{"id":284259,"date":"2023-10-20T21:32:52","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T19:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284259"},"modified":"2023-10-20T21:32:55","modified_gmt":"2023-10-20T19:32:55","slug":"observed-increases-in-north-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-peak-intensification-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284259","title":{"rendered":"Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"284266\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=284266\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0Hurricane-Image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-284266\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>More climate junk science made  for climate alarmist and fans of climate propaganda. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"405\" data-attachment-id=\"284268\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=284268\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?fit=1200%2C673&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,673\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-547\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?fit=723%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?resize=723%2C405&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-284268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?resize=1024%2C574&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?resize=300%2C168&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?resize=768%2C431&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-547.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This new paper in Nature Scientific Reports claims to identify a trend in hurricane intensification so significant that it\u2019s utterly absurd that hurricane forecasters and modelers wouldn\u2019t have noticed and identified it previously. This triggers an intense bright red bullshit detector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wattsupwiththat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-59.png?resize=720%2C367&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10265129\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As others to dig into this study we\u2019ll likely see the flawed reasoning that was applied to tease out its conclusion. It\u2019s outside my wheelhouse to do so. When the smoke clears it will be just one more example of how Nature mag has flushed what little credibility it had down the toilet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>[Update since I scheduled this article. Ryan Maue has weighed in on X (formerly Twitter).]<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Quite the media rollout for new research paper claiming to link climate change with Atlantic hurricane intensification rates.<br><br>Unfortunately, the paper does not prove the climate change causation link.  Comparing Atlantic storms from two 20-year periods:  1971-1990 vs. 2001-2020\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/omfTRtlZ9c\">pic.twitter.com\/omfTRtlZ9c<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1715036314267967665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How did they exclude all the new tropical storms being found by the scatterometer, aircraft with onboard radar, etc.   They exclude all the 12h storms from the 12h stats, etc.  So that removes the 6h storms like Arlene but including them shows a drop in % of TS with 30 kt RI: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aeXVlP7IpD\">pic.twitter.com\/aeXVlP7IpD<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Eric Peterson (@purplesuit) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/purplesuit\/status\/1715076578307183031?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is the Abstract and Introduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Abs1\">Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quickly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) are exceptionally hazardous for Atlantic coastlines. An analysis of observed maximum changes in wind speed for Atlantic TCs from 1971 to 2020 indicates that TC intensification rates have already changed as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. Mean maximum TC intensification rates are up to 28.7% greater in a modern era (2001\u20132020) compared to a historical era (1971\u20131990). In the modern era, it is about as likely for TCs to intensify by at least 50 kts in 24&nbsp;h, and more likely for TCs to intensify by at least 20 kts within 24&nbsp;h than it was for TCs to intensify by these amounts in 36&nbsp;h in the historical era. Finally, the number of TCs that intensify from a Category 1 hurricane (or weaker) into a major hurricane within 36 h has more than doubled in the modern era relative to the historical era. Significance tests suggest that it would have been statistically impossible to observe the number of TCs that intensified in this way during the modern era if rates of intensification had not changed from the historical era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Sec1\">Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most damaging natural hazard to regularly impact the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR1\">1<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR2\">2<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR3\">3<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. From 2012 to 2022, over 160 \u201cbillion-dollar\u201d weather and climate disasters impacted the U.S; 24 of these events were TCs, including the six costliest disasters on record during this time<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Many of the most damaging TCs to impact the U.S. in recent years have been notable for the speed at which they have intensified. For instance, Hurricane Maria (2017), the climate disaster with the highest death toll since 1980, and the 4th highest economic cost in the last four decades, strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale in just over 48 hours<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR5\">5<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR6\">6<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Hurricanes Harvey (2017), Ian (2022), Sandy (2012), Ida (2021), and Irma (2017), the five other costliest U.S. weather and climate disasters in the last decade, all similarly strengthened rapidly, with most evolving from tropical storms to major hurricanes (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale or greater) in under three days<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR5\">5<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR8\">8<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR9\">9<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR10\">10<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR11\">11<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR12\">12<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fastest