019s major reservoirs:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The good news is that most reservoirs are above historical averages \u2013 which only means that they have not been drawn down by the demands of this past summer.   Of course, they mustn\u2019t be kept too full, as the rainy season is coming and an overfull and overflowing reservoir is worse than an almost empty reservoir. [see here<\/a> and related Oroville Dam stories from Spring 2017 \u2013 and the disaster in Libya in<\/a> <\/a>September<\/a>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And finally, pay almost no attention to mass media and governmental sources showing images from Drought.gov:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of the mass media have been touting the one labelled \u201cU.S. Drought monitor: California\u201d (lower left) which shows no drought, just a little \u201cabnormally dry\u201d.   But the Long-term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (top left) shows much of the state wet and maybe too wet. The Short-term Multi-Indicator Drought Index is a mixed bag. And the 1-week change map shows no change.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take your pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing we can be sure of is that California is better off to have had the rain and the snow.  But can we say that \u201cThe Drought\u201d is over?  Not exactly clear, is it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment<\/u>:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I grew up in Los Angeles and am familiar with the climate there.  My brothers and I sailed Tom Sawyer-style rafts on the lake where our local park was usually found \u2014 a lake that formed when the heavy winter rains came.   When those rains came, sometimes houses would slide down the slopes into the canyons, arroyos would flood and wash out roads and highways, and the drainage ditches \u2013 designed to carry away the flood waters \u2014  would fill and the water would flow into the sea.  Almost every year. One year a bunch of us \u201chippies\u201d from UCSB went down to Carpenteria<\/a> to fight the flooding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rest of the year was hot and dry \u2013 every year the brush on the hills somewhere above Hollywood and Malibu would burn and fill the air with smoke, adding to the smog. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are still curious, go to the WestSide Drought Tracker<\/a> and use the selection list on the left to cycle through all the many maps showing differing views of various drought metrics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a mediterranean climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Watts Up With That? Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014 10 November 2023 If you read a newspaper or watch or listen to TV or radio news, you have heard that the drought in the State of California is one or more of the following:   finally ended; maybe ended; only seemingly ended; not ended […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":287747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"If you read a newspaper or watch or listen to TV or radio news, you have heard that the drought in the State of California is one or more of the following:\u00a0 \u00a0finally ended; maybe ended; only seemingly ended; not ended at all.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819348,691821996,691823017],"class_list":{"0":"post-287734","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-drought","9":"tag-hurricane-hilary","10":"tag-state-of-california","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0fb0f0042f11d88faabfb426de8c10739.jpeg?fit=2560%2C1400&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1cQS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":285594,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285594","url_meta":{"origin":287734,"position":0},"title":"Permanent California Drought Update","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/29\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"One year ago, 99.77% of California was under drought conditions. Today, California is 100% drought free - and we\u2019re entering into the rainiest part of the year. https:\/\/twitter.com\/bclund\/status\/1717883757540323616?s=20 From Watts Up With That? A year ago Yesterday https:\/\/www.drought.gov\/states\/california 0% of California in drought. 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Boulder, Colorado has had fifty-eight snowfalls over 12 inches since 1894. 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Too Dry? Blame It On Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate change, as\u00a0defined\u00a0by the United Nations:\u00a0\u201cRefers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle.\u201d That\u2019s actually a good definition.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/002weather_comp01-superJumbo-v3.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/287734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=287734"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/287734\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":287749,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/287734\/revisions\/287749"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/287747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=287734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=287734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=287734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}