{"id":283797,"date":"2023-10-18T13:47:03","date_gmt":"2023-10-18T11:47:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283797"},"modified":"2023-10-18T13:47:07","modified_gmt":"2023-10-18T11:47:07","slug":"mid-october-2023-arctic-ice-recovering-rapidly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283797","title":{"rendered":"Mid October 2023 Arctic Ice Recovering\u00a0Rapidly"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Arctic ice was rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The animation shows Arctic ice rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.\u00a0 Several days exceeded the 17 year average with yesterday slightly in deficit. The graph below shows the distribution of ice across the Arctic Regions with 2023 compare to average, to some notable years and to estimates from SII (Sea Ice Index)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note that refreezing starts mid September and accelerates upward.  October has already added 1.4M km2 and will likely end up 3M higher than end of September. As the table below shows, the ice extents are tracking the 17 year average and 600k km2 greater than 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region<\/strong><\/td>2023289<\/strong><\/td>Day 289<\/strong><\/td>2023-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2007289<\/strong><\/td>2023-2007<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>6291575<\/td>6397434 <\/td>-105859 <\/td>5685365<\/td>606210 <\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>545048<\/td>740358 <\/td>-195309 <\/td>815519<\/td>-270471 <\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>399345<\/td>309528 <\/td>89817 <\/td>98615<\/td>300730 <\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>495351<\/td>569412 <\/td>-74061 <\/td>32547<\/td>462804 <\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>578928<\/td>453308 <\/td>125620 <\/td>553919<\/td>25009 <\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>178575<\/td>148145 <\/td>30430 <\/td>170928<\/td>7647 <\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>22291<\/td>42524 <\/td>-20233 <\/td>25377<\/td>-3086 <\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>422335<\/td>341130 <\/td>81206 <\/td>446006<\/td>-23670 <\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>103295<\/td>100033 <\/td>3262 <\/td>92878<\/td>10416 <\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>362514<\/td>583556 <\/td>-221042 <\/td>502605<\/td>-140091 <\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>208<\/td>10894 <\/td>-10686 <\/td>1936<\/td>-1729 <\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>3179853<\/td>3096957 <\/td>82896 <\/td>2943760<\/td>236093 <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday the overall extent was ~6.30M km2, ~100k km2 below average (2%).  Deficits were mostly in Beaufort Sea and CAA, offset by surpluses in Chukchi,Laptev, and Greenland seas, along with Central Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previous post:\u00a0 2023 September Arctic Outlook and Results Not Scary<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.\u00a0 This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;\u00a0 MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.\u00a0 For comparison the 2007 September values were 4.30M for MASIE and 4.27M for SII.\u00a0 The predictions below refer to the SII value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2023: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.35 and 4.80 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 2.88 to 5.47 million square kilometers. We note that the lowest two forecasts predict a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers), but these forecasts are outliers relative to the other contributions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are predictions for the September 2023 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2023 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (17 year average is 2006 to 2022 inclusive).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The graph puts 2023 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2023 was slightly below the 17-year average for the first 5 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained or exceeded average through August. September was below average slightly and above 2007. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year. \u00a02007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012. \u00a0SII 2023 was running below MASIE except for May\/June and is currently just below MASIE and above 2007 and 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Arctic ice was rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.\u00a0 From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows Arctic ice rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":283806,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The Arctic ice was rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.\u00a0","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819671,691823485,691823724,691823484],"class_list":["post-283797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-arctic-ice","tag-great-arctic-cyclone","tag-mid-october-2023","tag-noaa-sea-ice-index","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bPn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":288914,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288914","url_meta":{"origin":283797,"position":0},"title":"Mid-Nov. 2023 Arctic Ice Grows to 10\u00a0Wadhams","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows the rapid growth of Arctic ice extent during November 2023, from day 304 to yesterday, day 319.\u00a0 For all of the fuss over the September minimum, little is said about Arctic ice growing back rapidly; that\u2019s 4 Wadhams in October, plus another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"10 Wadhams\"","block_context":{"text":"10 Wadhams","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=10-wadhams"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0multiyear-ice-off-greenland-nsidc.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0multiyear-ice-off-greenland-nsidc.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0multiyear-ice-off-greenland-nsidc.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0multiyear-ice-off-greenland-nsidc.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0multiyear-ice-off-greenland-nsidc.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282822,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282822","url_meta":{"origin":283797,"position":1},"title":"October 2023 Arctic Ice Flash\u00a0Freezing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"All climate models and doomed predictions of Ice - Free Arctic had been wrong. From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows the rapid refreezing of Arctic ice from September 30 to yesterday October 9.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":237533,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=237533","url_meta":{"origin":283797,"position":2},"title":"Arctic Ice In Perspective 2022","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"When Arctic ice is melting in summer until mid-September, warmists stoke fears about ice disappearing in the North. In fact, the pattern of Arctic ice seen in historical perspective is not alarming.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-78.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-78.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-78.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-78.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-78.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278030,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278030","url_meta":{"origin":283797,"position":3},"title":"September Outlook Arctic Ice\u00a02023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022. \u00a0The way MASIE is going, this September looks to be nearly average unless some bad weather intervenes.\u00a0 While the daily minimum for the year occurs mid September, ice extent on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282685,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282685","url_meta":{"origin":283797,"position":4},"title":"2023 September Arctic Outlook and Results Not\u00a0Scary","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.\u00a0 This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;\u00a0 MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.\u00a0 For comparison the 2007 September\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Artic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Artic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=artic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282425,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282425","url_meta":{"origin":283797,"position":5},"title":"Veteran German Meteorologist: Arctic Showing \u201cSignificant Trend Towards More Ice!\u201d Since 2007","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From NoTricksZone By\u00a0P Gosselin\u00a0on\u00a07. October 2023 Retired German meteorologist\u00a0Klaus-Eckart Puls writes at the European Institute for Climate and Energy\u00a0(EIKE) that the Arctic has stopped melting over the past years. By Klaus-Eckart Puls The above polynomial curve chart plots the Arctic sea ice minimum for each year since 1990. It has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=283797"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283797\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283810,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283797\/revisions\/283810"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/283806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=283797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=283797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=283797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}