{"id":283720,"date":"2023-10-17T20:12:59","date_gmt":"2023-10-17T18:12:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283720"},"modified":"2023-10-17T20:13:02","modified_gmt":"2023-10-17T18:13:02","slug":"solving-the-mystery-of-global-temperature","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283720","title":{"rendered":"Solving the mystery of global temperature"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that\u00a0water vapor is the dominant absorber in the Earth’s greenhouse effect can lead to a flawed narrative that anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is not important nor a significant driver of climate warming.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From\u00a0CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is nothing mysterious about it unless you are totally blind to the natural forcing that supplies the reason. It should at least raise questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Water Vapor (WV) is by far a more important \u201cheat-trapping \u201d gas than CO2.  While we take great delight in measuring CO2 increase, no one on the other side of the issue says boo about water vapor. They adapt the Casablanca Louis Renault attitude ( they probably don\u2019t know who that is). \u201c <\/strong>I\u2019m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I stated long ago this warming was their San Jacinto, that it was the trap set to destroy the phony climate war missive.  And now they are trying to scramble by saying it is \u201cmysterious\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I will review it again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO2 has been on a steady rise since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The deceptive and despicable practice of making PARTS PER MILLION equal axis to years makes one think this is going through the roof. Imagine if the years were on a scale of millions, not decades. You would not even see it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That realization alone should make one stop to think about the agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They simply ignore Le Chetilier\u2019s principle in this matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If CO2 was doing this, why was there no appreciable change in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from 1950 to 1990? ( SST being the prime source of water vapor and hence the input). As for \u201cheat-trapping gas, CO2 is too tiny to do that. Both have radiative properties, but CO2\u2019s bands are saturated. So the argument that 1.8 ppm\/yr of CO2 is \u201ctrapping\u201d heat is non-provable. Water vapor would be a more likely candidate. But there is no real quantification. All we get is the temperature and CO2. That should make anyone suspicious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But no change in SST.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But when increased input from underwater sources started,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

the increase in SST was almost a perfect match since oceans tend to lag a bit, and the increases PRECEDED THE RISE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is a cumulative build-up of heat in the oceans and then the air-forced responses. The increase in WV warmed the planet disproportionately, leading to a La Nina base state in the actual reaction as seen in the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), a far more accurate measurement of the ENSO and its reaction in the atmosphere. Another largely ignored metric. Since the Super Nino of 97-98, the La Nina has dominated. This is due to increased easterlies in the tropical Pacific. The only place water will cool is in the eastern Pacific off South America due to upwelling from the change in the Global Wind Oscillation. Do you see what I am doing here? UNLESS YOU HAVE A BOTTOM LINE WHERE YOU FORECAST GLOBALLY AND DO IT WITH THE RISK OF GETTING PAID, WHY WOULD YOU EVEN LOOK AT THIS? In fact, if it countered your missive, it was threatening your belief and economic system, and you would try to hide it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I have written on this a bunch of times. It\u2019s discouraging that many meteorologists are all agog at the El Nino without understanding the environment around it may not be having the same effect as others. How can we tell? By this time in 1997 and 2015, the MEI was already at almost record-high levels. This year, it is barely to an El Nino. The weaker MEIs are the colder winters. So that is a hint as to what kind of winter we are likely to have, which we actually have been showing since last winter ended on Weatherbell.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the Oceanic Nino index does indicate Water Vapor input is stronger. Again, the hypothesis is that the build-up of warmth in the oceans supplies a steady state increase in WV, but when reactionary Oceanic Nino El Ninos go off, the input OF WV IS HIGHER. Hence, the step-up function of warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, what happens when you have a warmed ocean all over and then a strong warming in the ENSO areas takes place?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Look at that difference from last year!  There has to be a marked increase in WV, and another step-up function starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why is it not showing up in the MEI?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, look at the difference in the warmth in the western and northern Pacific vs the last time the Oceanic Nino Index was this strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is much more cool in the western Pacific, and so the reactions are different. By being warm all over, the reaction is different in the Atmosphere. Again crucial to winter forecasting. Also, the nature of these El Ninos is they don\u2019t last more than a year. Consequently, a flip to the La Nina comes right back next year, and the result is likely to be a hurricane season from hell.  But all this has nothing to do with CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the great volcanic eruption last year, which was underwater-based, actually should wake people up to what is going on that they can not see. We saw this one, and unlike the great above-water eruptions, this sent immense amounts of water vapor into the air. So we had the perfect storm of cumulative buildup, El Nino response, and then the reaction of excess water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mystery solved unless you refuse to look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author<\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n


Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is the author of \u201cThe Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won\u2019t Hear From Al Gore \u2014 and Others\u201d which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The fact that\u00a0water vapor is the dominant absorber in the Earth’s greenhouse effect can lead to a flawed narrative that anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is not important nor a significant driver of climate warming. From\u00a0CFACT By\u00a0Joe Bastardi There is nothing mysterious about it unless you are totally blind to the natural forcing that supplies the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":283743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The fact that\u00a0water vapor is the dominant absorber in the Earth's greenhouse effect can lead to a flawed narrative that anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is not important nor a significant driver of climate warming.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818076,691818288,691823710,691822276,691823711,691822277],"class_list":{"0":"post-283720","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-co2","9":"tag-global-temperature","10":"tag-phony-climate-war","11":"tag-sea-surface-temperature-sst","12":"tag-volcanic-eruption","13":"tag-water-vapor-wv","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00image-454-1024x576-1.webp?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bO8","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":326393,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=326393","url_meta":{"origin":283720,"position":0},"title":"Water Vapor Absorbs 84 Times More Radiation Than CO2 \u2026 Clouds Drove 89% Of 1982-2018 Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cCO2 is only present in the atmosphere in trace amounts (0.04%) and lacks sufficient enthalpy to have any measurable effect on the atmosphere\u2019s temperature.\u201d \u2013 Nelson and Nelson, 2024","rel":"","context":"In \"CH4 (methane)\"","block_context":{"text":"CH4 (methane)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ch4-methane-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":331752,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331752","url_meta":{"origin":283720,"position":1},"title":"All things Equal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In an interesting linkedin debate between Tinus Pulles and me, two subjects came up that are related to one another and too complicated for a comment. First is Tinus\u2019 question, \u201cWill more atmospheric CO2, all other variables being equal, lead to a higher surface temperature.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":395590,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=395590","url_meta":{"origin":283720,"position":2},"title":"New Study Thoroughly Disassembles The CO2-Drives-Climate Assumption In One Fell Swoop","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Not only does CO2 have no discernible effect on climate, but any alleged anthropogenic role within the hypothetical greenhouse effect is not detectable either.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQOU14aPp1HjybpPod8BuWcKZxZUhRM_BcaIzgm0qA47j1Zn1nTzS_woHHaUm55jJPBqVF2iq2fRNZiV5Pg4lndByx-QD2DpeNSqOV7zCeDs5lh4_NPChGxmtGUNQ4XD666D9IY90mIemq-foXE4ZfOKP8E2xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQOU14aPp1HjybpPod8BuWcKZxZUhRM_BcaIzgm0qA47j1Zn1nTzS_woHHaUm55jJPBqVF2iq2fRNZiV5Pg4lndByx-QD2DpeNSqOV7zCeDs5lh4_NPChGxmtGUNQ4XD666D9IY90mIemq-foXE4ZfOKP8E2xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQOU14aPp1HjybpPod8BuWcKZxZUhRM_BcaIzgm0qA47j1Zn1nTzS_woHHaUm55jJPBqVF2iq2fRNZiV5Pg4lndByx-QD2DpeNSqOV7zCeDs5lh4_NPChGxmtGUNQ4XD666D9IY90mIemq-foXE4ZfOKP8E2xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQOU14aPp1HjybpPod8BuWcKZxZUhRM_BcaIzgm0qA47j1Zn1nTzS_woHHaUm55jJPBqVF2iq2fRNZiV5Pg4lndByx-QD2DpeNSqOV7zCeDs5lh4_NPChGxmtGUNQ4XD666D9IY90mIemq-foXE4ZfOKP8E2xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQOU14aPp1HjybpPod8BuWcKZxZUhRM_BcaIzgm0qA47j1Zn1nTzS_woHHaUm55jJPBqVF2iq2fRNZiV5Pg4lndByx-QD2DpeNSqOV7zCeDs5lh4_NPChGxmtGUNQ4XD666D9IY90mIemq-foXE4ZfOKP8E2xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351093,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351093","url_meta":{"origin":283720,"position":3},"title":"COP 29: The U.S. can finally escape the Paris Climate Accords","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"During Donald Trump\u2019s years after he pulled us out of the Paris Accords, the global temperature had its ups and downs but was essentially level. 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As I\u2019ll demonstrate in a future blog post, these models are ill-equipped to anticipate cooling periods. When faced with a potential cold spell, they simply adjust their feedback mechanisms, reset to a new\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"arctic temperatures\"","block_context":{"text":"arctic temperatures","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-temperatures"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Clouds-Blue-Sky.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Clouds-Blue-Sky.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Clouds-Blue-Sky.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Clouds-Blue-Sky.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Clouds-Blue-Sky.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":367538,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367538","url_meta":{"origin":283720,"position":5},"title":"New Study: Ocean Warming Is Supposed to Increase Water Vapor \u2013 But It\u2019s Been Declining Since 2008","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cOur findings are unexpected: despite rising sea surface temperatures, global Eo [ocean evaporation\/water vapor] has decreased in the most recent decade.\u201d \u2013 Ma et al., 2025","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=283720"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283720\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283745,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283720\/revisions\/283745"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/283743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=283720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=283720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=283720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}