TC intensification rates often occur in areas of unusually warm upper ocean and sea surface temperatures (SSTs)<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR13\">13<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR14\">14<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR15\">15<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. These warm waters serve as a critical energy source for the strengthening storms which act as heat engines, transporting excess warmth from the oceans and atmosphere in the tropics to higher latitudes<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR17\">17<\/a><\/sup>. As anthropogenic emissions have warmed the planet, the world\u2019s oceans have warmed at the surface, where average temperatures have increased\u2009~\u20090.88 \u00b0C from 1850\u20131900 to 2011\u20132020<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. The rate at which ocean surfaces have warmed has also accelerated, with 0.60 \u00b0C of this warming occurring since 1980<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. Considering the role of warm upper ocean water and SSTs in the fastest TC intensification rates<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR13\">13<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR14\">14<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR15\">15<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR16\">16<\/a><\/sup>, it is reasonable to expect that we may observe an increase in TC intensification rates that coincides with warming ocean temperatures in recent decades<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR19\">19<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR20\">20<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR21\">21<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR22\">22<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR23\">23<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR24\">24<\/a><\/sup>. Given the highly-damaging nature of many TCs that intensify rapidly, and the operational and forecasting challenges posed by TCs that intensify most quickly<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR25\">25<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR26\">26<\/a><\/sup>, there is an urgent need to better understand how intensification rates of TCs may already have changed in a warming climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Various past studies have sought to understand how rapid intensification of TCs may evolve in a warmer climate, including work focused on understanding how intensification events that occur within certain regions or fall above a certain threshold may change over time<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR22\">22<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR27\">27<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR28\">28<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR29\">29<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR30\">30<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR31\">31<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR32\">32<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR33\">33<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR34\">34<\/a><\/sup>. For example, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR33\">33<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;examined intensification trends in landfalling TCs in East and Southeast Asia, and found that a 12\u201315% increase in the intensity of such storms at landfall was primarily due to an increase in the rate at which they intensified. In the Atlantic basin, multiple studies have sought to understand how TC intensification rates have changed near major coastlines. For instance, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR22\">22<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;found that there was an increased likelihood for TCs to intensify quickly near the U.S. coast during times when basin-wide conditions were generally less favorable for such intensification events. Also focusing on intensification near U.S. coastlines, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR28\">28<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;found that although the mean 24-h intensification rate of TCs increased by 1.2 kts\/6&nbsp;h near the U.S. Atlantic coast from 1979 to 2018, no similar increase was observed along the U.S. Gulf coast. Using a similar focus region, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR32\">32<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;found that, when considering U.S. landfalling TCs, there was a tendency for TCs that intensified rapidly in the 24&nbsp;h prior to landfall to decay more slowly after landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR27\">27<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;notes that in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, the 95th percentile of 24-h TC intensity changes increased at 3.8 kts per decade from 1986 to 2015. Using the same threshold of the 95th percentile of 24-h intensity changes to define rapid intensification, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR30\">30<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;suggest that it is possible to detect an anthropogenic-related increase in Atlantic TC rapid intensification rates. Adopting a slightly different threshold of 30 kts\/24&nbsp;h to define rapid intensification, Ref.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y#ref-CR29\">29<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;identify no trend in TC rapid intensification tied to warming from 1950 to 2014, but do note key spatial and temporal patterns in rapid intensification events in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This study adds to the considerable previous research efforts described above by developing a broader assessment of overall basin-wide changes in the magnitude of peak Atlantic TC intensification rates. This work focuses on the Atlantic basin as a whole, rather than a subset of storms that occur in a specific portion of the basin. Furthermore, no arbitrary thresholds of intensification are used in this study to classify a TC rapid intensification event\u2014instead, the work fills a key knowledge gap by assessing overall changes to the peak intensification rates achieved by all TCs across 12-, 24- and 36-h windows during the 5 decades spanning from 1971 to 2020. Results indicate broad increases to observed TC intensification rates over the past 50\u00a0years. These findings illustrate a vital need to not only work towards climate mitigation to limit future warming and thus additional changes in TC intensification rates, but also for emergency preparedness plans and resilience measures that will allow our coastlines to adapt to TCs that have already begun to exhibit increased rates of strengthening.Source:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-42669-y<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More climate junk science made for climate alarmist and fans of climate propaganda. From Watts Up With That? This new paper in Nature Scientific Reports claims to identify a trend in hurricane intensification so significant that it\u2019s utterly absurd that hurricane forecasters and modelers wouldn\u2019t have noticed and identified it previously. This triggers an intense [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":284266,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"More climate junk science made  for climate alarmist and fans of climate propaganda. