{"id":284511,"date":"2023-10-22T15:41:59","date_gmt":"2023-10-22T13:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284511"},"modified":"2023-10-22T15:42:01","modified_gmt":"2023-10-22T13:42:01","slug":"as-above-so-below","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284511","title":{"rendered":"As Above, So Below"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The term\u00a0temperature anomaly\u00a0means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have the world\u2019s best science gig. I can research whatever I want, whenever I want, for as long as I want, and I don\u2019t get paid a dime no matter how hard I work. What\u2019s not to like?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, I got to wondering about how many temperature stations we\u2019d need to get an accurate idea of the average temperature of the earth. Being a data guy rather than a theory guy, I figured I could use the CERES dataset<\/a> to take a first cut at the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me preface this by explaining the temperature dataset I use in my analyses. The CERES radiation datasets don\u2019t contain a surface temperature dataset. However, they have an upwelling surface upwelling longwave (thermal) radiation dataset. Because many of my analyses use the CERES dataset, I used the CERES surface radiation dataset to create a surface temperature dataset. I did the calculation using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation and utilizing the gridded surface emissivity from here<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How good is the resulting CERES calculated temperature dataset? Here\u2019s a comparison with the Berkeley Earth, HadCRUT, and Japanese Meteorological Agency datasets. Seasonal variations have been removed from all datasets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, the calculated CERES surface temperature agrees with the other three as well as they agree with each other. Turns out it also agrees better than either the HadCRUT or the JMA dataset with the Berkeley Earth dataset\u2026 so I use the CERES data in this and my other analyses. However, as indicated by the graph above, it makes no practical difference which dataset is used. Doing the following analysis on the Berkeley Earth gridded temperature dataset gives essentially the same results as using the CERES dataset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that as prologue, my scheme was to randomly pick a subset of the 64,800 1\u00b0 latitude by 1\u00b0 longitude gridcells that make up the earth\u2019s surface, and see what that subset gave me as an average temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most interesting results were when I used just one percent of the gridcells (n = 648). Here\u2019s an example of one of the random selections of 1% of the gridcells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you might imagine, running the random example many times gave very different average temperatures from different random subsets of 1% of the gridcells. Here\u2019s a histogram of the average temperatures of a typical run of 100 trials using only 1% of the gridcells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The average temperatures range from 13.5 to 16.5 degrees, so there is little agreement between subsets. No surprise, as I said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But my next graph was a surprise. I decided to plot the monthly data for some of the individual runs. Here\u2019s an example of ten runs, including the linear trend lines. I\u2019ve removed the seasonal variations from each dataset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two things were surprising about this. One was that the trends were all pretty much identical. I expected much greater differences using only 1% of the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other was that the actual monthly results were all so similar, having the same overall shape with just a different average temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To investigate further, I plotted up the anomalies for each of the runs. I created the anomalies by subtracting the average of each run from the values of that run. Here are those results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fascinating. Although we can\u2019t get much clarity on the absolute global average temperature from 1% of the data, we can use that same 1% of the data to get a pretty good idea regarding the overall trend and the monthly variations in the global average data. None of the individual 1% runs vary much at all from the global average, and their trends are tightly clustered. I didn\u2019t expect that at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, I got to thinking about the oft-repeated claims that the Little Ice Age back in the 1600\u2019s \u2013 1700\u2019s was just a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon, or that it\u2019s only based on land records, or both. So, I thought I\u2019d take a look at just the NH land data, to see how random subsets of just the northern hemisphere land matched up with the global data. Of course, since the NH land is much smaller than the globe and it\u2019s land rather than ocean, the temperature swings in the average NH land temperature will be larger than the swings in the entire global average. So in order to compare them, I\u2019ve adjusted for that in the following graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Again, most interesting. With knowledge of the temperature in around a hundred twenty randomly selected gridcells out of the 64,800 total gridcells, with the known gridcells located only on land and covering less than a quarter of one percent of the earth\u2019s surface, we can closely approximate both the global temperature anomaly and the global temperature trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any given run may or may not be all that exact a match to the entire globe, but none of them are much different, and their trends only vary slightly \u2026 which makes me misdoubt the idea that the Little Ice Age was a local phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seems like a validation of what I modestly call \u201cWillis\u2019s First Rule Of Climate<\/em>\u201c, which states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIn climate, everything is related to everything else, which in turn is related to everything else \u2026 except when it isn\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Best of life to everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Always: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you are referring to. I can defend my words. I can\u2019t defend your idea of what my words say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The term\u00a0temperature anomaly\u00a0means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. From Watts Up With That? Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I have the world\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":284522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The term\u00a0temperature anomaly\u00a0means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature wa","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823875,691821163,691818465,691823876,691819281,691819765],"class_list":["post-284511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-average-temperatures","tag-ceres","tag-climate","tag-global-temperature-trend","tag-little-ice-age","tag-surface-temperature","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/02385_temp-graph-012721.jpg?fit=1280%2C716&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1c0T","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":287853,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287853","url_meta":{"origin":284511,"position":0},"title":"L A Times Fails to Comprehend the Difference between \u201cAverage Temperature Anomaly\u201d & \u201cAbsolute Maximum Temperature\u201d Climate Data","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Essay by Larry Hamlin In the most recent L A Times\u00a0article\u00a0hyping \u201cthe hottest October on record\u201d the Times can\u2019t seem to get it right in understanding the critical differences between\u00a0\u201caverage temperature anomaly\u201d\u00a0and\u00a0\u201cmaximum absolute temperature\u201d\u00a0data. The Times article references the global\u00a0average temperature anomaly\u00a0graphic noted below which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"average temperature anomaly\"","block_context":{"text":"average temperature anomaly","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=average-temperature-anomaly"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-391.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-391.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-391.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-391.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291766,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291766","url_meta":{"origin":284511,"position":1},"title":"NASA GISS Data Shows 2023 EL Nino Driving Global Temperature Anomaly Increases; NOAA Data Shows U.S. Nov. 2023 Temperature Anomaly Declining","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The NASA GISS global average temperature anomaly for November 2023 was released (provided below) which shows an El Ni\u00f1o driven value of 1.44 degrees C (2.592 degrees F) with the November outcome hyped in an\u00a0L A Times article\u00a0as being \u201ca new monthly record for heat\u201d and the \u201chottest November\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-07-29T140641.234.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333335,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333335","url_meta":{"origin":284511,"position":2},"title":"NOAA\u2019s Updated 2024 Global Average Temperature Anomaly Trend Continues to Decline Indicating a Weaking El Nino and No \u201cClimate Emergency\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/20\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA has updated its Global Time Series Average Temperature Anomaly data through May 2024 with the results clearly indicating that the year 2023\/2024 El Nino event continues to weaken as demonstrated by the data presented and discussed below. The NOAA data presented below uses a graph display interval of a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"average temperature\"","block_context":{"text":"average temperature","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=average-temperature"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ea63f8a5b3fc78b38f04a71a9c0f648.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ea63f8a5b3fc78b38f04a71a9c0f648.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ea63f8a5b3fc78b38f04a71a9c0f648.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ea63f8a5b3fc78b38f04a71a9c0f648.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ea63f8a5b3fc78b38f04a71a9c0f648.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":374742,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374742","url_meta":{"origin":284511,"position":3},"title":"What is the Global Average SST?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The global average SST (Sea Surface Temperature) is a very important component of the global average surface temperature for the simple reason that the global ocean covers almost 71% of Earth\u2019s surface.","rel":"","context":"In \"grid cell\"","block_context":{"text":"grid cell","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=grid-cell"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0buac17-img-seasurftempmap-poster.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0buac17-img-seasurftempmap-poster.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0buac17-img-seasurftempmap-poster.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0buac17-img-seasurftempmap-poster.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0buac17-img-seasurftempmap-poster.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":296653,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=296653","url_meta":{"origin":284511,"position":4},"title":"2023 \u201cEarth\u2019s Hottest Year on Record\u201d Claims Fail","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/18\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Alarmists further exaggerate global \u201caverage temperature anomaly\u201d outcomes by claiming they represent a \u201cglobal climate emergency\u201d where \u201ctemperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in the last 100,000 years\u201d with all this ridiculous climate alarmist propaganda based on an increased 2023 global \u201caverage temperature anomaly\u201d difference of 0.15\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIG.xIbeO_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIG.xIbeO_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIG.xIbeO_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIG.xIbeO_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413289,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413289","url_meta":{"origin":284511,"position":5},"title":"Good News, COP30: Cooling Temperatures Reducing CO2 Rise","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/15\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Just in time for COP30 in Belem, Brazil, we have fresh confirmation that cooling temperatures are resulting in lower-than-expected levels of atmospheric CO2. Historical records show that around 1875 was the coldest time in the last 10,000 years. That was the end of the Little Ice Age, and since then\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=284511"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":284526,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284511\/revisions\/284526"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/284522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=284511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=284511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=284511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}