{"id":287011,"date":"2023-11-07T14:58:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T13:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287011"},"modified":"2023-11-07T14:58:03","modified_gmt":"2023-11-07T13:58:03","slug":"dr-jim-advises-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287011","title":{"rendered":"Dr. Jim Advises Panic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Fear, Gloom, and Panic, Oh My! Panic Sells, Calm Saves.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I see that my favorite serially failed climate doomcaster, Dr. James Hansen, is at it again. Accompanied by his usual Greek chorus of co-sycophants, he\u2019s written a new paper entitled Global warming in the pipeline<\/strong><\/a>, <\/strong>by James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S Nazarenko, Isabelle Sangha, Pushker Kharecha, James C Zachos, Karina von Schuckmann, Norman G Loeb, Matthew B Osman, Qinjian Jin, George Tselioudis, Eunbi Jeong, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Gary Russell, Junji Cao, and Jing Li.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The press release <\/a>quotes Hansen as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cWe would be damned fools and bad scientists if we didn\u2019t expect an acceleration of global warming,\u201d Hansen said. \u201cWe are beginning to suffer the effect of our Faustian bargain. That is why the rate of global warming is accelerating.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And of course, the press release contains the requisite global warming scare photo complete with a bleached skull in the lower right \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In the underlying paper, Hansen et al. ad infinitum warn us very seriously of a \u201cpredicted post-2010 accelerated warming rate\u201d<\/em>. And how do they know these things?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Models. Yeah, big surprise, I know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hmmm, sez I \u2026 so I figured I should take a look at the changes in the rate of temperature increase over the last 170 years. To do that, I started by looking at the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset. Then I thought\u00a0\u201cWell, somebody\u2019s sure to claim I should have used the HadCRUT dataset\u201d<\/em>, so I threw that in for good measure. Here are the 50-year trailing accelerations for those two surface air temperature datasets. By \u201c50-year trailing accelerations\u201d, I mean the calculated acceleration (or deceleration) for the 50 years preceding a given date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figure 1. 50-year trailing acceleration, Berkeley Earth and HadCRUT global mean temperature datasets.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, at different times, there has been both acceleration and deceleration in the rate of temperature change over the last 170 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of particular interest, and in total contradiction to James Hansen\u2019s claim of a \u201cpredicted post-2010 accelerated warming rate\u201d<\/em>, since about 1990 or so the 50-year trailing acceleration has been decreasing. The rate of warming was actually decelerating starting, ironically, around 2010. And at present, acceleration over the final half-century of the record is approximately zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Go figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mentions in their paper:<\/p>\n\n\n\n