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-284259","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bWP","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":281346,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281346","url_meta":{"origin":284259,"position":0},"title":"Critical examination of hurricane intensification predictions.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Why climate models not yet worth their salt! As all hurricane researchers lament, model predictions of when and where hurricanes will intensify, have not improved much in the past 20 years. As recently as the early 2010s, weather model forecasts failed to predict 88 percent of rapidly intensifying tropical storms.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Massive-Hurricane-Superstorm.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286223,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286223","url_meta":{"origin":284259,"position":1},"title":"NCAR Study: Otis Rapid Hurricane Intensification was Not Driven by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a breath of fresh air in explaining rapid intensification of hurricanes, without playing the climate blame-game. From the paper:\u00a0\u2018Forecasting these \u201crapid intensification\u201d events is a challenge, in part because we do not fully understand the science behind rapid intensification.\u2018\u2013 Anthony From Watts Up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"atmospheric models\"","block_context":{"text":"atmospheric models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-35.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":396971,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=396971","url_meta":{"origin":284259,"position":2},"title":"NBC News\u2019 Claim of Climate Driven Rapid Hurricane Intensification is False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The recent NBC News article, \u201cClimate change is increasing the risk of rapidly intensifying storms. Hurricane Erin is the latest example,\u201d and a similar story published by\u00a0CNN, are yet additional instances of media hyperbole overshadowing scientific nuance. The claim that climate change is\u00a0driving\u00a0the increasingly frequent rapid intensification of hurricanes is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNH38ngDe7MEmoIKYp5qnLn6DElU25QT_6ccmXCCL1nFpWff8unEUJS6je234ktS4WyThDSaaBU5aE5mHaSb9c3CPh63_BA62uIOAnvFwYUzVdlbcj-EAb2K0j2Gl9PapTg9rC8KDcLB_VXnXxLgecNPOLS_g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNH38ngDe7MEmoIKYp5qnLn6DElU25QT_6ccmXCCL1nFpWff8unEUJS6je234ktS4WyThDSaaBU5aE5mHaSb9c3CPh63_BA62uIOAnvFwYUzVdlbcj-EAb2K0j2Gl9PapTg9rC8KDcLB_VXnXxLgecNPOLS_g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNH38ngDe7MEmoIKYp5qnLn6DElU25QT_6ccmXCCL1nFpWff8unEUJS6je234ktS4WyThDSaaBU5aE5mHaSb9c3CPh63_BA62uIOAnvFwYUzVdlbcj-EAb2K0j2Gl9PapTg9rC8KDcLB_VXnXxLgecNPOLS_g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNH38ngDe7MEmoIKYp5qnLn6DElU25QT_6ccmXCCL1nFpWff8unEUJS6je234ktS4WyThDSaaBU5aE5mHaSb9c3CPh63_BA62uIOAnvFwYUzVdlbcj-EAb2K0j2Gl9PapTg9rC8KDcLB_VXnXxLgecNPOLS_g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNH38ngDe7MEmoIKYp5qnLn6DElU25QT_6ccmXCCL1nFpWff8unEUJS6je234ktS4WyThDSaaBU5aE5mHaSb9c3CPh63_BA62uIOAnvFwYUzVdlbcj-EAb2K0j2Gl9PapTg9rC8KDcLB_VXnXxLgecNPOLS_g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":346415,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346415","url_meta":{"origin":284259,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane intensification (like Milton) HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2 (a repost)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricane intensification has nothing to do with CO2 climate change.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0skynews-storm-hurricane-florence_4419842.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":398638,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=398638","url_meta":{"origin":284259,"position":4},"title":"Sorry, New York Times, No Evidence Shows Hurricane Erin was Driven by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The New York Times (NYT) published an article titled \u201cHow Climate Change Affects Hurricanes Like Erin,\u201d in which they rely on rapid attribution analysis to claim that climate change is making rapidly intensifying hurricanes more likely, implying that the storm was worsened by global warming. This is false. Attribution studies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Attribution studies\"","block_context":{"text":"Attribution studies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=attribution-studies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQPHF72mXv3e9Hl6w4GkmDKEA9MFJSeFr0Wopv0fcxC3ESOwZhT6w40X6UAYrcxGI78wfkwiITDBMYRsaUxsZ7GSgSbeAoqsy8dobOGRV9pnerdsc9j-23odK48k_PwMEnwDerbx4vmBfaG4-VC-9RReeX21zw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":411107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411107","url_meta":{"origin":284259,"position":5},"title":"The AP Gets Hurricanes Wrong, Again, Melissa\u2019s Intensity Is Not Proof of Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a widely published\u00a0Associated Press\u00a0(AP) article,\u00a0\u201cClimate change fuels Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification to Category 5,\u201d\u00a0reporter Sibi Arasu claims that \u201cthe warming of the world\u2019s oceans caused by climate change helped double Hurricane Melissa\u2019s wind speed in less than 24 hours.\u201d This is highly misleading if not outright false. Scientific data\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=284259"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":284270,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284259\/revisions\/284270"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/284266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=284259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=284259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=284259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}