{"id":284610,"date":"2023-10-23T11:28:30","date_gmt":"2023-10-23T09:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284610"},"modified":"2023-10-23T11:28:34","modified_gmt":"2023-10-23T09:28:34","slug":"where-is-the-alleged-australian-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284610","title":{"rendered":"Where Is the Alleged Australian Warming?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with all scientific work, researchers are not permitted to rely on convoluted interpretations when the simple, primary data do not tell the required story.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dingo in the Chook House. Beware!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geoff Sherrington<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where is the claimed Australian Global Warming?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where is the fingerprint of Australian Urban Heat Island effect?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is there only one Monopolies Commission?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a puzzling picture. (click to enlarge)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Background.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology, BOM, released a big data product a decade ago. It showed the historic, daily, observed temperatures as maxima and minima in \u2070C for about 1,650 weather stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the foundational, raw data on which much climate research is based, for Australian temperatures.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My graph uses a sub-set of these foundational temperatures. It is for the 6 State capital cities, plus Darwin and Alice Springs to get more coverage of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melbourne 1855 is the oldest start date for the data. Perth, 1897 is the most recent start date. All data end in December 2006, because the finish date for the BOM compilers was April 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As is customary (though I do not like this method) the image above shows linear least squares fits of regression lines, or simply trend lines. Missing data are not infilled. Outliers are not removed. Some stations have only one station number, meaning no large changes to the station location, while others have up to 3 moves large enough to earn new BOM station numbers. See the columns labelled \u2018station number\u2019 in the Excel file below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0I have downloaded and I acknowledge with thanks, a year 2010 BOM graph of the average annual and decadal temperatures of Australia, with my calculated trend line of 0.96 \u2070C per century equivalent added in blue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These linear trends in temperatures over time are my main metric here. Trend is used because it should not change greatly with geography. The chosen units of trend are \u2070C per century <\/strong>to allow easy comparisons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BOM asserted in 2022 that \u201cAustralia\u2019s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 \u00b1 0.24 \u00b0C since national records began in 1910.\u201d That 112 years corrected to 100 years gives a linear trend of 1.31 \u2070C per century equivalent. Source:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/state-of-the-climate\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are the calculated trends for these 8 cities graphed above, plus all Australia, in units of \u2070C per century but for the century (almost) of 1910 to 2006 incl. The data from 2006 to 2021 indicate higher temperatures than earlier that strongly affect the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/th><\/th>Average Trend<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Brisbane<\/td>1887 to 2006<\/td>0.14<\/td><\/tr>
Sydney<\/td>1859 to 2006<\/td>1.06<\/td><\/tr>
Melbourne<\/td>1856 to 2006<\/td>0.94<\/td><\/tr>
Hobart<\/td>1883 to 2006<\/td>0.66<\/td><\/tr>
Adelaide<\/td>1888 to 2006<\/td>0.26<\/td><\/tr>
Perth<\/td>1897 to 2006<\/td>1.27<\/td><\/tr>
Darwin<\/td>1885 to 2006<\/td>-0.6<\/td><\/tr>
Alice Springs<\/td>1879 70 2006<\/td>0.27<\/td><\/tr>
All Australia<\/td>1910 to 2006<\/td>0.97<\/td><\/tr>
All Australia<\/td>1910 to 2022<\/td>1.31<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Populations today are roughly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n