{"id":285442,"date":"2023-10-28T15:58:21","date_gmt":"2023-10-28T13:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285442"},"modified":"2023-10-28T15:58:24","modified_gmt":"2023-10-28T13:58:24","slug":"churchill-so-far-has-few-problems-with-polar-bears-despite-predictions-of-a-record-bad-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285442","title":{"rendered":"Churchill so far has few problems with polar bears despite predictions of a record bad year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
A polar bear near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill is one of the few human settlements where polar bears can be observed in the wild. Frequently called \u201cLords of the Arctic\u201d, these animals are huge. Male polar bears can grow to more than 600 kg (1,320 lbs) and stand 3.05 metres (10 feet) tall. But despite their massive size, these bears can move with surprising speed.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite\u00a0misleading warnings<\/a>\u00a0in mid-August that a\u00a0record number<\/a>\u00a0of incidents had already taken place, and that Churchill was on track for a\u00a0record-number of bear<\/a>\u00a0problems this fall, the number of incidents and bears captured so far have been well below other years after the same number of weeks ashore. And while this is shaping up to be the longest ice-free season on record for Western Hudson Bay bears, it may not be a record year for problem bears in Churchill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOn average, officers receive around 250 calls from residents and detain around 50 bears every year, according to statistics provided to Live Science by the Manitoba government. The record number of bears captured in a single year was 176, in 2003<\/em>.\u201d\u00a0LiveScience<\/a><\/em>, 16 August 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problem bear reports<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the season is far from over, this year after 19 weeks on shore\u2013to 22 October\u2013the\u00a0Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program<\/a>\u00a0has registered a paltry 158 incidents with problem bears (item 2, \u201coccurrence reports to date\u201d) compared to 246 in 2018, and 263 in 2016 at week 19. Only 2017 had a similar number of incidents (148) after 4 months ashore. Note that bears captured are item 3, \u201cbears handled to date.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In other words, while this year is shaping up to be an extended ice-free season for Western Hudson Bay<\/a> polar bears due to an earlier-than-usual sea ice breakup at mid-June<\/a> (at 17 June, about 4 weeks earlier than usual for the last 7-8 years), so far that doesn\u2019t seem to be translating into an increase in problem bear incidents. Even with the \u2018zero-tolerance\u2019 <\/a>for bears near town that\u2019s been normal for the last 10 years, 158 incidents and 12 captures after 19 weeks onshore is a pretty quiet season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In comparison, 2016 was a late freeze-up year and bears couldn\u2019t depart for the ice until early December. But by the same point in the onshore season at 19 weeks\u2013which was the 3rd week of November in 2016 because most bears didn\u2019t leave the ice\u00a0until mid-July<\/a>\u2013there had already been 262 incidents and 41 bears captured:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In 2017\u2013the other low incident season in recent years\u2013by week 19 (third week of November), sea ice was forming and bears were on their way to the ice. By that time, there had only been 148 incidents and 22 captures:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last four years<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill bears from 2019 to 2022<\/a>\u00a0spent 4 months or less on shore, so can\u2019t really be compared to this extended year: bears were only on shore for 16 weeks in 2019, 14 weeks in 2020, 17 weeks in 2021, and 15 weeks in 2022. However, just to show what happens during a short season on shore, in 2019 the second week of November was week 16 and by then enough ice had formed for the bears to leave, and there had been only 138 incidents and 24 captures:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, the season was even shorter: less than 4 months. Although freeze-up didn\u2019t come until the end of November, the bears hadn\u2019t left the ice\u00a0until August<\/a>. By the end of the season, there had been only 116 incidents and 4 captures:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prospects and consequences of a late freeze-up<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year, based on records about two weeks away from the first week of November, when freeze-up happens some years, this has been a low incident season. However, the season isn\u2019t over yet and ice is not likely to form until late November at the earliest. That\u2019s not the result of human-caused climate change but a strong El Nino<\/a>, which also delayed Hudson Bay freeze-up in 2016<\/a> and 1998\/1999.