{"id":286223,"date":"2023-11-02T20:08:22","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T19:08:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286223"},"modified":"2023-11-02T20:08:26","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T19:08:26","slug":"ncar-study-otis-rapid-hurricane-intensification-was-not-driven-by-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286223","title":{"rendered":"NCAR Study: Otis Rapid Hurricane Intensification was Not Driven by Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a breath of fresh air in explaining rapid intensification of hurricanes, without playing the climate blame-game. From the paper:\u00a0\u2018Forecasting these \u201crapid intensification\u201d events is a challenge, in part because we do not fully understand the science behind rapid intensification.<\/em>\u2018<\/strong>\u2013 Anthony<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SCIENTISTS FIND TWO WAYS THAT HURRICANES RAPIDLY INTENSIFY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New study may help forecasters better predict dangerous storms<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes that rapidly intensify for mysterious reasons pose a particularly frightening threat to those in harm\u2019s way. Forecasters have struggled for many years to understand why a seemingly commonplace tropical depression or tropical storm sometimes blows up into a major hurricane, packing catastrophic winds and driving a potentially deadly surge of water toward shore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now scientists have shed some light on why this forecasting challenge has been so difficult to overcome: there\u2019s more than one mechanism that causes rapid intensification. New research by scientists at the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) uses the latest computer modeling techniques to identify two entirely different modes of rapid intensification. The findings may lead to better understanding and prediction of these dangerous events. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTrying to find the holy grail behind rapid intensification is the wrong approach because there isn\u2019t just one holy grail,\u201d said NCAR scientist Falko Judt, lead author of the new study. \u201cThere are at least two different modes or flavors of rapid intensification, and each one has a different set of conditions that must be met in order for the storm to strengthen so quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the modes discussed by Judt and his co-authors occurs when a hurricane intensifies symmetrically, fueled by favorable environmental conditions such as warm surface waters and low wind shear. This type of abrupt strengthening is associated with some of the most destructive storms in history, such as Hurricanes Andrew, Katrina, and Maria. Meteorologists were stunned this week when the winds of Hurricane Otis defied predictions and exploded by 110 miles per hour in just 24 hours, plowing into the west coast of Mexico at category 5 strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judt and his co-authors also identified a second mode of rapid intensification that had previously been overlooked because it doesn\u2019t lead to peak winds reaching such destructive levels. In the case of this mode, the strengthening can be linked to major bursts of thunderstorms far from the storm\u2019s center. These bursts trigger a reconfiguration of the cyclone\u2019s circulation, enabling it to intensify rapidly, reaching category 1 or 2 intensity within a matter of hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This second mode is more unexpected because it typically occurs in the face of unfavorable conditions, such as countervailing upper-level winds that shear the storm by blowing the top in a different direction than the bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThose storms are not as memorable and they\u2019re not as significant,\u201d Judt said. \u201cBut forecasters need to be aware that even a storm that\u2019s strongly sheared and asymmetric can undergo a mode of rapid intensification.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new study appeared in the\u00a0Monthly Weather Review,<\/em>\u00a0a journal of the American Meteorological Society. It was funded by the U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research and by the U.S. National Science Foundation, which is NCAR\u2019s sponsor. It was co-authored by NCAR scientists Rosimar Rios-Berrios and George Bryan.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A SERENDIPITOUS FINDING<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Rapid intensification occurs when the winds of a tropical cyclone increase by 30 knots (about 35 miles per hour) in a 24-hour period. Judt came across the two modes of rapid intensification when working on an unrelated project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The discovery emerged after Judt produced a very high-resolution, 40-day computer simulation of the global atmosphere, using the NCAR-based Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). That simulation, run at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center, was designed for an international project comparing the output of leading atmospheric models, which have achieved unprecedented detail because of increasingly powerful supercomputers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once Judt produced the model, he was curious to examine storms in the simulation that rapidly intensified. By looking at a number of cases across the world\u2019s ocean basins, he noticed that rapid intensification occurred in two distinct ways. This had not previously been apparent in models, partly because previous simulations captured only individual regions instead of allowing scientists to track a spectrum of hurricanes and typhoons across the world\u2019s oceans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judt and his co-authors then combed through actual observations of tropical cyclones and found a number of real-world instances of both modes of rapid intensification. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt was kind of a serendipitous finding,\u201d Judt said. \u201cJust by looking at the storms in the simulation and making plots, I realized that storms that rapidly intensify fall into two different camps. One is the canonical mode in which there\u2019s a tropical storm when you go to bed and when you wake up it\u2019s a category 4. But then there\u2019s another mode that goes from a tropical storm to a category 1 or 2, and it fits the definition of rapid intensification. Since nobody has those storms on their radar, that mode of rapid intensification went undetected until I went through the simulation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meteorologists have long known that favorable environmental conditions, including very warm surface waters and minimal wind shear, can generate rapid intensification and bring a cyclone to category 4 or 5 strength with sustained winds of 130 mph or higher. In their new paper, Judt and his co-authors referred to that mode of rapid intensification as a marathon because the storm keeps intensifying symmetrically