{"id":286272,"date":"2023-11-03T10:48:38","date_gmt":"2023-11-03T09:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286272"},"modified":"2023-11-03T10:48:42","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T09:48:42","slug":"hurricane-otis-cat-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286272","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Otis\u2013Cat 5?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, Hurricane Otis rapidly developed across the eastern Pacific before\u00a0making landfall near Acapulco in southern Mexico<\/a>\u00a0as a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at about 165mph.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Otis has made landfall on the coast of southern Mexico, bringing wind speeds of up to 165mph (270km\/h).<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It touched down near the popular Acapulco resort just after midnight on Wednesday (06:25 GMT), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Authorities have warned of a life-threatening storm surge and the possibility of landslides as heavy rain pelts the area.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The storm has already begun to weaken as it moves inland.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-latin-america-67213103<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otis is supposedly the strongest landfalling Eastern Pacific hurricane on record. But not for the first time, there is strong evidence that the wind speeds have been grossly overestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The official estimate of 145 Kts (166 mph) is not an actual measurement, but the \u201cwarning intensity\u201d, in other words simply a forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
http:\/\/rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu\/tc_realtime\/storm.asp?storm_identifier=ep182023<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2023\/ep18\/ep182023.update.10250458.shtml?<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But according to the Digital Dvorak data from satellites, the warning intensity, was about 20 Kts higher than the actual data indicated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
http:\/\/rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu\/tc_realtime\/storm_experimental.asp?storm_identifier=ep182023<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the satellites suggested sustained wind speeds of about 140 mph, which means it was on;y a Cat 4 hurricane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor was there any evidence on the ground of 165 mph winds, even where the eye of the storm passed through:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hurricane_Otis<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ventusky also suggest sustained winds of about 80 mph at ground level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There always seems to be a tendency for hurricane forecasters to overestimate winds, either because they are afraid of underestimating them or for political reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the case of Otis, this embarrassment factor was made worse by the fact that the NHC had only forecast a weak hurricane up until the last few hours before landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cat 4 storms are of course still catastrophic, but the public have the right to the correct data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On Wednesday, Hurricane Otis rapidly developed across the eastern Pacific before\u00a0making landfall near Acapulco in southern Mexico\u00a0as a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at about 165mph. From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By Paul Homewood Hurricane Otis has made landfall on the coast of southern Mexico, bringing wind speeds of up […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":286286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On Wednesday, Hurricane Otis rapidly developed across the eastern Pacific before\u00a0making landfall near Acapulco in southern Mexico\u00a0as a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at about 165mph.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824220,691824219,691824217,691824218,691824216],"class_list":{"0":"post-286272","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-acapulco-resort","9":"tag-cat-4-storms","10":"tag-hurricane-otis","11":"tag-ventusky","12":"tag-warning-intensity","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0-Hurricane-Otis.webp?fit=1500%2C945&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1cti","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":346415,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346415","url_meta":{"origin":286272,"position":0},"title":"Hurricane intensification (like Milton) HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2 (a repost)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricane intensification has nothing to do with CO2 climate change.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286223,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286223","url_meta":{"origin":286272,"position":1},"title":"NCAR Study: Otis Rapid Hurricane Intensification was Not Driven by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a breath of fresh air in explaining rapid intensification of hurricanes, without playing the climate blame-game. From the paper:\u00a0\u2018Forecasting these \u201crapid intensification\u201d events is a challenge, in part because we do not fully understand the science behind rapid intensification.\u2018\u2013 Anthony From Watts Up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"atmospheric models\"","block_context":{"text":"atmospheric models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412350,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412350","url_meta":{"origin":286272,"position":2},"title":"Wrong, Detroit Free Press, Hurricane Melissa Wasn\u2019t Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a Detroit Free Press (FP) opinion piece, \u201cClimate change denial can\u2019t stand up to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa,\u201d meteorologist Paul Gross claims that Hurricane Melissa proves climate change is making hurricanes stronger, faster, and more destructive. This is false. Hurricanes are weather, not climate. A single storm\u2014or even a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420977","url_meta":{"origin":286272,"position":3},"title":"Atlantic Hurricane Season\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"By far the most complete and robust data we have for hurricanes is for those which have hit the US coast. 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Attribution studies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Attribution studies\"","block_context":{"text":"Attribution studies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=attribution-studies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=286272"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286272\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":286288,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286272\/revisions\/286288"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/286286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=286272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=286272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=286272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}