{"id":285535,"date":"2023-10-28T19:54:29","date_gmt":"2023-10-28T17:54:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285535"},"modified":"2023-10-28T19:54:33","modified_gmt":"2023-10-28T17:54:33","slug":"turmoil-around-the-amoc-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285535","title":{"rendered":"Turmoil around the AMOC again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ANY estimation of the timing of a tipping point must take into account the uncertainties, which are so considerable that they are all inadequate in the light of day, when made. Bet you won’t read that in the media? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From The\u00a0KlimaNachrichten Editor<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A reminiscence of an article about the imminent “tipping point” of the Atlantic overturning circulation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of July<\/a> 2023, we reported on a paper<\/a> that thought it had identified the “tipping point” of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC): It should (most likely) be ready as early as 2057. It kicked up a lot of dust, we described it. Our summary at the time:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“DD23 is an exercise in statistics, very far from any evidence of physical significance for the AMOC itself. The conclusions are not supported by the content of the paper.” <\/em> <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime (mid-September 2023), another, not yet peer-reviewed (preprint) paper<\/a> appeared, which finds very similar. It uses several data series for sea surface temperatures (SST) and another “fingerprint” of the AMOC, a dipole that avoids the warming itself from being included in the result of the AMOC decrease sought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And lo and behold: she comes to completely different conclusions. Depending on which series one uses (especially in the early years up to about 1950 they are very incomplete in direct observation and what is missing is supplemented by various “infill methods” that have a strong effect on the statistics on which the article in question is based) one comes to completely divergent results. Thus, the “collapse” of the AMOC is postponed by almost a hundred years, if you use the same “fingerprint”, only a different SST series (instead of HadISST1 ERSSTv5).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other, also SST-based “fingerprint” postpones the “collapse” determined by the methods of the paper to between 2100 and the year 3300 and beyond! At the end, the authors, including, interestingly, Niklas Boers of PIK, who is probably concerned about the scientific reputation of the institution, write:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“We emphasize that these uncertainties, originating from underlying modelling or mechanistic assumptions as well as from the employed empirical data, need to be taken into account and propagated thoroughly before attempting to estimate a future tipping time of any potential Earth system tipping element.” <\/em> <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

ANY estimation of the timing of a tipping point must take into account the uncertainties, which are so considerable that they are all inadequate in the light of day, when made. Bet you won’t read that in the media? They had their hands full, with the active help of Prof. Rahmstorf, also from PIK, to propagate the imminent end of the AMOC. That’s what the attentive reader has this blog for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ANY estimation of the timing of a tipping point must take into account the uncertainties, which are so considerable that they are all inadequate in the light of day, when made. Bet you won’t read that in the media? From The\u00a0KlimaNachrichten Editor By Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse A reminiscence of an article about the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":285540,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"ANY estimation of the timing of a tipping point must take into account the uncertainties, which are so considerable that they are all inadequate in the light of day, when made. Bet you won't read that in the media? ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824079,691819134,691819743,691818525,691824081,691824080,691823916],"class_list":{"0":"post-285535","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc","9":"tag-climate-alarmism","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-collapse","12":"tag-exercise-in-statistics","13":"tag-prof-rahmstorf","14":"tag-tipping-point","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=4272%2C2157&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1chp","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":282169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169","url_meta":{"origin":285535,"position":0},"title":"AMOC: A Non-Tipping point","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? 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There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417967,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417967","url_meta":{"origin":285535,"position":1},"title":"Yahoo\u2019s Waning Ocean Current Claims Are Hyperbolic and False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Yahoo News article, \u201cExperts warn ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean will be direct threat to dozens of nations: \u2018Consequences for at least 1,000 years to come,\u2019\u201d by Timothy McGill, claims a new modeling study shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC,) would intensify Southern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":285535,"position":2},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409239","url_meta":{"origin":285535,"position":3},"title":"New Study Contradicts The Alarmist Narrative That Says The AMOC Is Catastrophically Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Alarmists claim that, due to anthropogenic climate change (AGW), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening to the point that it\u2019s on the verge of\u00a0collapsing. It\u2019s claimed this will lead to abrupt cooling and extreme weather in the North Atlantic region.","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-climate-change-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270153,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270153","url_meta":{"origin":285535,"position":4},"title":"No CNN, Gulf Stream is Not\u00a0Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/29\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The averaged AMOC projections from\u00a0climate models\u00a0under all the IPCC emissions\u00a0scenarios all show an AMOC decline, but not a collapse (a \u201chigh confidence\u201d conclusion). Some individual climate model runs do show a future collapse in the AMOC, so the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269746,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269746","url_meta":{"origin":285535,"position":5},"title":"Climate Disaster Study: Gulf Stream Could Collapse as Early as 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An AMOC collapse is believed to have caused the\u00a0Younger Dryas, an abrupt return to Northern Hemisphere ice age conditions which occurred 12,900 years ago, which lasted over a thousand years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=285535"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285535\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285542,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285535\/revisions\/285542"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/285540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=285535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=285535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=285535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}