at a moderate pace while the primary vortex steadily amplifies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judt described Hurricane Otis as a fast marathon because it intensified symmetrically but at an unusually rapid pace, marked by an 80 mph increase in wind speed during a 12-hour period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study team labeled the other mode of rapid intensification as a sprint because the intensification is extremely quick but generally doesn\u2019t last as long, with storms peaking at category 1 or 2 strength and sustained winds of 110 mph or less. In such cases, explosive bursts of thunderstorms lead to a rearrangement of the cyclone and the emergence of a new center, enabling the storm to become more powerful \u2014 even in the face of adverse environmental conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper concludes that the two modes may represent opposite ends of a spectrum, with many cases of rapid intensification falling somewhere in between. For instance, rapid intensification may begin with a chain of discrete events such as a burst of thunderstorms that are characteristic of the sprint mode, but then transition into a more symmetrical mode of intensification that is characteristic of the marathon mode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A question for future research is why bursts of thunderstorms can cause about 10% of storms in an unconducive environment to rapidly intensify, even though the other 90% do not, Judt said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere could be a mechanism we haven\u2019t discovered yet that would enable us to identify the 10 from the 90,\u201d he said. \u201cMy working hypothesis is that it\u2019s random, but it\u2019s important for forecasters to be aware that rapid intensification is a typical process even in an unfavorable environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Note:<\/em>\u00a0NCAR is working with NSF and NOAA to develop a next-generation radar,\u00a0the Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR)<\/a>\u00a0that can revolutionize our ability to understand and ultimately forecast high-impact weather events such as hurricanes.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a breath of fresh air in explaining rapid intensification of hurricanes, without playing the climate blame-game. From the paper:\u00a0\u2018Forecasting these \u201crapid intensification\u201d events is a challenge, in part because we do not fully understand the science behind rapid intensification.\u2018\u2013 Anthony From Watts Up With That? SCIENTISTS FIND TWO […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":286226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"From the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a breath of fresh air in explaining rapid intensification of hurricanes, without playing the climate blame-game. From the paper:\u00a0\u2018Forecasting these \u201crapid intensification\u201d events is a challenge, in part b","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824204,691818056,691824202,691818104,691824203],"class_list":{"0":"post-286223","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atmospheric-models","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-computer-modeling","11":"tag-hurricanes","12":"tag-ncar-based-model","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=2048%2C2048&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1csv","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":284259,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284259","url_meta":{"origin":286223,"position":0},"title":"Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"More climate junk science made for climate alarmist and fans of climate propaganda. From Watts Up With That? This new paper in Nature Scientific Reports claims to identify a trend in hurricane intensification so significant that it\u2019s utterly absurd that hurricane forecasters and modelers wouldn\u2019t have noticed and identified it\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":281346,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281346","url_meta":{"origin":286223,"position":1},"title":"Critical examination of hurricane intensification predictions.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Why climate models not yet worth their salt! As all hurricane researchers lament, model predictions of when and where hurricanes will intensify, have not improved much in the past 20 years. As recently as the early 2010s, weather model forecasts failed to predict 88 percent of rapidly intensifying tropical storms.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":411107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411107","url_meta":{"origin":286223,"position":2},"title":"The AP Gets Hurricanes Wrong, Again, Melissa\u2019s Intensity Is Not Proof of Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a widely published\u00a0Associated Press\u00a0(AP) article,\u00a0\u201cClimate change fuels Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification to Category 5,\u201d\u00a0reporter Sibi Arasu claims that \u201cthe warming of the world\u2019s oceans caused by climate change helped double Hurricane Melissa\u2019s wind speed in less than 24 hours.\u201d This is highly misleading if not outright false. Scientific data\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416181,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416181","url_meta":{"origin":286223,"position":3},"title":"Sorry, NPR, There Is No Evidence That Climate Change Made Hurricane Melissa Worse for Jamaica","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"National Public Radio ran a segment claiming climate change was to blame for Hurricane Melissa\u2019s severity and its impact on Jamaica. There is no data to justify this claim, which is not supported by Jamaica\u2019s hurricane history or Atlantic hurricane trends. Jamaica has been beset by hurricanes throughout its history,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412350,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412350","url_meta":{"origin":286223,"position":4},"title":"Wrong, Detroit Free Press, Hurricane Melissa Wasn\u2019t Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a Detroit Free Press (FP) opinion piece, \u201cClimate change denial can\u2019t stand up to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa,\u201d meteorologist Paul Gross claims that Hurricane Melissa proves climate change is making hurricanes stronger, faster, and more destructive. This is false. Hurricanes are weather, not climate. A single storm\u2014or even a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":418799,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418799","url_meta":{"origin":286223,"position":5},"title":"True, Rigzone, 2025 Was Quiet in the USA For Hurricanes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at the website Rigzone, \u201cNo Hurricanes Strike USA For 1st Time in a Decade,\u201d discusses how the United States lucked out by not being struck by any hurricanes this year, and never once credits climate change. The whole post is factual and straightforward. 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