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most bears have already been onshore for about 120 days. Combined with the early breakup this year, a late freeze-up in early December could mean bears will be on shore for another 7 weeks or about 170 days total, which as far as I\u2019m aware,<\/strong> hasn\u2019t happened before<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And ominously, that\u2019s the new \u201ccut-off\u201d date polar bear specialists have set for catastrophic starvation of male bears (i.e., 171 days).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter Molnar and colleagues concocted a model for Western Hudson Bay polar bear survival a decade ago (Molnar et al. 2010) that predicted 28-48% <\/a>of male polar bears in WH would die if climate change caused the fasting period to be extended from the 120 days (4 months) that were usual during the 1980s to 180 days (6 months) sometime in the future (see also Robbins et al. 2012, which I wrote about here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those calculations were revised and used to formulate the scientifically implausible<\/a> prediction of doom for the future of polar bears published in 2020 (Molnar et al. 2020), which depended on discredited RCP8.5<\/a> (\u201cbusiness as usual\u201d) climate scenarios (Burgess et al. 2021; Hausfather and Peters 2020). Based on these predictions, polar bear specialist should be expecting wide-spread starvation of adult males and females with cubs near Churchill if freeze-up is delayed until early December (about 170 days ashore):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMother bears cannot fast as long as solitary females due to their reproductive burden; males cannot fast as long as solitary females<\/strong> due to the higher maintenance requirements and lower storage energy of their leaner bodies; and cubs are more vulnerable than yearlings due to their higher reliance on maternal
energy reserves. \u2026in 2015, the fasting period reached 153 days<\/strong>, approaching the conservatively estimated impact threshold for male survival (now \u2264171 days<\/strong>), and possibly also for the survival of females with offspring (between 98 and 192 days in 2007; now possibly lower)<\/em>.\u201d [Molnar et al. 2020:733, my bold]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bears cause problems when they are truly stressed by lack of body fat, so something to keep in mind over the coming weeks is that by the end of the late freeze-up season of 2016<\/strong> (at week 22, second week of December), there were a total of 386 incidents and 53 captures:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Time will tell what actually transpires this year. I expect that scientists will keep the media posted with updates, have their cameras ready to record the impending catastrophe, and that conservation officers are prepared for problem bear incidents to sky-rocket as the animals become desperate for food.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or not,<\/em>\u00a0if the experts turn out to be wrong, as they almost always are. I suspect WH polar bears have already\u00a0adapted<\/a>, via natural selection, to changing sea ice conditions over the last few decades and will therefore weather this challenge relatively unscathed, while polar bear specialists never consider this as a possibility. That\u2019s because I am a\u00a0expert in evolution<\/a>\u00a0and they are not (Crockford 2023). And unlike the conservation-focused experts, I\u2019ll be willing to admit I\u2019m wrong if this really is a devastating season for WH polar bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Burgess, M.G., Ritchie, J., Shapland, J., and Pielke Jr., R. 2021.<\/strong> IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth. Environmental Research Letters<\/em> 16:014016. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/abcdd2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crockford, S.J. 2023. <\/strong>Polar Bear Evolution: A Model for How New Species Arise<\/em>. Amazon Digital Services, Victoria.  https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/1778038328<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G.P. 2020. <\/strong>Emissions \u2013 the \u2018business as usual\u2019 story is misleading [\u201cStop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome \u2014 more-realistic baselines make for better policy\u201d]. Nature<\/em> 577: 618-620<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moln\u00e1r, P.K., Bitz, C.M., Holland, M.M., Kay, J.E., Penk, S.R. and Amstrup, S.C. 2020.<\/strong> Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence. Nature Climate Change<\/em> 10:732-738. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-020-0818-9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Molnar, P.K., Derocher, A.E., Theimann, G., and Lewis, M.A. 2010.<\/strong> Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change. Biological Conservation <\/em>143:<\/strong>1612-1622. http:\/\/www.math.ualberta.ca\/~mlewis\/Publications%202010\/Molnar-Derocher-Thiemann-Lewis.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robbins, C.T., Lopez-Alfaro, C., Rode, K.D., T\u00f8ien, \u00d8., and Nelson, O.L. 2012.