{"id":283436,"date":"2023-10-15T21:11:31","date_gmt":"2023-10-15T19:11:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283436"},"modified":"2023-10-15T21:11:35","modified_gmt":"2023-10-15T19:11:35","slug":"study-climate-change-could-lead-to-food-unrest-in-50-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283436","title":{"rendered":"Study: Climate Change Could Lead to Food Unrest in 50 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Venezuelan protesters run away from the police during a protest over food shortage and against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government in Caracas, Venezuela, June 10, 2016. (Photo by Carlos Garcia Rawlins\/Reuters)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Just another MAYBE but we don\u00b4t really know what will happen STUDY.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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If only there was a way to preserve and stockpile of food, to help carry us through shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Climate change could lead to food-relatedcivil unrest in UK within 50 years, say experts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sarah Bridle<\/a> Professor of Food, Climate and Society, University of York
Aled Jones<\/a> Professor & Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University
Published: October 12, 2023 11.31pm AEDT<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The emptying of supermarket shelves<\/a> during the COVID pandemic demonstrated the chaos that disruption to the UK\u2019s food supply can provoke. Could this type of disruption have a different cause in the future? And what might the impact on society be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the questions we sought to answer in our new study<\/a>, which involved surveying 58 leading UK food experts spanning academia, policy, charitable organisations and business. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our findings indicate that food shortages stemming from extreme weather events<\/a> could potentially lead to civil unrest in the UK within 50 years. Shortages of staple carbohydrates like wheat, bread, pasta and cereal appear to be the most likely triggers of such unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK\u2019s food system appears to be particularly vulnerable to significant disruption<\/a>. This vulnerability can be attributed, in part, to its emphasis on efficiency<\/a> at the expense of resilience (the ability to withstand and recover from shocks). This approach includes a heavy reliance on seasonal labour and practices like \u201cjust-in-time<\/a>\u201d supply chains, where products are delivered precisely when needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/climate-change-could-lead-to-food-related-civil-unrest-in-uk-within-50-years-say-experts-214754<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The abstract of the study;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by Aled Jones<\/a> 1,*,\u2020<\/sup><\/a><\/a>, Sarah Bridle<\/a> 2,\u2020<\/sup><\/a><\/a>, Katherine Denby<\/a> 3<\/sup><\/a>, Riaz Bhunnoo<\/a> 4<\/sup>, Daniel Morton<\/a> 5<\/sup><\/a>, Lucy Stanbrough<\/a> 6<\/sup>, Barnaby Coupe<\/a> 7<\/sup>, Vanessa Pilley<\/a> 8<\/sup>, Tim Benton<\/a> 9<\/sup>, Pete Falloon<\/a> 10,11<\/sup>, Tom K. Matthews<\/a> 12<\/sup>, Saher Hasnain<\/a> 13<\/sup><\/a>, John S. Heslop-Harrison<\/a> 14<\/sup>, Simon Beard<\/a> 15<\/sup><\/a>, Julie Pierce<\/a> 16<\/sup>, Jules Pretty<\/a> 17<\/sup><\/a>, Monika Zurek<\/a> 13<\/sup><\/a>, Alexandra Johnstone<\/a> 18<\/sup><\/a>, Pete Smith<\/a> 19<\/sup><\/a>, Neil Gunn<\/a> 6<\/sup>, Molly Watson<\/a> 2<\/sup>, Edward Pope<\/a> 10<\/sup>, Asaf Tzachor<\/a> 15,20<\/sup><\/a>, Caitlin Douglas<\/a> 12<\/sup>, Christian Reynolds<\/a> 21<\/sup><\/a>, Neil Ward<\/a> 22<\/sup><\/a>, Jez Fredenburgh<\/a> 22<\/sup>, Clare Pettinger<\/a> 23<\/sup><\/a><\/a>, Tom Quested<\/a> 24<\/sup>, Juan Pablo Cordero<\/a> 2<\/sup><\/a>, Clive Mitchell<\/a> 25<\/sup>, Carrie Bewick<\/a> 26<\/sup>, Cameron Brown<\/a> 6<\/sup>, Christopher Brown<\/a> 27<\/sup>, Paul J. Burgess<\/a> 28<\/sup><\/a>, Andy Challinor<\/a> 29<\/sup>, Andrew Cottrell<\/a> 10<\/sup><\/a>, Thomas Crocker<\/a> 10<\/sup><\/a>, Thomas George<\/a> 8<\/sup>, Charles J. Godfray<\/a> 30<\/sup>, Rosie S. Hails<\/a> 31<\/sup>, John Ingram<\/a> 12<\/sup><\/a>, Tim Lang<\/a> 20<\/sup>, Fergus Lyon<\/a> 32<\/sup>, Simon Lusher<\/a> 6<\/sup>, Tom MacMillan<\/a> 33<\/sup><\/a>, Sue Newton<\/a> 6<\/sup>, Simon Pearson<\/a> 34<\/sup><\/a>, Sue Pritchard<\/a> 35<\/sup>, Dale Sanders<\/a> 36<\/sup>, Angelina Sanderson Bellamy<\/a> 37<\/sup><\/a>, Megan Steven<\/a> 6<\/sup>, Alastair Trickett<\/a> 38<\/sup>, Andrew Voysey<\/a> 39<\/sup>, Christine Watson<\/a> 40<\/sup><\/a>, Darren Whitby<\/a> 16<\/sup> and Kerry Whiteside<\/a> 41<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as \u201cPossible (20\u201350%)\u201d, \u201cMore likely than not (50\u201380%)\u201d or \u201cVery likely (>80%)\u201d over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.Read more:\u00a0https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2071-1050\/15\/20\/14783<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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