{"id":283848,"date":"2023-10-18T18:58:13","date_gmt":"2023-10-18T16:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283848"},"modified":"2023-10-18T18:58:16","modified_gmt":"2023-10-18T16:58:16","slug":"new-study-concludes-if-we-artificially-raise-the-cost-of-fertilizers-farmers-will-use-less-and-grow-less-food","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283848","title":{"rendered":"New Study Concludes: If We Artificially Raise the Cost of Fertilizers, Farmers Will Use Less and Grow Less Food"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fight against Fertilizers and Farmers continues. No farmers, no food.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course that\u2019s not how this one is framed. It\u2019s all about water quality.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2302087120#<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We utilize a coupled economy\u2013agroecology\u2013hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government\u2019s social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152\/ton of CO2<\/sub>-equivalents) to fossil fuel\u2013based CO2<\/sub> emissions. This policy raises energy costs and, importantly for agriculture, boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizer production. At the highest carbon price, US carbon emissions are reduced by about 50%, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rise by about 90%, leading to an approximate 15% reduction in fertilizer applications for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin. Corn and soybean production declines by about 7%, increasing crop prices by 6%, while nitrate leaching declines by about 10%. Simulated nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico decreases by 8%, ultimately shrinking the average midsummer area of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area by 3% and hypoxic volume by 4%. We also consider the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and find a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon. Wetland restoration alone exhibited spillover effects that increased nitrate leaching in other parts of the basin which were mitigated with the inclusion of the carbon policy. We conclude that a national climate policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States would have important water quality cobenefits.https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2302087120#<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

They\u2019ve got models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Evaluation using four coupled models to relate carbon pricing to nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico. (A:\u00a0Left) Integrated modeling framework. The ENVISAGE global economic model determines the change in agricultural input prices due to climate policy. These price changes feed into the SIMPLE-G-US-CS gridded economic model of corn\u2013soy production which has been calibrated to capture the yield responses to changes in nitrogen fertilizer applications estimated using the Agro-IBIS agroecosystem model. When confronted with these input price changes, farmers alter their fertilizer usage, thereby changing nitrogen leachate. Nitrogen leachate is routed through the Mississippi River Basin hydrologic system into the Gulf of Mexico using the WBM hydrological model. Imposed policies are depicted in white or black boxes, and uncertainties in key model parameters characterized by sensitivity analyses are listed in gray boxes (<\/em>Table 1<\/a>). (B:\u00a0Right) Spatial distribution of the relative changes of key factors including crop output (top maps), nitrogen fertilizer applied (Middle), and fraction of nitrate flux ultimately entering the Gulf (Bottom). Callouts identify points in the modeling framework where each factor is calculated. Inset values for each map provide the basin-wide average value for each depicted variable (blue), and the total change for basin export in black. (C:\u00a0Top) Nonlinear response between fertilizer application rate with crop yield and nitrate leachate below the root zone represented, respectively, by Gompertz and quadratic functions. Callout identifies the grid cell location of this example response.<\/em>
https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2302087120#<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

They do note that their prescriptions will reduce agricultural output, although they likely underestimate the impact. That\u2019s ok though. We can just buy more from overseas farmers. I kid you not. Emphasis mine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The carbon prices imposed in this study resulted in\u00a0consequential reductions on the order of 7.2% in corn and soy output<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0from the Mississippi River Basin\u2014roughly 20,000 tons of corn-equivalent output. SIMPLE-G-US-CS accommodated reduced corn and soy production through reduced domestic use (primarily in livestock feed), as well as diminished grain exports.\u00a0In response to the elevated corn\u2013soy prices, foreign producers would expand production.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2302087120#<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Draconian Climate Policies fix everything. Don\u2019t worry. Someone else will feed you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

For more on the war on agriculture visit our ClimateTV page<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The fight against Fertilizers and Farmers continues. No farmers, no food. From Watts Up With That? Of course that\u2019s not how this one is framed. It\u2019s all about water quality. Abstract We utilize a coupled economy\u2013agroecology\u2013hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":283856,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The fight against Fertilizers and Farmers continues. No farmers, no food.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818090,691818076,691823015,691823731,691823732,691823729,691823730],"class_list":{"0":"post-283848","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-warning","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-gulf-of-mexico","12":"tag-mississippi-basin","13":"tag-nitrogen-fertilizer","14":"tag-us-climate-policy","15":"tag-water-quality","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Fertilizer-Nitrogen-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1286&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bQc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":248795,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=248795","url_meta":{"origin":283848,"position":0},"title":"True, Daily Signal, Climate Change Policy Harms Farmers and Food Prices","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cEuropean farmers are being told that because of the aim for \u201cnet-zero emissions\u201d of greenhouse gases and other so-called pollutants in 2050, their industry is being phased out if they can\u2019t adapt,\u201d Furchtgott-Roth writes.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-825.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-825.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-825.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-825.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-825.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":246187,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=246187","url_meta":{"origin":283848,"position":1},"title":"Thanks, Epoch Times, for Reporting on How Net-Zero Policies Are Destroying British Agriculture","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Evans explains that the British government\u2019s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has pushed policies on farmers that focus more on climate change than on food production. In some cases, DEGRA is paying farmers to remove their land from production.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-984.png?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-984.png?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-984.png?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-984.png?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-984.png?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214486,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214486","url_meta":{"origin":283848,"position":2},"title":"In Defense of Fertilizers, Farmers and Food","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The UN and WEF have declared a War on Fertilizers with conflicts erupting in Sri Lanka, the Netherlands and Canada.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-812.png?fit=850%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-812.png?fit=850%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-812.png?fit=850%2C400&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-812.png?fit=850%2C400&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":221421,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=221421","url_meta":{"origin":283848,"position":3},"title":"Climate Activists Attacking Fertiliser Use, Mass Produced Food","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c\u2026 absent severe reductions in fossil fuel emissions, some places will likely have to give up farming entirely in the near future. \u2026\u201d","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1441.png?fit=750%2C422&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1441.png?fit=750%2C422&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1441.png?fit=750%2C422&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1441.png?fit=750%2C422&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210264,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210264","url_meta":{"origin":283848,"position":4},"title":"Trudeau Wants Canada to Imitate the Dutch and Sri Lanka","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From The Counter Signal,\u00a0in italics with my bolds As per a Government of Saskatchewan news release, both the\u00a0Alberta and Saskatchewan\u2019s Ministers of Agriculture have expressed \u201cprofound disappointment\u201d\u00a0in Trudeau\u2019s decision to attempt to reduce nitrogen emissions from fertilizer. \u201cWe\u2019re really concerned with this arbitrary goal,\u201d Saskatchewan Minister of Agriculture David Marit\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0trudeau-fertilizer-1024x576-1.webp?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0trudeau-fertilizer-1024x576-1.webp?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0trudeau-fertilizer-1024x576-1.webp?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0trudeau-fertilizer-1024x576-1.webp?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288606,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288606","url_meta":{"origin":283848,"position":5},"title":"Phony Nitrogen Crisis for Making War on\u00a0Farmers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThis whole green agenda is causing huge burdens.\u201d From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz A war against farmers has emerged, threatening to push them off the land they\u2019ve farmed for generations. As small and mid-sized farms close their doors, governments and corporate entities can scoop up the land.\u00a0 Those in control\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/06276050.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/06276050.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/06276050.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/06276050.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/06276050.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=283848"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283848\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283857,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283848\/revisions\/283857"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/283856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=283848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=283848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=283848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}