<\/strong>\u00a0Hibernation and seasonal fasting in bears: the energetic costs and consequences for polar bears.\u00a0Journal of Mammalogy\u00a0<\/em>93(6):1493-1503.\u00a0http:\/\/www.asmjournals.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1644\/11-MAMM-A-406.1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Churchill is one of the few human settlements where polar bears can be observed in the wild. Frequently called \u201cLords of the Arctic\u201d, these animals are huge. Male polar bears can grow to more than 600 kg (1,320 lbs) and stand 3.05 metres (10 feet) tall. But despite their massive size, these bears can move […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":285455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Churchill is one of the few human settlements where polar bears can be observed in the wild. Frequently called \u201cLords of the Arctic\u201d, these animals are huge. Male polar bears can grow to more than 600 kg (1,320 lbs) and stand 3.05 metres (10 feet) tall. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821887,691824066,691824065,691824067,691818251,691820789],"class_list":{"0":"post-285442","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-churchill","9":"tag-churchill-polar-bear-alert-program","10":"tag-lords-of-the-arctic","11":"tag-peter-molnar","12":"tag-polar-bears","13":"tag-western-hudson-bay","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0308738.jpg?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1cfU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":343142,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=343142","url_meta":{"origin":285442,"position":0},"title":"Churchill seemingly unworried about polar bears, fails to post problem bear reports on social media","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We know transparency\u2019s gone out the window for many public officials, but still: Since early August, I\u2019ve been checking daily for Problem Polar Bear Reports issued by the Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program managed by Manitoba Conservation.","rel":"","context":"In \"Churchill polar bears\"","block_context":{"text":"Churchill polar bears","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=churchill-polar-bears"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0thumb-CHURCHPO-polar-bear-with-two-cubs-standing-snow-churchill-manitoba-canada-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0thumb-CHURCHPO-polar-bear-with-two-cubs-standing-snow-churchill-manitoba-canada-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0thumb-CHURCHPO-polar-bear-with-two-cubs-standing-snow-churchill-manitoba-canada-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0thumb-CHURCHPO-polar-bear-with-two-cubs-standing-snow-churchill-manitoba-canada-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0thumb-CHURCHPO-polar-bear-with-two-cubs-standing-snow-churchill-manitoba-canada-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":356693,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=356693","url_meta":{"origin":285442,"position":1},"title":"More Polar Bear Propaganda from the\u00a0BBC","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The BBC has been running its annual \u201cPolar Bears Are All Going to Die\u201d propaganda again","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":334659,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334659","url_meta":{"origin":285442,"position":2},"title":"Arctic sea ice at the summer solstice: more polar bear habitat than 2022 after hottest year on record","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We are just into the 2024 sea ice melt season in the Arctic with no signs of any big, dramatic changes despite claims that 2023 was the warmest year on record (since 1850). There is still abundant sea ice habitat for polar bears ahead of the summer months (July-September) when\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wild-polar-bear-mother-and-cub-on-the-pack-ice-picture-id1181703271.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wild-polar-bear-mother-and-cub-on-the-pack-ice-picture-id1181703271.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wild-polar-bear-mother-and-cub-on-the-pack-ice-picture-id1181703271.jpg?fit=1200%2C717&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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polar bear \u201adocumentary \u2018","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In a move that echoes the collaboration of activist organization\u00a0World Wildlife Fund\u00a0(WWF) with\u00a0Netflix\u00a0that brought us\u00a0Sir David Attenborough\u2018s walrus deception in \u201aOur Planet\u2018 that I chronicled in my latest book,\u00a0\u201aFallen Icon\u2018, streaming service\u00a0DisneyNature\u00a0has joined with activist organization\u00a0Polar Bears International\u00a0(PBI) to create a polar bear\u00a0\u201adocumentary\u2018\u00a0(called \u201aPolar Bear\u2018) that we can tell is\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar 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