{"id":285625,"date":"2023-10-29T14:15:40","date_gmt":"2023-10-29T13:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285625"},"modified":"2023-10-29T14:15:44","modified_gmt":"2023-10-29T13:15:44","slug":"noaa-predicts-a-quicker-stronger-solar-max","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285625","title":{"rendered":"NOAA Predicts a Quicker, Stronger Solar\u00a0Max"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the Solar Cycle was discovered over 180 years ago, its progression has been monitored by counting the number of sunspots and sunspot groups visible (through a solar telescope) on the solar surface each day.\u00a0Solar cycle 25 is\u00a0the current solar cycle,\u00a0the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Spaceweather.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By DR.TONY PHILLIPS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oct. 25, 2023<\/strong>\u00a0(Spaceweather.com<\/a><\/em>): When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2020, leading forecasters\u00a0thought it would be weak<\/a>\u00a0and slow to develop. Fast forward three years: NOAA is now predicting a quicker, stronger solar cycle. The revised forecast, published yesterday, shows Solar Max coming sometime between January and October 2024:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NOAA\u2019s original prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is shown in pink (\"\"), the broad band indicating the uncertainty of the forecast. It has become clear in recent years that the original prediction was too low, which prompted NOAA to issue a new one. The magenta line (\"\") traces the new forecast, and takes into account recent high sunspot counts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainties in the new forecast are bounded by different shades of magenta. There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the dark-shaded region; a 50% chance it will fall in the medium-shaded region; and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If this new forecast is correct, Solar Cycle 25 could land in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23<\/a>, which peaked in 2000-2001, and produced the famous Halloween Storms of 2003<\/a>. However, the odds still favor Solar Cycle 25 being a bit weaker than Solar Cycle 23. Either way, next year\u2019s Solar Max could be potent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA plans to update this new forecast every month. Check out their Space Weather Prediction Testbed for the latest prediction<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since the Solar Cycle was discovered over 180 years ago, its progression has been monitored by counting the number of sunspots and sunspot groups visible (through a solar telescope) on the solar surface each day.\u00a0Solar cycle 25 is\u00a0the current solar cycle,\u00a0the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.\u00a0 From Spaceweather.com By […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":285628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Since the Solar Cycle was discovered over 180 years ago, its progression has been monitored by counting the number of sunspots and sunspot groups visible (through a solar telescope) on the solar surface each day.\u00a0Solar cycle 25 is\u00a0the current solar cycle,","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818397,691819041,691820595],"class_list":{"0":"post-285625","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-noaa","9":"tag-solar-cycle","10":"tag-solar-max","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0cycle_update.png?fit=1280%2C650&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ciR","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":289956,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289956","url_meta":{"origin":285625,"position":0},"title":"The Sun’s Rampant Activity Is Likely to Peak Really, Really Soon: Study","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Sun is approaching its solar maximum, the apex of its 11-year solar cycle. 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